The sensational seven!

97forever

97forever

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Looking for the winners of the most races per year and the next several NC titles? Tired of Jeff Gordon and his dominance? Sick of the old guard?

Man---have I got a post for you.

I dug up these stats between Daytona and the Rock and the last 3 races have just added validity to what I found.

Now granted, it's not brain surgery but some of these stats are still pretty shocking.

My contention is this, up front:

Seven drivers have entered the circuit in the last five years that will be the true power drivers for the next five years at least, maybe the next decade. These guys have came along and taken the circuit by storm in the last five seasons. All are young in their careers, all have won, all will win big again.

Please keep in mind, I am stunned by the quick pace these guys have established themselves both independently and collectively. I use comparisions to Jeff Gordon often when refering to these guys simply because no other driver in modern times can hold a candle to JG stat wise. HE is the measuring stick.

At least he used to be. As galling as it may sound: Petty, Pearson, Cale, Bobby Allison, DW, Earnhardt Sr. and Bill when he was awesome are back---at the same time!

Here are the drivers and their stats, keeping in mind this has all occurred in the last 5 seasons.

1999: Tony Stewart-- 17 wins
2000:Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr.-- 9 wins, 11 wins
2001:Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch-- 4 wins, 8 wins
2002:Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson-- 9 wins, 6 wins

Combined wins: 64
Combined poles:44
Combined titles:2

2003 wins combined:21---Title
2002 wins combined:19---Title

Previous best five year record for a group that I could find in the last thirty years was the group that preceeded these guys:

Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte
Jeff Burton, Ward Burton
Ricky Craven, Johnny Benson, R.Gordon

Combined wins:54
Combined poles:34
Combined titles: 3

Interesting in that CURRENT group is much more equally dispersed with wins than the previous group. In other words J.Gordon carried the prior group, in a class by himself....the current group however, are ALL 'Jeff Gordon' in a manner of speaking.

For Mr. Gordon....the competition has arrived in spades.

Also interesting is ----except for 2001 when J. Gordon won his last title----is the steady improvement these guys have shown.

Last year all execpt Busch were in the top ten in final standings...and Kurt was a close 11th.

These, simply put are the the group that is going to win 70% of the races per year, most of the poles and all of the titles for the near future. Other drivers will just have to settle for crumbs that fall from the plates of this group. No 'pre-7' driver will win another NC title in all liklihood, nor will any young gun come along that can dethrone these guys.

Other guys can run strong, can win every now and then---but at the end of every season this core group will have more wins and poles collectively than every other driver on the circuit combined.


The talk of '25-30 competitive teams each week' is largely a myth. Either you are in this group or you are out of luck, IMO>.

So what do you guys think? Is the future locked into these guys? The only driver even remotely who can challenge them is Jeff Gordon....and he has no chance of beating all of them at seasons end. One of them at least will beat Jeff or Rusty or Kasey or DJ every year in wins and for the Cup. Other than one of the sen-7---each driver on the circuit has as many titles as they will ever have is my opinion.

NASCAR's golden era might just be right now.
 
I think counting Jeff Gordon out is a big mistake. He may not win 3 or 4 more titles, although I would love to see it. But, I certainly don't think he has lifted his last Championship Cup. ;)
 
It's certainly possible, 4X. I tried to keep this post from sounding like a 'Gordon-bash' .It really wasn't, and I would never count Jeff out. But I have to honestly say he has seven very tough obstacles to overcome to gain #5.

:cheers:
 
No offence taken 97. It's all good. I'm just saying Mr Gordon is not exactly washed up in his early thirties. :cheers:
 
97,I liked how U remarked that Jeff Gordon is the measuring stick for other drivers,this does show respect,which some fans can't seem to show the 4 time Champ.I do agree with U about Jeff carrying the earlier group of drivers basically.
I also think that Jeff has more Titles in His future,don't forget that Jeff has more experience than any active driver on how to go about winning a Championship,I wouldn't be surprised to see Jeff hoist the 2004 Championship trophy really :eek: :D
I do see some really impressive rookies this year though that I'm sure will soon be rocking the "young guns" ,look at what Kasey Kahne and Scott Wimmer have already done at the Cup level in Their first few races,I'm sure They'll only improve and I do expect a lot more from Brian Vickers before season's end,although His qualifying package is already in fine shapeJMO ;)
 
Pretty interesting stats 97. It's fun to play around with numbers like that and try to predict a logical future........I do it a lot myself. But I doubt your predictions will be very acccurate...........I know mine seldom are!! :D There's a very simple reason that past stats fail to accurately foresee the future. Those drivers you chose as your base were chosen for their past performances...........but their performance is not a static thing. It changes each and every race (sometimes for the good, sometimes for the bad). It's like weather prediction. Weather predictions are projections using current conditions, recent past conditions, and a history of conditions from the past where similar conditions existed. But we all know any prediction is probably only accurate out to about 12 (or 24 at the most) hours.........and the accuracy diminishes rapidly beyond that. Weather's never static.......always changing. So a "snap shot" and using that with past "snap shots" fail you over time. It's dynamic........and so are the drivers in NASCAR. Had you done this two years ago you wouldn't have Jimmy Johnson or Ryan Newman in the mix at all........but they are in your base now!! :) Five years from now who knows who will be in the mix? And there's no guarantee any of your base drivers will stay in the sport.......What if Tony gets another title and decides he wants to be a team owner?

But it is fun to do.............and I'm copying it so I can print it out. We'll see what happens in four or five years!! :D :cheers:
 
But it is fun to do.............and I'm copying it so I can print it out. We'll see what happens in four or five years!!




I can't wait to see those results ;) :lol:
 
Originally posted by DE_Wrangler_2@Mar 16 2004, 01:58 AM
But it is fun to do.............and I'm copying it so I can print it out. We'll see what happens in four or five years!! :D :cheers:
Click to expand...
using a celeron processor huh? :huh:
 
Oh gee thanks, Wrangler...now I have performance anxiety. ( A first for me though---hehheh.)

Ahem---anyhow:
Like 24thunder pointed out : X-factors(newer drivers for instance) do exist and prediction is a risky thing.

I enjoy stats and numbers too and simply projected the past numbers(As you pointed out) into the future with a career base of 22 years as calculated by the mean length of other big-number drivers careers. I DID 'try', as fluid as that can be, to allow for 'off seasons' over that projected time period. I still come up with pretty impressive numbers for these seven guys though......after all, weather may change , but that very change is a constant of sorts. I allowed the same x-factor(or 'changing seasons') for any OTHER drivers that may come along. In that situation, it seems to almost equal out: These seven INDEPENDENT of each other may in fact have off seasons----but two or three(of the seven) are likely to be a force into the future, even if that two or three changes from year to year.

Just a little exercise in creative projection! :lol:
 
btw,even though Jeff Gordon has been winning less races recently,His stats from 1999 to present include 145 starts,the 2001 Championship,22 wins,23 poles,76 Top 5's,110 Top 10's and 6,777 laps led.In other words Jeff still has more wins than any driver on Ur list,including Tony Stewart. ;)
Just a thought ;)
 
About two years ago I did some numbers on Jeffy........compared him to every past Champion in NASCAR. I don't remember all the particulars but I do remember one where I took total starts and total wins and came up with a percentage.............Jeffy ate everyone's lunch including Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt!! I'm talking a huge difference......and he's still a few years shy of "prime"!! :) Never count Jeffy out of any equation! :D
 
Actually, I used Jeff as the benchmark and that was the first thing I did,24Thunder---check to see how Jeff fared since '99, when the sen-7 first came along.

He has prevailed stat wise but I reasoned only because it has been a gradual curve that the seven has arrived on the scene. In other words, hypotheticaly, he very likely won't match that record again simpy because all of the players are now on the field.

1999...the year Tony arrived, was the most wins Jeff has had since that year. (7)

2000:3
2001:6---title
2002:3
2003:3

While it's true JG has the most wins in that time period,, it also indicated a marked downturn for Jeff for a variety of reasons. That five year period held less wins for Jeff than did the TWO seasons before 1999.

I would say it's safe to say the Gordon from 94-98 would have had a fighting chance....but from 99 forward it's been an uphill fight, compared to his previous seasons.. The exception being '01.

More fun with numbers! :cheers:
 
ok,97,I agree about Jeff's numbers declining,no argument there.U were mainly pointing out the groups numbers,not individual drivers,per se,got ya now,no prob.
btw,thanks for taking the time to post those stats and etc. here,it's interesting ;) :D
I did make a mistake earlier,I meant to say Jeff had 180 starts since 1999,as follows:

2004-4 starts
2003-36
2002-36
2001-36
2000-34
1999-34
___
180 starts. :eek:
 
A fascinating hypothesis. I see only the one flaw in it.

You failed to credit the emergence of even newer faces. If I were to try and name the next big name, I'd probably go with Kahne. Your theory holds water until the start of the 2005 season. Then it's toast.

As impressive as Kahne, Vickers, Riggs et al have been, there are dozens of guys waiting in the wings. They're just as talented, just as hungry, and just as capable.

Here's the reason I think we are seeing this phenomenon of young guns today being such a force in the sport. Go back 15 or 20 years. A Ron Bouchard had to race years to get the calibur of race equipment that Scott Riggs sits in right now. And I think most of us would agree that the Valvoline ride ain't what it used to be. Point being, if you break the field down to three batches those being the top dogs, the capable of winning if everything goes rights, and the Jesus Christ I'm just glad to be heres there is a shift in place now that I don't recall ever seeing before.

Once upon a time, you could count on one hand the cars you had to give serious consideration to winnning a race. Petty, Pearson, Cale, Bobby Allison, maybe Benny Parsons. In the early 80s, maybe there were 8 to 10. Late 80s, maybe a dozen. Throughout the 90s it continued to increase until now there are easily 25 cars each race who deserve serious consideration for a win. That's a good thing. But that second tier of race teams (Ricky Craven, Ward Burton, Joe Nemechek, Terry Labonte) for the most part is made up of guys whose glory days are probably behind them, where it used to be the guys who were proving themselves (Newman, Busch, Johnson, Harvick) for the most part. That is not a knock on any of those drivers at all,and there are still some young guys in that group like Casey Mears. Then you have the guys fighting for table scraps. Used to be that was for the Dave Marcises (yes, I know all about his wins) the Buddy Arringtons, the H.B. Baileys. Well, now we have Kyle Petty and Ken Schrader and a bunch of never were's there.

Point being, does anyone think that Ryan Newman would be in a Penske quality ride in 1982? Hell no. Junior would have waltzed in just as Davey did, but they are the exceptions. Once upon a time the 12 would be driven by a Ward Burton, the 17 by a Terry Labonte. Experience used to be the primary thing a race team looked for. Not anymore.

Then you have the guys like Alan Kulwicki who turned his pumpkin into a carriage, but that's a whole other kettle of fish. Never be anyone else like him in the sport.

I guess what I'm trying to get at is while this generation of drivers certainly is impressive, the reason behind it is not talent alone. There have been drivers many of the folks on here have never heard of that were capable of driving circles around Jimmie Johnson or Greg Biffle. They didn't have the backing these guys have. The best driver in the world can't make a lemon smell like a rose.
 
I think another reason Jeff Gordon appears mortal post 1999 is because the loss of his mentor and crew cheif Ray Evernham in late 1999. Since the loss of Evernham the Rainbow Warriors have lost that swagger that the Dupont teams of the past have had.
 
And like the hands on a clock, the hours, days, weeks, months and years just keep on ticking by! :D It's an evolution of the sport.......not all good, but certainly not all bad either!!

One day in the not too distant future we all we be saying much the same we are saying now..........."those 'young guns' sure have easy compared to when Kasey came in the series!! These guys just don't know how lucky they are!"

:cheers: :cheers: :cheers:
 
The big reason for jeffs decline isnt because he all of suden started driving worse, or because of these new guys showing up. Its becuase of robby loomis, look at last years stats didnt jeff lead the most laps?? He just couldn't pull out the win. Im telling you watch the races, and pay atention you will see. 60% of the time when jeff goes in to get some lil problem fixed it becomes a big problem. Jeff get rid of old robby!
 
as for this group of 7, I think its hard to say that with all the names that should be entering the sport soon. Ex. Carl edwards, or kyle busch.

Of course it has alot to do with how good there rides will be.

If you dont have one of the fastest cars (most of the time the fastest) you cant be competitive, notice who won the cup last year. The guy most people said had the best pit crew.

Did anyone watch wind tunnel after the daytona 500 when dave interviewed dale jr, even jr said if he was in the 20 and tony was in the 8. Most likely the 8 still would have won.

Even though all of these guys are pros and deserve credit for being so, its hard to tell whos the best of the best. With races depending so much on how good your equipment is, or how fast your pit crew can get you out on your last stop.
 
Hey, 97...where in heck were you a couple of weeks ago? We could've cleaned up in Vegas!!

All jokes aside, very interesting stuff. Thanks.
 
Excellent post 97Forever. Interesting how stats can make or break an idea.
There are many good explanations for why one team may fare well while another picks at horse turds with the birds.
Gordon could very well be getting a touch burned out. The pressures that accompany four championship runs close together are mentally wearing.

I think the thing that is surprising is the way the new drivers come to the scene and perform as well as they do.
Jamie McMuray and Harvick winning in thier second and third starts is nearly unheard of. The ability to focus and concentrate while driving for the win with so little experience in the series is amazing.

The wins come to the drivers, but the way cars are set up today, even commentators with experience say a monkey could drive them. A unlikely scenario.

The question of who is the better driver might become moot as the of greater intertest should be which team consistently hits the best setup. Even great drivers suck if the setup isn't right and the days of manhandling a car to win, are, for the most part, gone.

The chant from fans should be "save the short tracks" since this is the only arena left to display driving ability and manhandling for the win.
This is the one time setup might not always be the predominant factor.

In the final analysis, stats are only as good as the rest of the team.
 
Short tracks showing the ability to win? Oh please, brake, stop, go, gas, gas, gas, gas, brake, gas. Theyre more like demolition derby than real racing at all.

We need more road courses, restrictor plates and the whole package and soon!
 
Hey, this is a VERY interesting thread, I truly enjoyed reading everyones comments and the fact no slamming and bashing went on makes it even more enjoyable. :D Congrats to all that participated.
97, thanks for starting a thread that produced so much thought. :rolleyes:
 
Great responses from all of you guys. Occasionally I will try to post a thought provoking thread rather than my 90% of silly or comical ones. :p

Pretty good collection of brain power here and some interesting thoughts raised.

Foremost among those is the ' accelerated rookie syndrome' mentioned by EMP very logically and Whizzer in his typical well thought out manner.

I bounced this little theory of the seven off of my Dad before I ever posted it. A cranky and colorful character if ever there was one, but pretty good at shooting most of my arguements full of holes.

Like EMP and Whiz---he went the 'accelerated rookie' route. I had to think this through, certainly today's rookies are a much improved breed over previous rookies,in ride-quality if not actual skill.(As EMP pointed out.)

I think I can bypass that logical arguement by coming up with my own counterpoint: The increased competition factor. In other words, even as the quality of the rookies and the early ability to make an impact by them increases, the competition is ALSO increasing.

Now to be frank, a lot of stuff has to fall exactly right for a KK to emerge. EMP made some fascinating points and is exactly on the mark.
But the shift is about to reverse itself, is my opinion. In fact, I think this years rookie group will be the last of the super-rookies that started with J.Gordon, paused a few years and started again with a vengeance in '99 with Stewart. I think only so many top quality cars with top notch teams with super talented drivers with mega- buck sponsors exist. I think this year filled the cup to overflowing and look for a lull in the action until K. Busch and C. Edwards come along in a few years----and even then I expect those guys to pale before the rookie years of Stewart, Johnson or Newman. Think of Biffle and Jamie last year....GOOD rookie years by the standards of 12 years ago, just not up to the standards set by Tony in '99.

And what happens IF this proposed 'rookie-lull' happens? The guys entering their third, fourth and fifth seasons get stronger, they improve, the competition increases. It's very important to note I don't think ANY of the sen-7 have peaked yet. Based on what I could determine most big-number drivers hit their stride in 8-10 years.Of course exeptions exist.(J.Gordon yet again!) But thats the exeption rather than the rule. Give the seven drivers three-five more years to peak gradually, led by Stewart, and you see why I doubt if they can be beaten anytime soon.

Based on a projected continually improving rookie crop this whole seven driver-notion might well fall flat. But I think the best rookie years for the next decade or longer occured between '99 and '02. I don't see any guys coming down the pike that are likely to dethrone those guys.I look for the rookie crop to flatten out after this season.

Again this is all just speculation I hope most of us find interesting. EMP and Whiz make excellent points as do all you guys!


:cheers: :cheers:
 
I agree that the rookie classes from '99-'02 have raised the bar for all rookies, and that these guys are only going to continue to improve. When you look at the "kind-of-young" drivers such as Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte, etc., this could be a golden age of NASCAR. Definitely, the quality of rides the young drivers are in is higher than in the past, but I think there's definitely talent there as well. The only caution I have in trying to predict their lifetime totals is the fact that several of the younger drivers have flat-out said they don't intend to drive past 40. So, although they will have good statistics for their careers, their careers are likely to be shorter than the Terry Labonte, Ricky Rudd, Rusty Wallace crowd. Now, I can see some of them driving as long as they can get a ride, and of course, you can change your mind a lot in 15 years, but still, we have to bear in mind that they may not have 22-year careers, it may be more like 15 years at the most.

It will be interesting to see how their stats compare with the greats of the past, and how the really young kids coming up compare. I would say that in the next three years should continue the trend, and the best of the drivers moving up at that time may make the group of seven a group of ten. Then for a few years after that, things will "settle down" somewhat...today's veterans will have retired, today's young guns will be hitting their mid-career stride, and there won't be enough good rides open for rookies at that time to step right in. There will a bump in about five-seven years when today's mid-career drivers retire (assuming they don't retire earlier than that, but I think most of the drivers in their early/mid 30's will go till their early 40's), and then a large and dramatic bump in 15 years, assuming that most of the magnificent seven retire as planned at that time.

Interesting thoughts...thanks!
 
Not to bump up my own thread for the wrong reason, but a few of us were going to keep an eye on the seven guys in question.

5 races in, we have 100% 'seven-domination'. I don't see this trend being broken anytime soon---and when it is , I suspect J. Gordon will be the first non-7 driver to win. 36 vs. 7....My money is still on these guys.I say they will win 25 races between them this season.

Kasey is about to hit a learning curve and although Jamie and Greg are improved, still don't seem quite up to real top-notch.

Interestingly I did noticed that all six of the 'Gillette young guns' are these guys! Only Tony is missing! :lol:
 
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