The Modern Day Chase Format: A Historical What If?

The Nature Boy

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I was bored recently so I started thinking of a historical what-if. What if NASCAR had introduced the modern day Chase format when they signed their FOX/NBC contacts? I'm going through and putting together Chases based on the first 26 races of every season from 2001 onward.

I'll start off by posting the 2001 NASCAR Winston Cup Series Chase participants:

  1. 24 – Jeff Gordon [5 wins]
  2. 88 – Dale Jarrett [4 wins]
  3. 20 – Tony Stewart [3 wins]
  4. 28 – Ricky Rudd [2 wins]
  5. 40 – Sterling Marlin [1 win]
  6. 18 – Bobby Labonte [1 win]
  7. 8 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. [1 win]
  8. 2 – Rusty Wallace [1 win]
  9. 99 – Jeff Burton [1 win]
  10. 1 – Steve Park [1 win]
  11. 22 – Ward Burton [1 win]
  12. 21 – Elliott Sadler [1 win]
  13. 55 – Bobby Hamilton [1 win]
  14. 15 – Michael Waltrip [1 win]
  15. 10 – Johnny Benson [points]
  16. 6 – Mark Martin [points]
**Due to Kevin Harvick not starting the Daytona 500, he is excluded from the Chase.

Analysis: Chase Year One is off to an interesting start. With 14 different eligible winners, it was a tight race to make it in. Mark Martin makes it in by a mere 31 points over Bill Elliott. On the underdog front, The Wood Brothers make it into The Chase, Andy Petree's first Cup win came with a Chase berth and Johnny Benson pointed his way into The Chase.

Dale Earnhardt Inc. is the most successful team in the 2001 Chase with all three cars making it in.

I'll post 2002 tomorrow possibly, but I'll just leave this here for discussion and speculation about how THIS would've played out.
 
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So, wait if I want to know who ended up winning I got to look it up myself? Well dang, okay onward to that.

edit: or did that list of who would have won in each format that came out earlier this year go by what the top 16 was, or what it would have been?
 
So, wait if I want to know who ended up winning I got to look it up myself? Well dang, okay onward to that.

edit: or did that list of who would have won in each format that came out earlier this year go by what the top 16 was, or what it would have been?

I was thinking of going through each race and figuring out who won. But I would imagine that the racing style would be so dramatically different that it would be a moot point as I imagine the real life champion would almost never win because they would've been points racing towards the end. I'm working through the 2000s now and the trends of who makes it vs. who doesn't is more interesting than the eventual winner. I figured that it might be interesting to know who would have made The Chase each season.
 
I was thinking of going through each race and figuring out who won. But I would imagine that the racing style would be so dramatically different that it would be a moot point as I imagine the real life champion would almost never win because they would've been points racing towards the end. I'm working through the 2000s now and the trends of who makes it vs. who doesn't is more interesting than the eventual winner. I figured that it might be interesting to know who would have made The Chase each season.

Yeah, that's pretty true honestly, most of the racing would have been way different, people would take some risk to get a win to make sure they advance.
 
One of the good things about this Chase format though is that it would've given teams like the Wood Brothers and Andy Petree Racing some coverage at Dover. The format as a whole is wonky once you get into it but the qualifying process of it would've been fun.

One thing I struggled with was whether or not to include Harvick. I assume NASCAR honors the letter of the rule though and keeps him out. I also imagine it causes a mini-controversy around Richmond when fans cling to the hope that NASCAR will reverse course and put Harvick in.
 
2001 Chase would of ended at New Hampshire looking at the schedule.
 
  1. 24 – Jeff Gordon 2015 points
  2. 88 – Dale Jarrett 2012 points
  3. 20 – Tony Stewart 2009
  4. 28 – Ricky Rudd 2006
  5. 40 – Sterling Marlin 2003
  6. 18 – Bobby Labonte 2003
  7. 8 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2003
  8. 2 – Rusty Wallace 2003
  9. 99 – Jeff Burton 2003
  10. 1 – Steve Park 2003 (Looking at racing reference Park didn't run the whole year thus is removed from the Chase therefore I'm adding Bill Elliott as the last driver in.
  11. 22 – Ward Burton 2003
  12. 21 – Elliott Sadler 2003
  13. 55 – Bobby Hamilton 2003
  14. 15 – Michael Waltrip 2003
  15. 10 – Johnny Benson 2000
  16. 6 – Mark Martin 2000
  17. Bill Elliott 2000
points heading into first chase race at Dover

Gordon 2055
Jr 2051
Stewart 2049
Rudd 2048
Jarrett 2045
Marlin 2039
Hamilton 2037
Wallace 2036
Sadler 2033
Jeff Burton 2026
Elliott 2014
Benson 2013
Labonte 2012
Martin 2012
Ward Burton 2011
Waltrip 2008

Points after race 1

Like I said I replaced Park with Elliott since Park didn;t run the whole year. Lot of guys had rough days at Dover leaving the above standings. By the way, my bonus points may be off just a bit I forgot to check who lead all the laps.
 
Ah yeah, I forgot that Park's injury was at Darlington. If Harvick gets an exemption then he slides into The Chase, if not then Elliott obviously gets in. I do like that someone has already figured out how it plays out. I'm more interested in WHO makes The Chase so it's great that someone has already done the legwork of finding the eventual outcome.

The big question surrounding 2002 is what to do with Harvick being parked at Martinsville. I feel like NASCAR would let him in because he technically qualified for the race (and I think the rule only mentions QUALIFYING for the races, not racing in them). I put him in because of what the rule says.

2002
  1. 17 – Matt Kenseth [4 wins]
  2. 20 – Tony Stewart [3 wins]
  3. 40 – Sterling Marlin [2 wins]
  4. 48 – Jimmie Johnson [2 wins]
  5. 24 – Jeff Gordon [2 wins]
  6. 9 – Bill Elliott [2 wins]
  7. 88 – Dale Jarrett [2 wins]
  8. 22 – Ward Burton [2 wins]
  9. 6 – Mark Martin [1 win]
  10. 28 – Ricky Rudd [1 win]
  11. 97 – Kurt Busch [1 win]
  12. 8 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. [1 win]
  13. 18 – Bobby Labonte [1 win]
  14. 15 – Michael Waltrip [1 win]
  15. 29 – Kevin Harvick [1 win]
  16. 2 – Rusty Wallace [points]

2003
  1. 12 – Ryan Newman [6 wins]
  2. 97 – Kurt Busch [4 wins]
  3. 48 – Jimmie Johnson [2 wins]
  4. 31 – Robby Gordon [2 wins]
  5. 17 – Matt Kenseth [1 win]
  6. 8 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. [1 win]
  7. 29 – Kevin Harvick [1 win]
  8. 24 – Jeff Gordon [1 win]
  9. 18 – Bobby Labonte [1 win]
  10. 5 – Terry Labonte [1 win]
  11. 15 – Michael Waltrip [1 win]
  12. 20 – Tony Stewart [1 win]
  13. 16 – Greg Biffle [1 win]
  14. 88 – Dale Jarrett [1 win]
  15. 25 – Joe Nemechek [1 win]
  16. 32 – Ricky Craven [1 win]
In 2003, Joe Nemechek is an interesting case because in real life, Hendrick fired him before the end of the season. In an alternative reality where he makes The Chase, I see Hendrick keeping him on to finish the season (or at least until he gets eliminated). Craven is the only non-Chevy/Ford in the 2003 Chase and it's the first one made up entirely of winners. Michael Waltrip has also made all 3 Chases so far, all coming because of restrictor plate wins. Robby Gordon's sweeping of the road courses in 2003 also nets him an unusually high seeding.
 
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