conducted.
It depends on whether or not he has to. If he has to wreck half the field to stay alive he will. That's Harvick 101
Yeah, the JGR guys are winning more but Harvick has been the most consistent. I wouldn't count Keselowski out either. I think it'll be Harvick, Kez, and two of the JGR/FRR drivers in the championship four.
I think he's certainly the favorite there but as we saw in that race and in last fall's all it takes is an untimely caution or weather to throw a wrench in the works.
The Pit Rho probability model for Chase week 2 has been released, and it continues to show Harvick as their favorite for the Cup title. Link to article. I'll point out that the Pit Rho simulation model loves the 4 team and rates the 4 as a heavy favorite just about every week. Personally, I'm pulling for karma to bite Harvick hard on his whiny little ass, but that's just me..
From the article:
“Harvick and Johnson are fast enough to make it to the next round,” said Josh Browne, a former Sprint Cup crew chief and now co-founder at Pit Rho, “but they’ll need to limit mental lapses to make it to Homestead with a shot at the title. They both had fast cars Sunday, but mistakes took them out of contention for the win. The current Chase format really penalizes mistakes.”
The interesting area right now is the cutoff for 12th between Jamie McMurray (right now at 78 percent) and Kyle Larson (at 59 percent). The two Ganassi teammates are straddling the border for 12th place probability. Larson has a lower chance of making the next round, but a higher chance of winning the title. That’s because Larson has had more volatile results this season, including a win and running up front late in many races. McMurray has been more of a steady burn.
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I really don't know anything about Pit Rho or how sophisticated or rigorous their model may be. They came out with these multi-colored probability charts last year for the chase, and NBCSN.com did a short article each week. It is an interesting way to summarize how the probabilities cascade downwards for each elimination round.
So I don't vouch for Pit Rho, and for Nascar quant, I prefer David Smith of Motorsports Analytics (but he also does not reveal his proprietary model parameters).
I've seen Andrew Maness tweet out that list before but not with the figures. I'm not surprised that the difference between the most random non-plate oval (Bristol) and the plate tracks is bigger than the gap from the most random non-plate oval to the least (Kentucky). I've been told on here that plate tracks have no more of a random element than any other type but that certainly isn't the case.I really don't know anything about Pit Rho or how sophisticated or rigorous their model may be. They came out with these multi-colored probability charts last year for the chase, and NBCSN.com did a short article each week. It is an interesting way to summarize how the probabilities cascade downwards for each elimination round.
Pit Rho has a web site for fantasy players ( https://fantasy.pitrho.com ). I have no interest in fantasy sports, but I signed up for the free service level, which shows their probabilities to win each week. I get the impression the weekly model is influenced by: type of track or maybe the specific track for this week or maybe both; how the car has performed in general over the last one or two years; and weekly qualifying results have a substantial impact.
Obviously, there must be a random element as well, and I know that Pit Rho has analyzed randomness on a per track basis.
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The bottom line is they rate Harvick the favorite almost every week, Kyle Busch second, and a big drop in probabilities after that. My gut says these two are over-valued by the model. But maybe that is my bias showing through, as those two are the drivers I dislike the most..
I defer to your credentials and experience here.
