Are the winningest drivers in WC behind us?

97forever

97forever

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I like to speculate.My question is this:Are any of the top 5 winningest Cup drivers in history likely to be surpassed?

This may be totally useless speculation,but still fun to figure.

Richard Petty:200 wins.

David Pearson:105 wins.

Bobby Allison:85 wins[84 listed--b.s]

Darrell Waltrip:84 wins

Cale Yarborough:83 wins.

[Dale Earnhardt had 76,by the way]
Also interesting to note that these five all raced against each other and all finished top ten in points in 1976.

I am pretty sure that both Pearson and Petty are untouchable:7th place man Jeff Gordon would have to win 45 more races to catch second place Pearson.5 wins per year for the next nine years isnt likely.And I use Gordon as the standard comparision for most of the stats on here.

So that leaves the only real race to be to third place.Or 86 wins.

Now granted a shorter race schedule hampers this,but not as much as one might think given the slightly younger[but just slightly] age of todays most likely to reach the mark drivers.

Here are the top few drivers of today that have a realistic shot,IMO.

Gordon of course:61 wins at age 31 is amazing to say the least.

Stewart:Actually a bit older than Jeff and with 15 wins it looks doubtful.On the plus side,Smoke appears to have more 'drive' than most of todays drivers.Desire alone should keep him rolling.

Those are the only two over age 31 drivers even close:Jeff Burton is 35 with 17,Bobby Labonte is 38 with 19.Forget it.

However,for those that would like to see the top 5 all time change a bit ,the below listed guys have one advantage over Jeff and Tony.Namely,they are younger and some are actually farther along in wins per races than Gordon was at the same age.

Matt Kenseth:Just barely younger than Jeff or Tony.7 wins.But they have came pretty early in his career and he seems to have stepped up the game a bit.Still unlikely to catch Bobby though.

Jr.Not a fan of his,but his numbers actually mirror Matt's pretty closely--and he is two years younger.His biggest shortcoming at this early point is his limited versatility,however.Kenseth has won at a variety of tracks.And Jr. hasn't.28 years old,7 wins.

Now we narrow things down...and get even younger.

Jimmie Johnson.At 27 with three wins and in a magic Hendrick car.Have to keep the pace up.But young enough to reach pretty high.

Kevin Harvick:hurts to even type his name :) !Still,like Johnson,three wins at age 27.Not as good as Jimmie and not in as good a car.Not as likely.

So far we have only two that have a pretty good shot:Gordon because of his already 61 wins,and Johnson because of his younger age.But a couple of guys have even better odds.

Ryan Newman:25 years old and one win.A lot of drivers have had that or better.But Newman is something special.A driver with his adaptability and determination comes along rarely.A LOT more wins are in this kid.He will be one of the winningest of all time,IMO.

And finally[and not just because of the number]:

Kurt Busch.The youngest driver in the field at 24 and with more wins than Gordon had after his sophomore year,with 4.Still 82 wins to go is a lot.Kurt has the time if the cars and teams can support him.

Still,this is all just speculation and presuming the drivers mentioned can continue with the success they have had to this point.Really just a fun little numbers game to see what you folks think.

Personally,I dont think the top five will ever change.Gordon will reach about eighty,maybe.A lot of the above mentioned will reach 50...but the top 5 are safe,IMO.


These are my opinions.What are yours?
 
First things first. where is Bobby listed at 84 wins? I have always had him at 85 and a quick look at three of the references I usually use for that kind of thing have him at 85 also. Just curious.

As to the question.

Yes I think it is very possible. And the driver most likely to break into that top 5 at this point is Jeff Gordon. Consider he is 31 years old. If races until he is 45, which very posiible and averages two wins per year, which is not at all a wild estimate he would end up winning 28 more races. add those to the 61 he has now and he is at 89. That would rank him third. even he won two races per year until he ws 40, and then one per year after that until he was 45 that should put him even with Waltrip.

There is no guarantee that he wil do this, but it certainly within shouting distance.

No one else has been on enough of a streak as yet to seriously challenge the top 5.

**required disclaimer: "IMHO only. Variances in actual facts and events are to be expected"
 
I really think Jeff has a shot at third place at least. Maybe even second. No shot at all at first place. 200 wins in simply unbelievable. He is certainly capable of pulling off a 5-7 win season this year or next. That would greatly reduce the number of wins needed in HS' formula to pass old DW and the other 80+ boys.

Now how long he will choose to race is another story entirely. He is financially set for life even with Brooke taking half of it or so. He may just decide risking his life is just not worth it anymore. Especially if he runs into a streak of not winning like he is used to. Winning as much as he has kind of helps keep you enthused I would think. If he were to hit a Terry Labonte type streak, for instance, would he stick around for years with no legitimate shot at winning another title? Who knows?
 
Yeah a good point,4x....I sort of factor in a 'slump' at some point for most drivers. Nothing to suggest that WILL occur,it just seems sort of likely to me. :)





[And,HS,I dropped you a p.m.]
 
Is it really fair to compare some of these drivers to todays, they raced alot more races during the years. On average how many races were there per year, all through pettys winning years?? also on average how many races per year were there when darrell waltrip ( leader in wins for modern day raceing) raced??
 
It may not be fair Smack, but it is the only way to compare really. I think Jeff stacks up pretty well even with the obvious disadvantage in terms of races per year.
 
Originally posted by smack500@Mar 3 2003, 11:43 PM
also on average how many races per year were there when darrell waltrip ( leader in wins for modern day raceing) raced??
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Less than there are now Smack, less than there are now.
 
LOL. I love the "magic car" reference and that Harvick has less of a car that Johnson. LOL. That is Earnhardts old car and it is just as good as any Hendrick car. Or you could say that Robbie Gordon is in Earnhardts old car...take your pick. Give the driver some credit.....geez.
 
I wasn't bashing Johnson and I do give the drivers credit.I should have said the magic 'team combination,chemistry or something'.Whatever,Johnson has it.

And Harvick is a flash in the pan?That is your term 66,glad you put it so plainly! :)


[And,yes,I caught the sarcasm in your remark,please notice the lack of it in mine. :p ]
 
I think Jeffy boy will break top 3. I don't count Tony Stewart out for the top 5. I think Matt Kensth might have a shot for top 5 also.
 
Originally posted by 66mustang@Mar 4 2003, 01:12 AM
Nah, Harvicks a flash in the pan buddy. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
Man, I'm glad you finally figured out what the rest of us have known all along! :p

As to the topic at hand, Poo's a pretty good bet to break the top 5. Then again, so was Bill Elliott at one point in time. Poo's about the only driver I see with a real good shot. Newman has a shot if everything goes just right for an entire career...not likely, but it happened for the guys already on the list, so it's a possibility.
 
Well honestly I think the people who have a shot at getting inside the top 3 would be Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, & Kurt Busch. Matt Kenseth maybe into the top 5 but I remember back in the mid 80's when I was saying that DW was going to get past Pearson. So it all depends on how many years they all drive I guess.
 
That helps Smack..thanks! :)

Opens up a whole new can of worms too.Really looks good for Gordon based on those stats.The problem is,as mentioned,the 'slump factor'.For example,if DW would have retired the day after he won his last race...his record would be almost unbeatable.Instead,of course,he hung around about 2oo or so races past his peak!And,as it finally dawned on me as I was posting,the numbers are based on CONTINUED peak efficiency.Gordon won 61 races in 332 starts but the slump factor could kick in and he could run 200 more races and not win!Not that I think that will happen.But anything is possible in this sport!

I guess a better stat might be:how many starts had each driver had when they reached their last victory?

Just more fun with numbers! :lol:
 
David Pearson seems to have the numbers to beat, if you compare starts and wins together.

I dont see jeff getting 44 more wins in 200 more races.
 
Personally, I think jeff will get more wins then Dw and allison when all is said and done. As far as pearson and richard are concerned I don't see anyone touching them.

But like 97 has continued to point out, you never know. Alot of other factors to add in.
 
I think it is possible for someone to get over 100 wins but if anyone catchs "The King" I will be exstremly surprised. I think only one or two people would bump into the top 5. Gordon would be on(I hate to say it) I have no idea who another might be.
 
another thing to take into consideration is the number of drivers with a chance to win now compared to then. How many people raced in Winston Cup then that you never heard of or didn't really have a chance to win because the lack of a worthy ride. These days with the parity of the cars and the formation of the super teams- RYR, DEI, ROUSH, RCR, HENDRICKS and GANASSI as weel as others, it gives more drivers the opportunity to win lowering a single drivers chances at a race win. You have 15 cars fast enough to win a race these days compared to 5 cars back then.
 
I am one of the biggest Richard Petty fans around, but I will say that the equipment he brought to the track was far superior to what most teams could compete with at that time. Jeff has good equipment, but I really don't think it is that much better (if at all) than what guys like Dale Jr and his team, Rusty Wallace, any of the Roush guys, Tony Stewart and Bobby Labonte, just about any of the top teams now have.
 
And look at it like this folks.

Bobby Allison--unlike Earnhardt or Gordon--won races over a 25 year period in EVERY brand of car Nascar allowed with about a dozen different crew chiefs and several different teams and car owners.That says a lot when you think about it.
 
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