Championship Chases Headed to Phoenix

T

TonyB

Guest
A quick look at the championship chases in NASCAR's top 3 series.


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WINSTON CUP

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Matt Kenseth (Leader)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (-258)
Kevin Harvick (-262)
Jimmie Johnson (-266)
Jeff Gordon (-296)
Ryan Newman (-349)


Who's Out?
Kenseth has mathematically eliminated everyone from 8th place (Bobby Labonte) down in the standings from contention for the championship. 1 driver was eliminated at Atlanta - Bobby Labonte.
Should Kenseth start every race (and finish last) then everyone from 7th place (Tony Stewart) down is eliminated from championship contention. 1 driver was eliminated at Martinsville - Tony Stewart.

Next Up
Sunday 11/2 Checker Auto Parts 500

How the contenders have fared at Phoenix
Matt Kenseth has an average finish of 15.67 with 1 win in 3 races.
Kevin Harvick has an average finish of 17.00 with no top 10 finishes in 2 races.
Dale Earnhardt Jr has an average finish of 23.00 with 1 top 5 finish in 3 races.
Ryan Newman has an average finish of 33.00 with no top 10 finishes in 3 races.
Jimmie Johnson finished 15th in his only Phoenix race.
Jeff Gordon has an average finish of 9.90 with 44 top 5 finishes in 10 races.

Remaining Races - Best Among The Contenders At The Track
11/9 - Rockingham - Jeff Gordon 14.90 average finish.
11/16 - Homestead - Ryan Newman 6.00 average finish.

Championship Outlook
Matt Kenseth's magic number is now 21st place.
The real race is for second place with 8 points seperating 2nd place Dale Earnhardt Jr and 4th place Jimmie Johnson with Kevin Harvick sandwiched in-between.
In Kenseth leaves Phoenix with a lead of 371 points, he will clinch the championship. Most likely he will clinch the championship next weekend at Rockingham.




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BUSCH SERIES

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David Green (Leader)
Scott Riggs (-13)
Jason Keller (-35)
Ron Hornaday (-35)
Brain Vickers (-49)

Who's Out?
Green has mathematically eliminated everyone from 10th place (Stacy Compton) down in the standings from contention for the championship. 2 drivers were eliminated at Atlanta - Stacy Compton and Mike Bliss.
Should Green start every race (and finish last) then everyone from 7th place (Ksey Khane) down is eliminated from championship contention. 4 drivers were eliminated at Atlanta - Kasey Khane, Scott Wimmer, Johnny Sauter, Stacy Compton.

Next Up
Saturday 11/1 - Bashas' Supermarkets 200

How the contenders have fared at Phoenix
David Green has an average finish of 9.67 with 2 top 10 finishes in 3 races.
Scott Riggs finished 40th in his only Phoenix race.
Jason Keller has an average finish of 14.50 with 3 top 10 finishes in 4 races.
Ron Hornaday has an average finish of 6.75 with 3 top 10 finishes in 4 races.
Brian Vickers finished 11th in his only Phoenix race.

Remaining Races - Best Among The Contenders At The Track
11/8 - Rockingham - Riggs - Average finish 13.00
11/15 - Homestead - Green and Riggs - Average finish 13.00

Championship Outlook
Brian Vickers ecountered early trouble. The #5 crew wasn't willing to go 1 lap down to fix the car and that wound up costing them big time. The tire blew, ripped the fender apart, and ruined Vickers day and possibly his championship hopes.
David Green meanwhile raced conservatively and finished 8th. He now has the points lead by 13 points over Scott Riggs.
Riggs and Vickers haven't raced often at the remaining tracks, so they are a little hard to read. Riggs had early trouble last year at Phoenix and finished 40th. After that he has the best average finish at Rockingham and ties for the best average finish at Homestead.
If the 5 championship contenders were to match there average finishes at the 3 remaining races (without any bonus points considered) the final points would look like this:
David Green (Leader)
Ron Hornaday (-38)
Jason Keller (-60)
Scott Riggs (-95)
Brain Vickers (-116)







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CRAFTSMAN TRUCK

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Brendan Gaughan (Leader)
Travis Kvapil (-45)
Ted Musgrave (-69)
Dennis Setzer (-72)

Who's Out?
Gaughan has mathematically eliminated everyone from 8th place (Carl Edwards) down in the standings from contention for the championship. 1 drivers was eliminated at Martinsville - Carl Edwards.
Should Gaughan start every race (and finish last) then everyone from 6th place (Bobby Hamilton) down is eliminated from championship contention. 2 drivers were eliminated at Martinsville - Bobby Hamilton and Rick Crawford.

Next Up
Friday 10/31 - Chevy Silverado 150

How the contenders have fared at Phoenix
Brendan Gaughan has finsihed 13th in both of his 2 Phoenix races.
Travis Kvapil has finsihed 4th and 9th in his 2 Phoenix races.
Ted Musgrave has finished 2nd and 6th in his 2 Phoenix races.
Dennis Setzer has an average finish of 14.67 with 2 top 10 finishes in his 3 Phoenix races.

Remaining Races - Best Among The Contenders At The Track
11/14 - Homestead - Ted Musgrave 1.50 average finish

Championship Outlook
Brendan Gaughan once again expanded his championship lead (30 points to 45 points) over second place. Ted Musgrave edges closer gaining 4 points. Dennis Setzer made up 45 points.
The good news for Gaughan is that Travis Kvapil will have to finish several postions in front of him in the remaining races to catch him. The bad news for Gaughan is that Kvapil better average finishes at both remaining tracks. And don't overlook Ted Musgrave who has significantly better finsihes at these 2 tracks from both Gaughan and Kvapil.
If the 4 championship contenders were to match there average finishes at the 2 remaining races (without any bonus points considered) the final points would look like this:
Ted Musgrave (Leader)
Brendan Gaughan (-12)
Travis Kvapil (-27)
Dennis Setzer (-111)
Bonus points in the 2 remaining races could determine the championship.
 
Correct me if I am wrong,guys....but if Kenseth finishes eight positions ahead of Jr. and/or Harvick this weekend isn't the title chase over? Seems like it to me,but just off the top of my head.
 
Depends on where those 8 positions are... 1 - 9 is a bigger gap than 21-29...

Technical the spread has to 371 points to be clinched ans that would be a gain on 113 points.

Now if the spread is 303 points AND Kenseth starts that last 2 races, then he would have clinched, but that assumes that he starts the final 2 races.

They won't be spraying champagne at Phoenix unless the lead is 371 points. Most likely they'll be spraying it at Rockingham where his lead at the end of the race need only be 186 points to clinch the championship.
 
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