Hamlin - The Chase Scenario

dpkimmel2001

dpkimmel2001

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Is it possible to sit out the next 6 weeks and still make the Chase? All he has to do is make the top 20 and rack up a few wins. ALL, that's a big word. He'd have to climb back into the top 20 and win some races. I think it could be done under the current rules. 20th position has averaged 22 points per race. Hamlin before his accident averaged 31 points per race. Best case scenario leaves him with 16 races to erase the deficit after missing 5 points paying races. He'd have to reach the top 20 and win 2 or 3 races. While I'm not a fan, I'd love to see him do it. For me personally, it would further validate what a farce the Chase is to begin with. Yeah, I went there.
 
I think it would be cool if he did that. Don't know how likely it is though. I think this injury could plague him awhile.
 
I think he gets cleared to roll around from the rear for 1 lap and then jump out of the car at Texas.

Perhaps Hamlin will finally learn a lesson from this. Hamlin intentionally turned Logano at Bristol, then said it was over because Joey never called HIM. o_O Logano said it isn't over until Hamlin does the right thing and calls him.

Denny, next time just make the call and save yourself problems. He's spent most of his time this year taking on nascar about Danica's pole at Daytona, the new car, or talking about drivers not speaking their mind just to stay on nascar's good side. Then came Bristol. Makes me wonder if he even came to race this year.
 
As FB pointed out --- if Denny can start the car and turn it over to a relief driver, he gets points. So there is the possibility he won't miss all the races.

But, I think he pointed out in his interview, he'd have to figure out how to get in the car without twisting his body and wearing the body brace. That's the problem.
 
TexasRaceLady said:
As FB pointed out --- if Denny can start the car and turn it over to a relief driver, he gets points. So there is the possibility he won't miss all the races.

But, I think he pointed out in his interview, he'd have to figure out how to get in the car without twisting his body and wearing the body brace. That's the problem.
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He needs the 'Mikey Escape Hatch'.

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TexasRaceLady said:
As FB pointed out --- if Denny can start the car and turn it over to a relief driver, he gets points. So there is the possibility he won't miss all the races.

But, I think he pointed out in his interview, he'd have to figure out how to get in the car without twisting his body and wearing the body brace. That's the problem.
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Denny tweeted that if it were just a case of him dealing with the pain, he would get in the car next week (Martinsville). I don't see that happening, but he just might get permission to run 1 lap at Texas. 1 lap down and the lucky dog for a long time could get him some serious points. I guess it depend on how bad it is. I'm guessing since surgery isn't required to put things back in place, it's not the bottom picture.

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Will be tough and not just for missed points for missed races.
Racing involves an acquired rhythm for the personal of the team to sync,
Plus getting the car mechanically tuned back to match and deliver the best performance, which also cannot be subjective to the personal. There will be a loss or rust, because racing ovulates . (Should have said evolution, but ovualate is just a cooler word and we are discussing "ovals").

Note: If Denny does a Tim Richmond and wins out of the box like Tim did at Pocono after missing the first half of 1987, disregard this post. Otherwise this is the word and in either case you can bet on it happening
 
FenderBumper said:
I think he gets cleared to roll around from the rear for 1 lap and then jump out of the car at Texas.

Perhaps Hamlin will finally learn a lesson from this. Hamlin intentionally turned Logano at Bristol, then said it was over because Joey never called HIM. o_O Logano said it isn't over until Hamlin does the right thing and calls him.

Denny, next time just make the call and save yourself problems. He's spent most of his time this year taking on nascar about Danica's pole at Daytona, the new car, or talking about drivers not speaking their mind just to stay on nascar's good side. Then came Bristol. Makes me wonder if he even came to race this year.
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I am no Hamlin fan son I don't want to sound like I am defending him. I will just say this, I think by the way he was running before the accident proves he came to race. Also, haven't most of the fans been asking for that vocal driver? Someone to take on NASCAR? Hamlin does it and now we crucify him for it?
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
Is it possible to sit out the next 6 weeks and still make the Chase? All he has to do is make the top 20 and rack up a few wins. ALL, that's a big word. He'd have to climb back into the top 20 and win some races. I think it could be done under the current rules. 20th position has averaged 22 points per race. Hamlin before his accident averaged 31 points per race. Best case scenario leaves him with 16 races to erase the deficit after missing 5 points paying races. He'd have to reach the top 20 and win 2 or 3 races. While I'm not a fan, I'd love to see him do it. For me personally, it would further validate what a farce the Chase is to begin with. Yeah, I went there.
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I don't think it will prove the chase to be a farce. I think it would be more of a farce to say a driver like Ambrose to knock out a couple road course wins ride around at the other races and finish 17-18 in points and make the chase. If Hamlin did it with strong finishes and a handful of wins then I think he would be a true wildcard and deserves 11th or 12th. If an NFL team can make the playoffs with a 7-9 or 8-8 record then I wouldn't hold it against Hamlin.
 
It's definitely possible but not very likely.
FenderBumper said:
Perhaps Hamlin will finally learn a lesson from this. Hamlin intentionally turned Logano at Bristol, then said it was over because Joey never called HIM. o_O Logano said it isn't over until Hamlin does the right thing and calls him.
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Agreed, I still say Joey has done nothing wrong. This may be in bad taste but I recall saying "someone is going to have to miss the chase for Joey to get in".. didn't think it'd be like that though. Hope Denny is back soon.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
The Hamlin Recovery Thread is two doors down on the left. ;)

I was specifically asking about the Chase.
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dude, you need to check yourself. Nobody used the word 'recovery'. ;)

Can he make the chase??? Well, I know you don't like talking about these kinds of things, but that depends on him getting in the car for a lap or 2 while he....errr....gets better. :p
 
Fender, we have a high standard to uphold here, so make sure it's battery powered and not hand cranked.:D
 
Its definitely possible. But the question I will he drive the same now that he has to worry about this. I hope he does but this could work him over mentally. Like Ricky Bobby lol
 
A problem with your run one lap at Texas plan fender, unless their is a caution on lap one your going to lose more then 1 lap changing a driver.
 
kkfan91 said:
A problem with your run one lap at Texas plan fender, unless their is a caution on lap one your going to lose more then 1 lap changing a driver.
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They'd be lucky to complete that under a green flag lap at either of the road courses without losing far more than a lap.
 
I wouldn't say it's impossible cause Denny runs really well at all racetracks, but he's gonna miss 2 of his best tracks Martinsville and Richmond while he's out but he'll still have about 10 or 11 chances when he gets back. I don't see it happening but as long as 2 or 3 drivers outside the top 10 do 't have multiple victories I think he has a shot.
 
First things first. He's got to be able to get in the car, run some laps and then get out. I'm not sure if Nascar mandates getting out unassisted or not.
Then will his back allow him to run 4 or 500 laps/miles?
All our talk of him getting into the chase right now is just pissin'in the wind. Regardless of our concerns and well wishes only time will tell.
 
If he scores ZERO points in 5 races (assuming a six-week absence) he will have a really hard time making the chase.
It wouldn't be impossible, but he would need to win - with max points - multiple times.
But it would be quite an achievement if he did qualify for the playoffs!
(a stick-and-ball reference for your dining and dancing pleasure)
 
Some numbers to chew on from David Newton.....

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Can Denny Hamlin still make the Chase?

Yes.

And it might not be as difficult as it appears.

Hamlin is expected to miss the next five races recovering from a compression fracture in his lower back suffered on a last-lap wreck with former Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Joey Logano on Sunday at Auto Club Speedway.

He had 180 points during that span a year ago, which is a ton for one of only two drivers -- Jimmie Johnson is the other -- who never has missed NASCAR's 10-race playoff. It basically ends any chance he has of automatically qualifying in the top 10.

But earning one of the two wild-card berths, given to the drivers with the most wins inside the top 20, isn't a reach at all.

A year ago, Jamie McMurray was 20th in the standings with 640 points when the Chase was set after 26 races. Hamlin, 10th in the standings, has 145 points.

Hamlin would need approximately 495 points -- and one or two wins -- over the 16 races before the September Richmond race to be in position for the top 20 under 2012 standards. To do that he would need an average of 30.9 points per race, or an average finish of around 13th.

Throw in bonus points for a few wins in which he leads the most laps for a maximum 48 points and his average finish could be slightly higher.

It's possible. A year ago, Hamlin's average finish was only 14.1 from race 11 to 26. But he won at Bristol and Atlanta and accumulated 499 points, three more than he would have needed to get into the Chase.

If he did the exact same thing a year ago after missing five races he would have knocked Jeff Gordon out of the final wild-card spot.

Based on what 20th place has done so far this year Hamlin may have even more leeway. Ryan Newman is in the bubble slot with 121 points, an average finish of 24.2. Average that out over 26 races and the total is only 629.

If you need more proof this is possible, 13 of Hamlin's 22 career wins have come at the tracks he'll compete between his likely return at Darlington and Richmond. Four have come at Pocono, where he'll have two opportunities to win.

As wild as it sounds, the Chase remains a realistic goal.
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from here
 
The only thing that I can see giving any credibility to saying he would make the chase is when he had knee surgery and came back to win 8 races that year and finish 2nd in points. But he never missed any races and this isn't knee surgery. I highly doubt he will be a factor when it comes to Richmond.
 
nobody knows for sure when he can get back to racing. The Doc said approx 6 weeks is what I read. He is an athlete in good shape, and he has run a car before when he had injury, so he might get back to it sooner than six weeks.
 
Guys, this thread has nothing to do with his back discussion. It's simply whether or not he would be able to come back from this assuming he gets back into the car after the expected time off.
 
StandOnIt said:
nobody knows for sure when he can get back to racing. The Doc said approx 6 weeks is what I read. He is an athlete in good shape, and he has run a car before when he had injury, so he might get back to it sooner than six weeks.
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He has to be cleared by Dr. Petty. And I think it's a safe bet that Dr. Petty and NASCAR are going to play it safe after the Junyer fiasco.

Five races, he could make the Chase. The wild card system makes all the difference. In 2007, Mark Martin was 159 points (under the old system) out of 20th place after missing EIGHT races at that point in the season (he was racing part time).
 
Martin came in 26th, 148 points back of 20th, while running only 17 of the 26 regular season races last year. And he had only seven Top 10s pre-Chase. If Denny comes back in good form it's possible.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
He has to be cleared by Dr. Petty. And I think it's a safe bet that Dr. Petty and NASCAR are going to play it safe after the Junyer fiasco.

Five races, he could make the Chase. The wild card system makes all the difference. In 2007, Mark Martin was 159 points (under the old system) out of 20th place after missing EIGHT races at that point in the season (he was racing part time).
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yeah he almost two weeks to heal where he isn't loosing any points, and if he missed the first race or two, that would be a four or 5 week period to heal, so if he could get back that fast, he could have a shot easy at the chase if he had all good runs.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
Guys, this thread has nothing to do with his back discussion. It's simply whether or not he would be able to come back from this assuming he gets back into the car after the expected time off.
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But he's going to be taking the time off because of his back injury.
His back injury has to be part of the discussion, no?
 
It's possible, but not probable for him to get into the top 20 by the time the Chase starts.

I don't think he should rush back either. Sitting in a racecar will only aggravate a back injury even more. It's worth it to sit out a few races to get healed than to deal with a lifetime of back problems. I've never had the type of injury he has. But I hurt mine when I was 19 attempting to lift weights and hurt mine. It doesn't take a whole lot for mine to bother me or have some bad pain. He needs to take care of his while he's still young.
 
I don't think its all that out of the question. Hamlin is a great driver he can rack up wins and I think if there was a time to get hurt it might actually be now. I know he is good at Martinsville so that isn't going to be good but we do have an off week this week. Texas and Kansas he will likely miss will drop him out of the top 20 and missing Richmond will be tough because he has won there alot but missing Talladega I don't think is that big of a deal because well it's Talladega. Darlington would be interesting if he showed up there but he could also skip that race, knowing that the following week would be a non points event (All Star Race). He would still have 15 points races to go to get back into the top 20 and realisticly would need to win 2 of them.
 
robbybee said:
But he's going to be taking the time off because of his back injury.
His back injury has to be part of the discussion, no?
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I think my point with this thread has been lost. It was simply whether or not someone could come back from this sort of deficit. It could have been a hangnail for all I care. There are plenty of threads on his back injury and discussion about that.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
I think my point with this thread has been lost. It was simply whether or not someone could come back from this sort of deficit. It could have been a hangnail for all I care. There are plenty of threads on his back injury and discussion about that.
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True. There are other threads for that.

Can Denny make the Chase? Possible - but not likely.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
I think my point with this thread has been lost. It was simply whether or not someone could come back from this sort of deficit. It could have been a hangnail for all I care. There are plenty of threads on his back injury and discussion about that.
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Geez, you are as pissy as a cowboy with hemorrhoids.

If he sits out a full 6 weeks, no. It's totally hypothetical. Even the 6 week healing time is a rough 'probably no longer than' estimate. He could heal up in 3......oh crap, sorry! :oops:
 
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