T
TonyB
Guest
From Jayski...
Heading to Rockingham, four drivers remain mathematically in contention -- six actually. If Kenseth just walked away -- see you, guys -- and refused to run the final two races, Ryan Newman (329 behind) and Kevin Harvick (351 out) could still have long shots. Realistically, however, the four remaining are Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon, who has only the slimmest of chances.
The fewest points (season total) Kenseth can score, at 34 per race [as long as he starts each race], is 4896. The most points fourth-place Gordon can accumulate, by winning and leading the most laps, is 4898. So here are the odds for the final three challengers.
#24-Jeff Gordon is simplest. He must win both Rockingham and at Homestead and lead the most laps in both, with Kenseth finishing last (43rd) in both and not leading at all. Meanwhile, Gordon has to hope that Johnson finishes no better than fifth (not leading a lap) or sixth (leading at least one lap). It also is necessary that Earnhardt finish no better than eighth in either race (leading no laps) or 10th (leading at least one).
#48-Jimmie Johnson can win it by winning and leading the most laps in both races, plus the following circumstances: Kenseth must finish no better than 33rd (leading no laps) or 31st (leading one lap). The difference between third-place Johnson and second-place Earnhardt is problematic -- just 13 points. Therefore, in addition to Kenseth's misfortunes, Johnson must hope that Earnhardt either a) finishes second without leading a lap in one or the other of the races, or that Earnhardt's final two finishes are second and third.
Being second, #8-Dale Earnhardt's chances revolve around Kenseth, who as noted can average 30th place and tie it up. Earnhardt must win and lead the most laps in each of the final two, with Kenseth finishing 31st or worse in both (without leading a lap) or 33rd (with one lap led in each race).
Matt Kenseth will clinch the 'final' Winston Cup points championship under the following scenarios:
Finish 7th or higher Sunday at Rockingham
Finish 18th or higher Sunday and start season finale at Homestead next week
Finish 30th or higher in the last two races
Hold at least a 186-point lead in the standings after Sunday
......
Now if someone would do all the math of the Busch series
Heading to Rockingham, four drivers remain mathematically in contention -- six actually. If Kenseth just walked away -- see you, guys -- and refused to run the final two races, Ryan Newman (329 behind) and Kevin Harvick (351 out) could still have long shots. Realistically, however, the four remaining are Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon, who has only the slimmest of chances.
The fewest points (season total) Kenseth can score, at 34 per race [as long as he starts each race], is 4896. The most points fourth-place Gordon can accumulate, by winning and leading the most laps, is 4898. So here are the odds for the final three challengers.
#24-Jeff Gordon is simplest. He must win both Rockingham and at Homestead and lead the most laps in both, with Kenseth finishing last (43rd) in both and not leading at all. Meanwhile, Gordon has to hope that Johnson finishes no better than fifth (not leading a lap) or sixth (leading at least one lap). It also is necessary that Earnhardt finish no better than eighth in either race (leading no laps) or 10th (leading at least one).
#48-Jimmie Johnson can win it by winning and leading the most laps in both races, plus the following circumstances: Kenseth must finish no better than 33rd (leading no laps) or 31st (leading one lap). The difference between third-place Johnson and second-place Earnhardt is problematic -- just 13 points. Therefore, in addition to Kenseth's misfortunes, Johnson must hope that Earnhardt either a) finishes second without leading a lap in one or the other of the races, or that Earnhardt's final two finishes are second and third.
Being second, #8-Dale Earnhardt's chances revolve around Kenseth, who as noted can average 30th place and tie it up. Earnhardt must win and lead the most laps in each of the final two, with Kenseth finishing 31st or worse in both (without leading a lap) or 33rd (with one lap led in each race).
Matt Kenseth will clinch the 'final' Winston Cup points championship under the following scenarios:
Finish 7th or higher Sunday at Rockingham
Finish 18th or higher Sunday and start season finale at Homestead next week
Finish 30th or higher in the last two races
Hold at least a 186-point lead in the standings after Sunday
......
Now if someone would do all the math of the Busch series
