2010 Chase Prediction

SpeedPagan

SpeedPagan

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Yea yea yea, Chase sucks, whatever. Now it's time to make your Chase prediction!

1. Jimmie Johnson will bring home #5, but with Kevin Harvick coming in a very close 2nd. Last year, Jimmie was able to relax during the last race of the chase, not this time.

That's my only prediction.
 
I honestly have no idea I'll think about it after New Hampshire
 
Right now, I'm thinkin Busch and Hamlin . If momentum means anything,I think they have it.They rest are hoping to find it during the chase.
 
Well I'm still going with Johnson. We've seen how good they are in the chase and I don't think this year will be any different.
 
If nothing else, I do see a lot more competition up front. Of course, that could always change.
 
My prediction is that Matt Kenseth will win the championship by not winning a race. This will cause wholesale changes once again to the chase and points systems.
 
I'm going to make my pick simply on who's been running the best leading up to the Chase over the past 10 events. Carl Edwards is going to win without ever having won a race to qualify for the Chase. Heck, he may even win the Chase without wining a race. Right now, he's carrying into the Chase the kind of consistency that's needed to walk away with the hardware.

Here's how these guys stack up over the past 10 races leading to the Chase.....

Carl Edwards - 1407 points
Tony Stewart - 1259
Kevin Harvick - 1234
Jeff Burton - 1231
Clint Bowyer - 1217
Jeff Gordon - 1191
Kyle Busch - 1167
Matt Kenseth - 1142
Greg Biffle - 1051
Kurt Busch - 1049
Denny Hamlin - 1038
Jimmie Johnson - 1033
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
I'm going to make my pick simply on who's been running the best leading up to the Chase over the past 10 events. Carl Edwards is going to win without ever having won a race to qualify for the Chase. Heck, he may even win the Chase without wining a race. Right now, he's carrying into the Chase the kind of consistency that's needed to walk away with the hardware.

Here's how these guys stack up over the past 10 races leading to the Chase.....

Carl Edwards - 1407 points
Tony Stewart - 1259
Kevin Harvick - 1234
Jeff Burton - 1231
Clint Bowyer - 1217
Jeff Gordon - 1191
Kyle Busch - 1167
Matt Kenseth - 1142
Greg Biffle - 1051
Kurt Busch - 1049
Denny Hamlin - 1038
Jimmie Johnson - 1033
Click to expand...

That certainly sheds a different light on things.

You just made my day DP. :beerbang:
 
I certainly wouldn't pick against Johnson. But they don't seem as bullet-proof right now as they have been in past years.
 
I don't know about Hamlin and Busch, they always do good at Richmond, doesn't mean they'll win the Chase. Hamlin hasn't been consistent at all this season (which is why I don't think he deserves the top seed).

This crap reminds me of the days of Rusty's dominance -- he won a ton of races but wasn't consistent which is why Earnhardt won the championship in 1993 and 1994. Even he'll admit he didn't deserve to win championships those seasons.

I'd like to see more points for winning, but I don't think winning should be how we determine the champion. Besides, like someone else said, someone like Bowyer could end up winning a championship.

If anyone other than Harvick wins the championship, I'll be upset. Harvick deserves it, nobody else has run good enough for me to say that.
 
I hate to say it but I think JJ will take home #5, I just don't see any of those other guys beating them down the stretch. Every one of the 10 chase tracks is in Johnson's favor, all he has to do is finish all 10 races in the top 10 and the Cup is his. If he indeed wins this again, then this whole chase thing has failed and they need to go back to the old points format...
 
Restrictor Plate King! said:
Every one of the 10 chase tracks is in Johnson's favor.
Click to expand...

About the only way NASCAR could structure the Chase to be 'Jimmie Johnson proof' is to alternate all 10 Chase races between Sonoma & Watkins Glen.

Here's some of his numbers.....

Speedways (2 mi. +) - 13.6 Avg. finish
Speedways (1-2 mi.) - 10.1
Short Tracks - 12.9
Road Courses - 15.1

Those are lifetime numbers. They drop way down if you only factor in the last five years. He's a machine.
 
Restrictor Plate King! said:
...all he has to do is finish all 10 races in the top 10 and the Cup is his....
Click to expand...
uhh how? say jj finishes 10th in all races. anybody else in the chase (take your pick), wins 2 or 3 and finishes in the top 3-5 of all races. jj still wins? i don't think so....
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
About the only way NASCAR could structure the Chase to be 'Jimmie Johnson proof' is to alternate all 10 Chase races between Sonoma & Watkins Glen.

Here's some of his numbers.....

Speedways (2 mi. +) - 13.6 Avg. finish
Speedways (1-2 mi.) - 10.1
Short Tracks - 12.9
Road Courses - 15.1

Those are lifetime numbers. They drop way down if you only factor in the last five years. He's a machine.
Click to expand...

Ah JEEZ. After you made my day now you have to go and pee in my corn flakes! :D
 
This is the first time in several years that I have no idea who is gonna win this thing. Several of the guys have hit some good stretches this year, the only one that has been consistent throughout is Harvick. Hamlin and Johnson have both seen winning streaks this year. Burton and Gordon have both seen streaks of "almost winning." But as we know, close only counts in horshoes. Edwards and Stewart have both been solid lately. The question is who can peak at the right time...which happens to be the next ten weeks. If Harvick continues the trend of the regular season, he will be standing with the trophy.
 
Gordon_Fan24 said:
This is the first time in several years that I have no idea who is gonna win this thing. Several of the guys have hit some good stretches this year, the only one that has been consistent throughout is Harvick. Hamlin and Johnson have both seen winning streaks this year. Burton and Gordon have both seen streaks of "almost winning." But as we know, close only counts in horshoes. Edwards and Stewart have both been solid lately. The question is who can peak at the right time...which happens to be the next ten weeks. If Harvick continues the trend of the regular season, he will be standing with the trophy.
Click to expand...

That's pretty much what I've been thinking...that and how nice the other drivers will play with the #48 this time around - especially the #24.
 
#17D500winner said:
I'm thinking that Gordon wants #5 every bit as much as Johnson does.
Click to expand...

Yeah, if Jeff can get back to being as competitive as he was there earlier in the season, that could make for some interesting racing.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
I'm going to make my pick simply on who's been running the best leading up to the Chase over the past 10 events. Carl Edwards is going to win without ever having won a race to qualify for the Chase. Heck, he may even win the Chase without wining a race. Right now, he's carrying into the Chase the kind of consistency that's needed to walk away with the hardware.

Here's how these guys stack up over the past 10 races leading to the Chase.....

Carl Edwards - 1407 points
Tony Stewart - 1259
Kevin Harvick - 1234
Jeff Burton - 1231
Clint Bowyer - 1217
Jeff Gordon - 1191
Kyle Busch - 1167
Matt Kenseth - 1142
Greg Biffle - 1051
Kurt Busch - 1049
Denny Hamlin - 1038
Jimmie Johnson - 1033
Click to expand...

Is it me or does this seem more like wishful thinking? You know as well as I do that Jimmie Johnson saves his best set up for The Chase. He hangs around in the top 12 during the regular races, winning a few races, and staying in the top 10. However, once he's in the Chase he puts the pedal to the metal and charges his way to a Chase Championship. I don't really see any reason to expect anything else this time around.

I do think that it will come down to the wire between Harvick and Johnson though.
 
SpeedPagan said:
Is it me or does this seem more like wishful thinking? You know as well as I do that Jimmie Johnson saves his best set up for The Chase. He hangs around in the top 12 during the regular races, winning a few races, and staying in the top 10. However, once he's in the Chase he puts the pedal to the metal and charges his way to a Chase Championship.
Click to expand...

Definite wishful thinking.

Here's some more numbers to chew on courtesy Jayski.....

Chasers' Performance At Next 10 Tracks:
Driver, Starts, Wins, Driver Rating

#48-Jimmie Johnson, 146, 32, 111.0
#24-Jeff Gordon, 253, 32, 98.8
#14-Tony Stewart, 187, 14, 95.8
#18-Kyle Busch, 102, 6, 93.7
#11-Denny Hamlin, 86, 6, 92.8
#17-Matt Kenseth, 176, 8, 92.2
#99-Carl Edwards, 106, 6, 91.2
#16-Greg Biffle, 134, 9, 90.7
#2-Kurt Busch, 162, 9, 90.2
#31-Jeff Burton, 243, 13, 87.4
#29-Kevin Harvick, 158, 4, 84.5
#33-Clint Bowyer, 81, 1, 84.5

The Driver Rating Formula combines the following categories: Win, Finish, Top-15 Finish, Average Running Position While on Lead Lap, Average Speed Under Green, Fastest Lap, Led Most Laps, Lead-Lap Finish. Maximum: 150 points per race. Must have raced in 75% of scheduled point-paying races.
 
MRM said:
Gordon will not win it because of his crew chief.
Click to expand...

I actually agree with that, however, I didn't say he would win it, I said that it would be interesting to see him and the 48 mix it up some more lol
 
I find it interesting that most people don't even mention cousin Carl and Smoke. I will wait a few races before I make a choice.
 
Smoke14 said:
I find it interesting that most people don't even mention cousin Carl and Smoke. I will wait a few races before I make a choice.
Click to expand...

I can only speak for myself but I didn't mention them because I don't think they'll be a factor.

Of course, I'm pullng for the #17 but realistically don't expect him to win the chase... if for no other reason than I don't think he believes he can pull it off.
 
I want Kyle to win it all but I'm not feeling it. He and the team aren't quite there yet I don't think.

Would not mind Gordon getting #5, just because he is Gordon and doesn't have much time left.


But smart money goes with Johnson for obvious reasons. Until he doesn't win the Chase I'm always going to bet on him.
 
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