Lets break this down:
The top 4 in standings (JJ, Clint, Mr Media, The Closer) have a lot more points than anyone else. They are virtual locks for the chase.
Due to his 3 wins, Kenseth is a virtual lock too. And Kyle Busch has 2, meaning it is very likely he will make the chase as well. I doubt either of them will need to use a wildcard, though, but they both have been inconsistant this season, so who knows.
Dale Jr is a very consistent driver, I don't see him winning any races this season or contending for the championship, but it is quite likely he will make the chase.
Greg Biffle has been running good recently, so unless his/Ford's performance drops off a cliff like it did in April and June, I don't see him dropping out.
Martin Truex Jr. is also very consistent, plus he has a win to back him up. I forsee him making the chase one way or another, whether it is through wildcard or the top 10. Officially though I will say top ten.
Kasey Kahne has been running great lately, he has just had bad luck (in fact I dare say he has been the unluckiest driver this season). He has been having a rash of bad finishes lately, but he has been running good, plus he has a win to fall back on, so I think he will make the chase, alas via the wildcard.
That leaves room for two drivers, one wildcard, one not. Chubby Wrecker is the obvious choice for wildcard #1, seeing as though he has been hovering around the 10-15 area and he has one win. However, he hasn't been running great lately, and I have a feeling a driver like Ol Gordy, Toast, or Bad Brad could get another win and shake things up. Of the two, I think Joey is the most likely to break through and steal a win, but he has just been rather inconsistent this season and is lacking that extra umph needed to get a win. So I will say that Chubby Wrecker will get the second wild card.
That leaves room for one final driver to make the top 10. The likely contenders are Kurt Busch, Bad Brad, Ol Gordy, and Toast. Kurt Busch seems the most obvious out of these because for a lot of the season he has been running great but had bad luck; plus he is in the top 10 right now. However, he has a sucky pit crew that typically losses him a lot of places on pit road, plus he often beats himself on the track (such as Michigan). So I see him barely missing the spot. Joey Logano, like I recapped in the post above, could get a win, but has been rather inconsistent. So for now I will rule him out. That leaves Bad Brad and Ol Gordy. They both have had their share of bad luck this season, and in the case of Bad Brad, their share of point penalties as well. This is a close one, as I can see either breaking through and picking up their performance enough to clinch the last spot, like Greg Biffle and Chubby Wrecker have done this season. But of the two, Ol Gordy has had slightly worse luck, as at times Bad Brad just hasn't been fast. Hell at Michigan, a day in which a lot of top drivers had issues, he finished 12th, which doesn't seem too bad until you realize he was beat by Austin Dillon and Jeff Burton. Meanwhile, Jeff has done good lately, and with all the top 5s he has gotton in the last 6 or so races, I wonder why he isn't higher in points. So I will say he will make it, and the defending champ won't(!)
Chubby Wrecker? 
