2004 nascar point scenarios for the Championship

Whoever gets the most points wins. That's usually how it ends, with the notable exception of 1990...
 
With 5 drivers still mathematically involved, this is a massive amount of data to process.

For each driver there are 128 different possible finishes in the race. (yeah I know there are only 43 cars entered, but there are bonuses for leading a lap and leading the most laps, so it's 43+43+42.)

So there 128 X 128 X 128 X 128 X 128 different scenarios possible. Now some of those aren't actually in play since some of those aren't relevent (Mark Martin finishing 43rd and Mark Martin finishing 42nd for example neither one is possible for Mark to win the championship.)

Thats 34,359,738,368 possible scenarios for the championships.
 
Here's very small sample of what it would take to lay out all the scenarios....

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Kurt Busch, 6346, Leader

* If Kurt wins the race, finishes 2nd while leading a lap, or finishes 4th or better while leading the most laps he will clinch the championship regardless of how the other drivers perform.

* If Kurt finishes 2nd without leading a lap, or 3rd while leading a lap, he will finish the season with 6516 points. The only thing that can stop Kurt from winning with 6516 points is Jimmie Johnson winning and leading the most laps.

* If Kurt finishes 5th while leading the most laps, he will finish the season with 6511 points. To win with 6511 points Kurt will need:
- Jimmie Johnson to finish 2nd or worse.

* If Kurt finishes 3rd without leading a lap, or 4th while leading a lap, he will finish the season with 6511 points. To win with 6511 points Kurt will need the following:
- Jimmie Johnson to finish 2nd or worse AND
- Jeff Gordon to do anything except win while leading the most laps.

* If Kurt finishes 4th without leading a lap, 5th while leading a lap, or 6th while leading the most laps he will finish the season with 6506 points. To win with 6506 points Kurt will need the following:
- Jimmie Johnson to finish 3rd or worse if he leads the most laps OR 2nd or worse if he doesn’t lead the most laps AND
- Jeff Gordon to finish 2nd or worse

* If Kurt finishes 7th while leading the most laps, he will finish the season with 6502 points. To win with 6502 points Kurt will need the following:
- Jimmie Johnson to finish 4th or worse while leading a lap OR 3rd or worse without leading a lap OR 2nd or worse if he fails to lead a lap AND
- Jeff Gordon to finish 3rd or worse while leading the most laps or 2nd or worse if he doesn’t lead the most laps

* If Kurt finishes 6th while leading a lap or 5th without leading a lap, he will finish the season with 6501 points. To win with 6501 points Kurt will need the following:
- Jimmie Johnson to finish 4th or worse while leading a lap OR 3rd or worse without leading a lap OR 2nd or worse if he fails to lead a lap AND
- Jeff Gordon to finish 3rd or worse while leading the most laps OR finish 2nd or worse if he doesn’t lead the most laps

* If Kurt finishes 8th while leading the most laps, he will finish the season with 6498 points. To win with 6498 points Kurt will need the following:
- Jimmie Johnson to finish 5th or worse while leading the most laps OR finish 3rd or worse while leading a lap OR finish 2nd or worse without leading a lap AND
- Jeff Gordon to finish 4th or worse while leading the most laps OR finish 3rd or worse while leading a lap OR finish 2nd or worse without leading a lap

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Now I might be able to make it through all of Kurt's scenarios in my lifetime, but I'd probably be a stark raving lunatic by the the time I'm finished. Of course my wife says I'm already a stark raving lunatic, so not much would change.
 
Okay. I pounded away at this in my brain. I think I can make 5 relatively simple to compile charts to illustrate each drivers championship scenarios. I'll give it a shot later on.

But the good news is I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance with Geico!
 
Forget the chart thing... It isn't gonna work...

I can however post a few observations....

* If Kurt Busch wins the race, finishes 2nd while leading one or more laps, or finishes 3rd while leading the most laps he wins the championship.

* If Kurt Busch finishes 14th or better, Dale Earnhardt Jr is eliminated from the championship.

* If Jimmie Johnson finishes 9th or better, Dale Earnhardt Jr is eliminated from the championship.

* If Jeff Gordon finishes 8th or better, Dale Earnhardt Jr is eliminated from the championship.

* If Kurt Busch finishes 18th or better, Mark Martin is eliminated from the championship.

* If Jimmie Johnson finishes 12th or better, Mark Martin is eliminated from the championship.

* If Jeff Gordon finishes 11th or better, Mark Martin is eliminated from the championship.

I've calculated the actual number of scenarios for the championship at 128 x 114 x 111 x 60 x 49 = 4,761,953,280. Thats 4 trillion 761 million 953 thousand 280 scenarios.
 
Thats 4 trillion 761 million 953 thousand 280 scenarios.
Click to expand...

And not a damn one of them has Eyyit Sadwah with a snowball's chance in Tampa of winning the championship...
 
OK, OK. You've covered the leaders but all the Lil'E fans want to know is where does he have to finish in relationship to them for him to actually win. You know they don't give a rat's behind about any of the rest.
 
Why does it always have to go back to Jr and his fans? :rolleyes:

You think J Johnson fans don't care where he has to finish to win the championship?

What the hell did Jr do that is so wrong? Be popular? What a crime.
 
I'm just trying to ask the questions the demanding public wants to know.
You and I both know that if Lil'E doesn't win the championship or the race or both that the folks in Homestead could possibly riot and burn the track down. I wouldn't put it past them to have rallies at all the tracks NASCAR visits to burn all of them down. That is the mentality many of his fans have I'm sad to say.
And, no I don't see the same attitude from Jimmie's fans, Mark's fans, or even Jeff's fans. Also, Kurt's fan called in sick...
 
Don't feel sorry for me. I won't be one of the ones carrying a torch. Lil'E's fans have an image problem. He has an image problem.
Me, I'm just sorry for Kurt's fan. I hope he gets better...
 
Image problem huh. Voted most popular last year, leading this year. Yeah, his image is in the toilet for sure.
Now of the other chasers:

Busch had his card pulled last year for his behavior.
Gordon cheated on his wife and had a messy divorce.
Johnson? Well pretty clean so far. So I can't say much about him.

Except for a handfull of idiot fans throwing some beer cans on the track, I don't think Jr's fans are all that bad.


For what it's worth. Since Jr is pretty much out of the chase, I was kinda pulling for Gordon.
 
"Me, I'm just sorry for Kurt's fan. I hope he gets better...":barelypure


Stop worrying, dude, I'm fine.



YEEEEHHHAAAWWWW!!! GO KURT GO!!! :beerbang: :beerbang: :beerbang:
 
97forever said:
"Me, I'm just sorry for Kurt's fan. I hope he gets better...":barelypure


Stop worrying, dude, I'm fine.
Click to expand...


He sure as hell set up for that one.
 
It is nice that we have the Kurt fan... :D

Hey, sometimes it's fun to set'em up :eek:
 
EatMorePossum said:
Whoever gets the most points wins. That's usually how it ends, with the notable exception of 1990...
Click to expand...


1990

Winston Cup Standings


NUMBER DRIVER STARTS WINS POINTS
01 Dale Earnhardt 29 9 4430
02 Mark Martin 29 3 4404
03 Geoff Bodine 29 3 4017
04 Bill Elliott 29 1 3999
05 Morgan Shepherd 29 1 3689
06 Rusty Wallace 29 2 3676
07 Ricky Rudd 29 1 3601
08 Alan Kulwicki 29 1 3599
09 Ernie Irvan 29 1 3593
10 Ken Schrader 29 0 3572



No, still looks like Dale won.....
 
fergy1370 said:
1990

Winston Cup Standings


NUMBER DRIVER STARTS WINS POINTS
01 Dale Earnhardt 29 9 4430
02 Mark Martin 29 3 4404
03 Geoff Bodine 29 3 4017
04 Bill Elliott 29 1 3999
05 Morgan Shepherd 29 1 3689
06 Rusty Wallace 29 2 3676
07 Ricky Rudd 29 1 3601
08 Alan Kulwicki 29 1 3599
09 Ernie Irvan 29 1 3593
10 Ken Schrader 29 0 3572



No, still looks like Dale won.....
Click to expand...

Unless you remember the season, that is...
 
Ok, this is two years old, back when Mark was chasing Tony for the title, but still contains some good views by him on the subject of being "titleless". Some of ya'll that missed it the first time around might find it interesting.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Cup-less Martin gets no respect
Doubters of driver persist despite his 33 victories
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Sandra McKee
Sun Staff
Originally published July 6, 2002



DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. - Retired Miami Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino never won a Super Bowl, but no one doubts his greatness. NASCAR driver Mark Martin should be so lucky.
Now, sitting in his team's transporter, he is listening to remarks made by Fox television analysts Darrell Waltrip and Larry McReynolds, and Martin's blood pressure is rising.

Speaking during a conference call a few days ago, Waltrip and McReynolds had a conversation that went like this:

"Over the past couple months, Mark Martin has been the most consistent of the whole group [of drivers]," said McReynolds.

"Yeah," said Waltrip, a three-time Winston Cup champion, "but history tells me Roush Racing hasn't won a championship."

"Not to say anything negative against Roush Racing or Mark Martin," said McReynolds. "They've put themselves in position to win a championship, [but] when it comes down to the final hour, they hit the panic button too hard."

Martin is silent.

His jaw begins to work.

He inches forward on his chair, and now, he has advanced to within an inch of the interviewer's face.

[/B] "We were penalized out of a championship in 1990, when we weren't in violation of any performance issue," said Martin, recalling the unapproved manifold that resulted in one of the rare times NASCAR has taken points away for a post-race rules violation. "Another year, we were racing the most fierce competitor of all - Dale Earnhardt. We were desperately trying to win, but we were only in our third year and Dale Earnhardt was at his very best."

Martin paused for breath.

"You don't win these things when you go against the very best at their very best," he said. "When you go against Richard Petty at his best - ask Darrell Waltrip. He couldn't win a title against R.P. at his best. You win them when R.P. isn't at his best. That's when Darrell Waltrip won and others won titles, when Darrell wasn't at his best."

Martin has finished second in the Winston Cup championship race three times. He has been unlucky enough to be at his best at the same time Earnhardt was at his in 1990 and 1994 and when Jeff Gordon was rolling up the largest points total (5,328) in the sport's history in 1998.

"I didn't panic and neither did my team," Martin growled. "It's irritating because those guys don't know what they're talking about."

Now the 20-year veteran is livid, but he doesn't want to be. He doesn't even acknowledge that he is.

"I really don't care what people think," he said. "Maybe I'm not good enough to win a championship, but I've won more trophies than some guys who have won two championships. Some of those guys haven't won as many races as I have, but they have championships. What have they had that I haven't? Luck. I'm not Darrell Waltrip."

Actually, Martin's 33 wins are better than seven of the sport's 24 champions, including two-time titlists Terry Labonte (21 wins) and Joe Weatherly (24).

And Martin, 43, is once more second in the championship race, 62 points behind Sterling Marlin as the series advances toward the season's halfway point today in the Pepsi 400 at Daytona International Speedway.

It is something of an amazing place to find him. Last season was one of his most disappointing. He didn't win a race and finished 12th in points. It was his worst performance since 1988.

But this season has been different. And when he is talking about his team and his performance, the darkness leaves his blue eyes and a smile cracks his stern face.

"We have more engine power," he said, explaining his revival. "We have a better handling car. And, we have better pit stops. That boils down to a faster car and I'm not losing time in the pits."

And the driver?

"The driver is the same," he said. "I didn't just get smarter. I don't think Sterling is leading the points and I'm second because of more experience. I think we're there because we have good cars. Obviously, we've made fewer mistakes than some - but not fewer than Jeff Gordon or Bobby Labonte. It's just that I'm driving a faster car. I think that's why we're where we are right now."

This might be his year, or not. A lot of people are saying it is the year of the young drivers. Martin can't say about that. But he is absolutely sure if he doesn't win it won't be because he or his team pushed any panic button.

"If I have an advantage," he said, "it's that I've had worse than average luck, and there is always a chance for a coin flipping and landing on the other side. That could determine this championship. It's going to be the guy who doesn't have the flat tire, who didn't break the dollar part. It isn't going to be because someone was young and dumb or old and wise - though I won't say someone won't say that after the fact."



Copyright © 2002, The Baltimore Sun
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EatMorePossum said:
Unless you remember the season, that is...
Click to expand...

What race did Nacar take way the points? and how faw was in behind/in front when it happand? and what did they fine him for?


But ya'll remember 2002 EA Sports 500 at Dega, im sure Marks Steering stuck....cause he kept gettin higher and higher on the track the then shot down and took out Jimmy, its called a BRAKE Mark, plus ou did not have to keep gettin that high on the track cause up there you was just pickin up rocks. I belive if it was not for that Jimmy would of won the race. Now don't start on me "Mark's a class act, he would not do that" When you get behind that wheel you are a differnt person.
 
A five way tie? #6-Mark Martin wins the race but doesn't lead the most laps. #8-Dale Earnhardt Jr. finishes second and gets bonus points for leading a lap. #24-Jeff Gordon finishes 13th. #48-Jimmie Johnson finishes 14th, and #97-Kurt Busch finishes 20th. The result is that all five end the season with 6,449 points. Johnson get the championship on the tiebreaker with a season-high eight victories.(
 
Jeff Gordon leads the most laps and wins His first race at Homestead in the Cup Series,Kurt Busch finishes 4th and leads several laps as well finishing -4 points off the point leader,Jimmie Johnson comes in 2nd after leading some laps and finishes -12 points off point leader and Champion Jeff Gordon.Yeah,that sounds good.LOL
 
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