Just in case anybody follows the ponies...here is my early ameteur analysis of the upcoming race (man, I miss my old O.T.B. place!).
Weather is predicted to be dry and a little warm through the weekend...track should be firm and fast at Churchill Downs.
20 horses in the field with a backup at the ready in case of a scratch so it will be a crowded track.
Early betting favorite is the Arkansas Derby winner - Bodemeister - a Baffert horse - out of the 6th post position. Interestingly, two other highly respected horses, Union Rags and Dullahan are coming out of the 4th and 5th post position, so this will be a group to watch.
Personally, I like Gemologist (undefeated) and Hansen (top 2-year old last year). Gemologist is coming from the 14th position and Hansen the 15th. There is a space between the 14th and 15th position due to the gate setup - so this should give them both room to run without getting squeazed. Both horses are experienced on dirt.
Long shots:
DaddyLongLegs would have been a good long shot except he is coming out of the #1 post position and will likely get shuffled back/pinched early.
I'll have Another is a good horse coming from way out at the 19th position - not the best spot but he should have room to run without getting bumped. The 20th post position (furthest wide) is a 50-1 shot so it will likely not get in his way.
Creative Cause isn't really that much of a longshot, but has never faced this quality of a field, post position 8.
Alpha is a speed horse coming out of the 11th position and if he can sprint to the first turn he may be the early leader. Whether he can hold up to the finish is the question.
My pick: toss-up between Gemologist and Hansen - I guess I'd bet on Hansen because he has been there before and been highly successful as a two year old.
Should be a great race - hope no horses get hurt. In my personal opinion the Derby should be capped at the 12 best horses - but everybody wants to get in on it and have a chance at the Triple Crown.
Weather is predicted to be dry and a little warm through the weekend...track should be firm and fast at Churchill Downs.
20 horses in the field with a backup at the ready in case of a scratch so it will be a crowded track.
Early betting favorite is the Arkansas Derby winner - Bodemeister - a Baffert horse - out of the 6th post position. Interestingly, two other highly respected horses, Union Rags and Dullahan are coming out of the 4th and 5th post position, so this will be a group to watch.
Personally, I like Gemologist (undefeated) and Hansen (top 2-year old last year). Gemologist is coming from the 14th position and Hansen the 15th. There is a space between the 14th and 15th position due to the gate setup - so this should give them both room to run without getting squeazed. Both horses are experienced on dirt.
Long shots:
DaddyLongLegs would have been a good long shot except he is coming out of the #1 post position and will likely get shuffled back/pinched early.
I'll have Another is a good horse coming from way out at the 19th position - not the best spot but he should have room to run without getting bumped. The 20th post position (furthest wide) is a 50-1 shot so it will likely not get in his way.
Creative Cause isn't really that much of a longshot, but has never faced this quality of a field, post position 8.
Alpha is a speed horse coming out of the 11th position and if he can sprint to the first turn he may be the early leader. Whether he can hold up to the finish is the question.
My pick: toss-up between Gemologist and Hansen - I guess I'd bet on Hansen because he has been there before and been highly successful as a two year old.
Should be a great race - hope no horses get hurt. In my personal opinion the Derby should be capped at the 12 best horses - but everybody wants to get in on it and have a chance at the Triple Crown.
