25th or Better

H

HardScrabble

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According to my calculations Tony needs to finish 25th or better and he cannot lose the points lead this weekend. ONly JJ and Mark have a shot at taking the lead.

Tony has run this race three times. Twice he finished 41st once in his rookie year and again last year. In between those two he posted a win.

Overall his career average is a 17th including a third in this years spring race.

JJ has only run Martinsville one time in WC. DNF'd his way to a 35th.

Mark Martin over the span as Tony's career has an average finish of 13.4, with a win in the spring of 2000. The last five years Mark has an average finish of 12.7.

But it seems things have changed a bit at Martinsville with the grinding of the concrete. Tires may well be the deciding factor, ignoring the vagaries of short track racing in general.

If tire management becomes the deciding factor. Mark would likely have to get the edge, more experience and patience. Of the top 5 right now biggest disadvantage would be Rusty who tends to abuse a right front. Ryan might be just a scooch above Rusty, not sure. JJ and Tony probably about even on tire management, hard to say.

Look for Tony to hold the lead. He's been on a roll and if the setup for the Home Depot car is good he can win this race. If the setup is not so good, look for his lead to be reduced.

Opinions may vary.
 
Welcome back HS. Missed ya.

Mark missed a golden opportunity to cut some points last week. It's gonna be hard to make them up unless Tony has a fluke happen to him....and it can. I too think Mark shaves less than 20 off Tony's lead this week, if any at all. About the only place left where I think Mark has a real shot at gaining a bunch is The Rock.

I picked Tony preseason, and changed my mind to Mark. Either way, one of my predictions should come through. :p
 
Nice read, thanks ScrabbleDude.

Tony is a hero or zero kind of guy. My kind of racer. Martinsville is tough little track where anything can happen. Because of the grinding it just got tougher. Look for less than half to field to finish on the lead lap with a fourth of them behind the wall.

And yup, good to see yer stuff again.
 
I'm pretty much feeling like Tony has this thing in the bag. I know it's a long way from being over but it just seems like it's his title to lose at this point. I couldn't see anyone out racing him for it.
 
Tony should be heavily favored to maintain for the rest of the year. The only thing he has ever lacked was consistency there have been very very few races over the past three years or so when the team was way out in left field with the car.

This weekend, as in all them this year, the winner will likely be the best set up car. With all the ballyhoo over rules this, and rules that it still seems to come back to the basics. Get the car right, keep it right throughout the race, and ya got a dem good shot at taking the checker.

Martinsville will magnify that credo and reward the setup. Prioviding the driver will think tires early and often. Cautions iwll play a major role in diciding just how much of an issue tire management is in the closing laps. Racing luck is racing luck and no one can predict or control it, and after setup will the next biggest factor, IMO.
 
Great read as usual HS. I guess we'll see just how hard these tires really are :) As usual you make excellent points about tire wear and Mark Martin (although I'm hardly a Martin fan) The only thing that could even this out would be a bad set up on the #6.
 
It's Martinsville, there will be bumping and spinning everywhere. If qualifying doesn't get rained out and anyone in the top 5 in points qualifies poorly then we could possibly see some interesting moves in the points. I don't know what to expect this weekend, and personally I like that...let's see what happens and who spins out and loses tires.
 
It Will sure be very interesting, And I'll bet that A surprise or two might just happen. I'll be tuning in for sure...
 
Anything can happen, but right now it is Tony's cup to lose.
 
Originally posted by Ciggie
It's Martinsville, there will be bumping and spinning everywhere.  If qualifying doesn't get rained out and anyone in the top 5 in points qualifies poorly then we could possibly see some interesting moves in the points.  I don't know what to expect this weekend, and personally I like that...let's see what happens and who spins out and loses tires.
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Agreed ciggie, and one thing that will be important as well will be to stay out of harm's way. JUST BE SAFE OUT THERE, and I think Tony will win the Cup.
 
Tony has reached the point where there is a "magic number" for the championship.

The number is now "2". If Tony finishes 2nd or better in the remaining races no one can catch him.

In the realm of mathmatical possibility 18 drivers can win the championship. For those currently 19th or worse in the standings, the mathmatical possibility has ended.
 
Originally posted by HardScrabble


The number is now "2". If Tony finishes 2nd or better in the remaining races no one can catch him.
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Unclear...

If he finishes 2nd just once, then it's his to walk away with?
 
Think he means if he finishes second or better in the remaining races, he wins the cup.


I think that's what he means, anyway.....:eek:
 
That just doesn't sound right. So for him to win the whole thing, he either has to win or come in second every race from here on out?
 
IF he wins or places in the second spot, its his for the taking...no matter where anyone else finishes.....


I doubt very seriously that happens, but I think he has a good chance to walk away with it this year.
 
So he only has to finish second or better one time? Or every time.

Is it time for me to go to bed?
 
I think it means, if he finishes 2nd or better here on out, it's mathematically impossible for anyone else to win.
 
Nite nite ;)




He can wrap it up, no questions asked if he places second or first in every race left this season.

If he wins or comes in second in the remaining races for the 2002 season, he is Winston Cup Champ.

Tony will be the NWCC if he he places 1st or 2nd in every race that is left this year.


:D
 
Well, that does seem fairly obvious now, having rethought it a bit...

A more interesting question to me is, what's the worst Tony can possibly place in the next five races and still be able to win the Cup?

Actually, maybe that's a stupid question...:uhmnotsur
 
I was going to ask the same thing abooja, thanks for asking that:) Also, what if the same driver wins all of the remaining races. I know this is farfetched, but it could happen. If Tony has to place second, how could he still win? Please educate the uninformed!
 
This late? It's only 9:00, did you have a long day chasing bad guys?
 
So what about the rest of the drivers? They all have to come in first in order to win?
 
Hey inquiring minds want to know:) I do like that the points race is this close.
 
Originally posted by sgbg88
I was going to ask the same thing abooja, thanks for asking that:)  Also, what if the same driver wins all of the remaining races. I know this is farfetched, but it could happen. If Tony has to place second, how could he still win?  Please educate the uninformed!
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If Tony's closest contenter wins every race from now the the end and leads the most laps he will get 185 points per race. If tony gets 2nd place and does not lead the most laps he will get 175 points per race. The difference is 10 points per race or 50 points for the remaining races. Tony is more than 50 points ahead (forgot but think it's 92). He can't be overtaken mathmatically. He would win.......no matter what anyone else does.
 
Now, all I need is for Tony to place 2nd or better in the remaining five races just so I don't have to break out the abacus. :p
 
So it's Tony's champsionship to loose. Should be a very intertesting short track race this week, can't wait to see the action. Thanks for the info DE 2
 
Originally posted by kat2220
DEW, does that factor in leading at least 1 lap??
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No Kat, that is not factored in. The second place without leading any laps is 175 points.
 
I highly doubt Tony will get 2nd or 1st for the next 6 races, but it would definitely make this championship easier to figure out. I think this weekend could have an impact on what happens, short track racing can bring out the most interesting racing and results.
 
Originally posted by Ciggie
I highly doubt Tony will get 2nd or 1st for the next 6 races, but it would definitely make this championship easier to figure out.  I think this weekend could have an impact on what happens, short track racing can bring out the most interesting racing and results.
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Placing numbers and statistics on the Championship race until the finish of the last race (or when a driver is more than 185 points times the number of races left ahead) is always a dangerous thing to stake your earnings on. It's very fluid......changes every race. The numbers today are just junk next Monday. It's math with the numbers that are relevant at this moment.....next Monday you have all new numbers to work with. Tony's in the cat bird's seat right now.......but anyone of the drivers in the top four could overtake him (assuming he doesn't finish 2nd or better). Good points race.....best I'm seen since I've been watching (20+ years).
 
Originally posted by DE Wrangler 2
No Kat, that is not factored in.  The second place without leading any laps is 175 points.
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Duh, me dumb...........

BUT what if Tony lead the MOST laps in 1 out of the 5 races left AND lead at least 1 lap in each of the other four but finished 3rd.......

NEVER MIND, Trig and Calculus weren't my best subjects.
 
Originally posted by DE Wrangler 2
No Kat, that is not factored in.  The second place without leading any laps is 175 points.
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You're wrong, DE Wrangler. It's 170 points for finishing 2nd and not leading, not 175. 175-170-165-160, is how it goes. But the winner always gets at least 180 anyway.
 
Gets complicated Kat........just a fun excersize to go through. Put all the "what ifs" into the equation and you get a whole new set of numbers to work with. Let's just say "It ain't over till its over". If Tony goes into Homestead with 186 points or more ahead, you could say the Championship is over before the race starts......short of that, it's going to be decided at the checkered flag of the last race.
 
Originally posted by stridsberry
You're wrong, DE Wrangler.  It's 170 points for finishing 2nd and not leading, not 175.  175-170-165-160, is how it goes.  But the winner always gets at least 180 anyway.
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You're right Strides......my mistake. I took the 180 for the winner and forgot the five bonus points he automatically gets. Subtracted from that 180 instead of 175.....Thanks. Tony still can't be beat since it's still 75 points for the remaining races that the closest competitor can gain........not enough.

Thanks for the correction.:)
 
Didn't think this would be so confusing, sorry.

If Tony finishes second in every race from here to seasons end he would earn 170 points each race. If JJ won each of those races and led the most laps in each of those races Jimmie would earn 185 points per race. This would leave the final points for those two this way:

Tony Stewart - 4978
Jimmie Johnson - 4956

Tony would win the championship by 22 points.

The "magic number" will change following every race remaining depending on how the competitors finish. Obviously the "magic number" starts at "1", this is the first week that the number has been higher than that.
 
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