1st Half Driver Grades - top 40 in points

S

stridsberry

Guest
Time to analyze and critique the drivers for the first half of the 2002 season. Please note that there will be no regular ratings this week, because this stuff takes just as much (if not more) time to do. Grades are based on a formula that takes into account total points, top runs, and expectations, as based on last year's final point standings. Grades are for the top 40 in points on ly (since everyone below that is guarunteed to fail), and are arranged in alphabetical order. You might want to print this out, so it is easier to read. Feedback is welcomed.

JOHN ANDRETTI - #43
Points Wins Top 5 Top 10 Top 20
1506 0 0 1 4
Point Standing: 30th
Comments: The “Petty Turnaround” has really only been one car this season, and it sure isn’t John’s. A 10th at Infineon is his high-water mark so far, and he ended the 1st half a lowly 30th in points. Kyle has expressed interest in John returning next year, but the way Silly Season works, you never know.
Grade: 59.4% (F)
Silly Season Status: Questionable

CASEY ATWOOD - #7
1464 0 0 0 4
Standing: 31st
Comments: Despite an impressive 2nd half of 2001, Casey got demoted to the #7 car in the off-season. His performances have picked up after a dreadful start, but he has yet to post a top-10 finish.
Grade: 54.8% (F)
Status: Shaky

JOHNNY BENSON - #10
1283 0 0 2 7
Standing: 35th
Comments: The year started out horribly for Johnny, and just when his performances were improving, he has been hit twice by rib injuries. With all the races he’s missed (and more to come), even a top-25 in the final driver points would appear unlikely.
Grade: 44.8% (F)
Status: Somewhat safe, due to past performance, but the rib injuries have undoubtedly lowered his stock.

DAVE BLANEY - #77
1863 0 0 2 10
Standing: 19th
Comments: So far, this has been the best season ever, for both Dave and the team. While he has just two top-10s, his consistency has him in the top-20 in points, and 2nd among single-car teams. Barring a 2nd-half collapse, he should be back in the 77 next year.
Grade: 74.5% ©
Status: Probably safe.

BRETT BODINE - #11
1375 0 0 0 3
Standing: 34th
Comments: One would think that Brett’s performance would pick up after the sponsorship deal with Hooter’s, but that hasn’t been the case. He is the lowest in points among drivers who have competed in every race, but so long as Brett can pay the bills, he’ll be out there every week.
Grade: 51.7% (F)
Status: As safe as funding allows.

TODD BODINE - #66, #26
757 0 0 1 3
Standing: 40th
Comments: After falling victim to the K-Mart fiasco, Todd was able to come back to Travis Carter, thanks to a sponsorship deal with Discover card. The deal has since been extended for the full season, but considering all the races missed, it will be a chore to move up in the points.
Grade: 41% (F)
Status: Currently safe, pending sponsorship for 2003.

JEFF BURTON - #99
2000 0 2 7 11
Standing: 16th
Comments: While this year started out better than 2001, Jeff closed out the half 16th in points – one spot lower than the same time last year. Still, a top-10 points finish is entirely possible, given the 2nd half he had last year.
Grade: 75.6% ©
Status: Probably safe.

WARD BURTON - #22
1609 1 1 3 8
Standing: 26th
Comments: Ward started the year with a bang winning the Daytona 500. Since then, he has just two top-10 finishes, and even when he runs well, some sort of problem takes him out. His luck may actually be worse than Schrader’s.
Grade: 57.2% (F)
Status: Questionable.

KURT BUSCH - #97
2223 1 5 8 12
Standing: 9th
Comments: Kurt started this year off with a bang, winning at Bristol and ranking as high as 2nd in points (after California). Some crashes and pit-road issues have brought his down some, but his 9th-place standing is still light-years ahead of last year.
Grade: 96.5% (A)
Status: Safe.

STACEY COMPTON - #14
1242 0 0 0 3
Standing: 36th
Comments: I think Stacey is the best example yet of how bad A.J.’s cars are. He’s contending for a top-10 in BGN points, but hasn’t finished higher than 18th in WC. I don’t see Stacey lasting any longer than Hornaday did – or the team lasting, for that matter.
Grade: 48.3% (F)
Status: Shaky, both driver and team.

RICKY CRAVEN - #32
2032 0 3 5 13
Standing: 13th
Comments: In their 2nd year together, Ricky and the PPI team have found the needed chemistry and consistency. Their 1st half top-20 total matches that from all of last year, and they are by far the best single-car team. With a little better luck, they would already be in the top-10 in points.
Grade: 83.8% (B)
Status: Safe.

DALE EARNHARDT JR. - #8
2020 1 5 7 9
Standing: T14th
Comments: Dale Jr. had been earmarked as a title contender for this year, but so far he has not lived up to the calling. A major slump following the Talladega win dropped him way down in points, and may be too big a hole to fully climb back out of.
Grade: 76.4% ©
Status: His family owns the team. Need I say more?

BILL ELLIOTT - #9
2230 0 2 8 14
Standing: 8th
Comments: The last time Bill came close to sniffing the top-10 in points was 1997, when he finished 8th. That is where he stands right now, and with a strong 2nd half, a top-5 points finish – or maybe even a championship – could be realized.
Grade: 91.2% (A-)
Status: He’ll likely be with this team until he retires.

JEFF GORDON - #24
2388 0 6 11 14
Standing: 4th
Comments: In past years, Jeff has tended to win championships by winning more races than anybody else. He has yet to win a race, but has managed to stay in the point’s race by virtue of consistency. If he gets on a roll like at this time last year, he will become the man to beat.
Grade: 92.5% (A-)
Status: The safest man in NASCAR – bar none.

ROBBY GORDON - #31
1659 0 0 2 9
Standing: 24th
Comments: Few people expected Robby to do much in this car, despite some impressive runs in 2001. While he started out the year slow, he has made a recent surge, with six top-20 finishes (and two 8th-places) in nine races lifting him into the top-25 in points. A stronger 2nd half would bring the possibility of a top-20 in the final standings.
Grade: 75% ©
Status: Probably safe, considering all of RCR has struggled this year.

JEFF GREEN - #30
1792 0 1 1 10
Standing: 22nd
Comments: Jeff should have at least four top-5 finishes by now, but due to extenuating circumstances, he has just one – which can at Infineon, of all places. Still, his consistency has him ranked highest among the RCR cars, and if he can start finishing the deal more often, he’ll probably stay that way.
Grade: 73.2% ©
Status: Probably safe.

BOBBY HAMILTON - #55
1631 0 0 2 6
Standing: 25th
Comments: Bobby has very quietly been having a dismal season, continuing a slump which began after his win at Talladega last year – in 45 races since, he has just one top-5 finish (at Talladega, of course). A recent upswing has moved him into the top-25 in points, but he’s already decided not to return to the 55 next season.
Grade: 60.4% (D-)
Status: Gone at the end year, possibly to PE.

KEVIN HARVICK - #29
1576 1 2 3 6
Standing: 28th
Comments: The sophomore slump hit Kevin hard to start the year, with a series of crashes and run-ins with NASCAR officials, the latter leading to a one-race suspension. There have been signs of hope, though – he ended the half with his 1st career pole, and then a win at Chicago. If he can back up to the top-20 in points, I’ll consider the 2nd half to be a success.
Grade: 54% (F)
Status: Safe, due to past performance and the win.

DALE JARRETT - #88
2109 1 4 7 12
Standing: 11th
Comments: D.J.’s year started with a power struggle at the crew chief position between Elledge and Parrott, which undoubtedly affected his performance. With Parrott restored in the position, his season took a sharp upswing, peaking with a win at Pocono. He’s now back contending for his usual top-10 points position.
Grade: 80% (B-)
Status: Safe, thanks to the $16-18 million that UPS is paying.

JIMMIE JOHNSON - #48
2394 2 5 12 14
Standing: 4th
Comments: Jimmie has been having an amazing rookie year, even better than – dare I say? – that of Tony Stewart, already posting two wins. He hasn’t shown any signs of letting up soon, but I think that 25 point penalty will come back to bite him at season’s end.
Grade: 98.4% (A+)
Status: Is this a trick question?

MATT KENSETH - #17
2219 3 6 9 12
Standing: 10th
Comments: It’s been a great year, and yet a disappointing year. Matt leads the tour in wins, but has taking a freefall of late. In the last 6 races of the half, he fell from 2nd to 10th in the points, with the Michigan win his only top-10 finish in that time. He needs to pull out of the nosedive soon in order to get back in championship contention.
Grade: 88.9% (B+)
Status: Likely safe.

BOBBY LABONTE - #18
1806 1 3 3 8
Standing: 21st
Comments: After a strong 2nd half of 2001, Bobby looked to be a championship challenger once again. Instead, he has been anything but. While he did score a win at Martinsville, he has just two other top-10 finishes, and faces an even steeper uphill struggle than he did last year.
Grade: 63.4% (D)
Status: Safe due to past performance.

TERRY LABONTE - #5
1927 0 1 3 12
Standing: 17th
Comments: It appears Terry has finally pulled out of the downhill slide he was mired in for the past 5 seasons. The consistency he’d been missing for so long has returned, and his 3rd-place run at Infineon was his best outing in over two years. I don’t know about you, but I’d like to see him win at least one more race before he retires.
Grade: 78.6% (C+)
Status: Another who will be here until he retires.

STERLING MARLIN - #40
2483 2 6 10 16
Standing: 1st
Comments: He may not be having the most spectacular season, but Sterling has had – by far – the most consistent, with top-16 finishes in all but three races. People keep saying that Sterling can’t hold the points lead, but he’s held it for 17 consecutive races, and no one seems to be able to take it – even when the door is left wide open.
Grade: 98.8% (A+)
Status: You wouldn’t fire the point’s leader, would you?

MARK MARTIN - #6
2434 1 7 13 15
Standing: 2nd
Comments: After 1.5 years on hiatus, the Mark Martin of old has returned this year, and leads the circuit in top-10 finishes. He’s hot on the heels of Sterling, and after coming close so many times, you could argue that Mark deserves a championship.
Grade: 100.9% (A++)
Status: When he drives his final race, it will be in a #6 Ford owned by Jack Roush.

JEREMY MAYFIELD - #19
1608 0 2 2 7
Standing: 27th
Comments: When Ray Evernham hired Jeremy, he was hoping for the Mayfield of 1998. Instead, he got the Mayfield of 2001. Considering the (lack of) patience that Ray showed with Casey, I’d be feeling a little pressure right now, if I were in this car.
Grade: 67% (D)
Status: Shaky.

JERRY NADEAU - #25, #10, #44, #00
1203 0 0 1 3
Standing: 37th
Comments: After a horrid beginning of the season, Jerry was released from his ride with Hendrick. He has driven a variety of one-race deals since then, and very nearly put PE back in Victory Lane in the process. Still, it’s nowhere near what he undoubtedly expected, after last year’s strong finish.
Grade: 41.3% (F)
Status: Should be able to get a full-time ride for next season – but I won’t guess where.

JOE NEMECHEK - #26, #25
1113 0 0 0 4
Standing: 38th
Comments: Another victim of the K-Mart bankruptcy, Joe was able the land on his feet – just in time to inherit the Curse of the 25. Well, that car only has one win in the last 11+ seasons; why should we expect Joe to set the world on fire in it?
Grade: 42.5% (F)
Status: Likely gone at year’s end.

RYAN NEWMAN - #12
2033 0 6 9 12
Standing: 12th
Comments: It sure has been a streaky year for Ryan. When the car holds up he’s very good, as evidenced by six top-5 finishes (more than JJ) and two poles. Unfortunately, a stretch of four blown engines in six races has brought down his season majorly. He can still finish top-10 in points, but can’t afford another stretch like that one.
Grade: 83.4% (B)

STEVE PARK - #1
1048 0 0 0 1
Standing: 39th
Comments: After coming back from last year’s injuries, Steve has been almost invisible. Some races he has good cars and no luck, but other times, he’s just not competitive. I don’t see him being back in this car next year.
Grade: 42.8% (F)
Status: Perilous, and likely gone.

KYLE PETTY - #45
1871 0 0 1 12
Standing: 18th
Comments: Astounding. Just astounding. That describes the difference between this year and last for Kyle Petty. In 2001, he had 12 DNQ’s and never finished better than 16th (and just two top-20s). This year, he has made every race (and no provisionals) and finished in the top-20 12 times, with a high-water mark of 10th at Talladega. A win for this year may be unlikely, but I won’t be shocked to see a few top-5 finishes and a top-15 in the final point standings.
Grade: 85.8% (B)
Status: He owns this car; it’s his for as long as he wants it.

RICKY RUDD - #28
2274 1 5 7 16
Standing: 7th
Comments: After a slow start to this year – and self-inflicted talks of retirement – Ricky has slowly, consistently worked his way up in the points. He could potentially have 4 wins by now, but his luck in 3 of those cases has been atrocious. Money and trust issues have also put his future with Robert Yates into question. Fact: If Ricky had managed to win those races that he had get away, he would be leading the points right now.
Grade: 88% (B+)
Status: He still has a future as a WC driver; unless Havoline antes up more money, it sure isn’t with Yates.

ELLIOTT SADLER - #21
1818 0 2 4 8
Standing: 20th
Comments: There have been flashes of the talent owners apparently see in Elliott; he has two 2nd-place finishes, two outside poles, and has already doubled his career high in top-10s. Of course that’s not saying much when your previous career high was 2. It’s already known that he’ll be in another car for next year; which car it will be depends on what Ricky Rudd does.
Grade: 71.3% (C-)
Status: He’s gone, probably either to Robert Yates or DEI.

KEN SCHRADER - #36
1385 0 0 0 3
Standing: 33rd
Comments: Ken has had some of the worst luck ever this year – there was Talladega, and Padding Gate; there was California, when the engine let go four laps in; and numerous other incidents. As a result, his has just one top-15 finish to date. For a guy who hasn’t won a WC race sine 1991, I know that this isn’t how he wanted his career to wind down.
Grade: 47.1% (F)
Status: Questionable, due to a current lack of a primary sponsor.

MIKE SKINNER - #4
1535 0 0 0 3
Standing: 29th
Comments: I just know this wasn’t the season that Mike or Morgan-McClure was hoping for. To date, a pair of 12th-place finishes are his best effort, and he doesn’t even have the satisfaction of being ahead of his former car in points. Considering Morgan-McClure went through four drivers last year, Mike shouldn’t be feeling too comfortable.
Grade: 65.5% (D)
Status: Very shaky.

JIMMY SPENCER - #41
1772 0 2 5 7
Standing: 23rd
Comments: What a roller-coaster year for Jimmy. He failed to make the season-opener at Daytona, but a series of Strong runs moved him up to the top-20 in points. It’s gone down of late though. In the last 7 races, he has just one top-20 finish – a 4th at, ironically, Daytona – and has fallen to 23rd in points. He needs to pick it up soon to ensure job security – after all, his teammate IS leading the points.
Grade: 67.9% (D+)
Status: Maybe safe, but who knows?

TONY STEWART - #20
2326 2 8 10 13
Standing: 5th
Comments: It has been the best of times, yet the worst of times. Tony has two wins to date (including his first 500-mile win) and leads the tour in top-5s. The restrictor plate tracks, though, have been his Achilles’ heel; he has yet to finish better than 29th at one. He’s lost 331 points to Sterling Marlin in those races – if he can still beat him out in the points, it will be nothing short of amazing.
Grade: 90.2% (A-)

HUT STRICKLIN - #23
1425 0 0 0 4
Standing: 32nd
Comments: It’s common knowledge that Hut got this ride due to the Hill Bros. Sponsorship. So far, Hut has made sure people know that. He failed to qualify for the Daytona 500, and had just four top-20 finishes in the half. Still if Ward’s miserable luck keeps up, Hut is going to end up passing him in the points.
Grade: 62.2% (D-)
Status: On performance alone, he’s shaky. But the sponsor’s loyalty to Hut is worth a lot in this day and age.

RUSTY WALLACE - #2
2312 0 1 10 15
Standing: 6th
Comments: Rusty has shaped up to be the dark horse for the championship this year. While he has just one top-5 finish (2nd at Daytona), he has been undeniably consistent. His ten top-10s, and completion of all but seven laps, have kept him within striking distance. If he can finish in the top-5 and win more often while remaining consistent, he’ll be a major factor toward season’s end.
Grade: 91.4% (A-)
Status: He has the most team-longevity of any other WC driver, and it looks to stay that way.

MICHAEL WALTRIP - #15
2020 1 4 7 9
Standing: T14th
Comments: Two months ago, Michael was on the job hot seat, and in the center of every rumor. He responded with a torrid nine-race stretch which including three top-5s, six top-10s, and his 2nd career win. He was rewarded with contract extensions from both DEI and NAPA. Considering how hot this team has been, Michael could make his 1st ever visit to the banquet podium come November.
Grade: 84.4% (B)
Status: Signed through 2004, both driver and sponsor.
 
Good analysis, strid, as usual. I continue to applaud your ability to remain objective with each driver. Wish I could...on second thought, no I don't, I LIKE my prejudices. hehehehehehe
 
Stridsberry, they should give you a column somewhere to do your evaluations. They are very good and done in a complete manner. Fine job.:thumbsup:
 
As usual, you have done a FANTASTIC job:thumbsup:

Please check your personal email.

PURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
 
Yea i liked the rankings but what was the forth number top 20's?
 
The numbers went in this order: Points, Wins, Top 5, Top 10, Top 20.
 
stridsberry,
You've done another excellent job. I really enjoyed it. Thank you.
 
ok now i get it thanks (im a little slow when i am out of school)
 
Hey, that is good stuff. No dissagreements here. like when you said that wards luck may be worse than ken schraeders this year, lmao,
thanks.
 
Get the man some Band Aids those fingers sure need em after all that typing. Great analysis.
 
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