Okay, finally got all these data points for every points race this year. Above is every team that raced every race, sorted by average finish. I included the part time drivers in the results, but didn't plot them out here. Here are some thoughts on each team as well as any context that seems important.
Hendrick: This is an insanely dominant year by an admittedly normally dominant team. If they can finish this strong, which I'm betting against, it might be the greatest team performance in recent memory, though since I haven't been plotting this in the past, who knows for sure. It's certainly the best ever Hendrick season, with a strong chance to send all 4 cars. Though as with last year, we know who the odd man out is. Only Bowman, with an average finish of 18.3, drags the average finish down (it's 10.56 for Larson, Byron, Elliott). What really surprised me is that Hendrick is finishing better than they start, likely due to just 3 DNFs for the whole team this year.
Gibbs: With an extra 5 DNFs, it's amazing that Gibbs is only 3 spots behind, especially since, like Hendrick, one of their drivers is notably behind the rest. In Gibbs' case though, it's Gibbs, and he's worse (though that makes sense with him being younger). The team averages a 13.83 without him and his 20.58 average finish. As with Bowman, though, Gibbs' qualifying is much closer to his teammates than his finishes, reinforcing the perception that qualifying is more about equipment, and finishing more about skill.
Penske: Only one team has a worse difference from qualifying to finish, and we'll get there later. Penske has had 7 DNFs, plus one post-race penalty, costing them as many total performances as Gibbs, despite only having three drivers. Their three drivers are looking very similar at the end of the race, with all of them averaging between 16th and 18th. I think this confirms earlier discussion that Cindric doesn't appear to be on the hot seat. If you are keeping up with Logano and Blaney, it's a risk to replace you.
Hyak: I accidentally capitalized this in the chart above, but this is Ricky Stenhouse's new team. And if you need any argument that Ricky's playoff contention run seems unsustainable, look at how he's outperformed his starting position. Somehow he's managed to avoid getting collected in wrecks, and has finished every race. That's...not very on-brand for him.
RCR: Lemme get some bias out of the way - I don't like this team, and I'm not thrilled to see them ahead of multiple teams I kinda like. What's staggering is that both full-time drivers are averaging a finish in the 18s, with the gap from qualifying all from Busch, who qualifies almost 5 spots better than Austin Dillon. The "good" news for me is that RCR's two full-timers have just 2 DNF's between them, which is about half the average rate (So far, drivers have a 16.6% chance of DNF/penalty).
23XI: Real quick - which 23XI driver has the best average finish this year? The answer is Corey Heim. Did that hurt a little? Admittedly, though, this team is doing a lot better than the chart makes it out. Reddick and Wallace combine for an average finish of 16.6, which is relatively close to their 2024 numbers, even if worse. The addition of Herbst has brought down the average a lot, averaging just slightly better than 25th.
FRM: If I'm gonna say that 23XI isn't as bad as it looks, then FRM should be scared. Gilliland has somehow finished every race, and it's just slightly worse than Stenhouse. Gragson and Smith have three between them, with an average performance that seems about right.
Legacy: If I'm gonna say that 23XI isn't as bad as it looks, then Legacy should also be scared. Jones and JHN have just one DNF between them, 1/4th as many as the league average. To average 20th even with absurd luck bodes very poorly for the future, and I'd have to predict a drop in later updates.
RFK: Now THIS is my team (Keselowski is my favorite driver), so I guess what I'm saying is it's been a rough year. 25% of all RFK starts end in DNF or penalty, and that's not even counting Buescher's current penalty in appeal. I'm torn on this, because I want to say they will improve, and in terms of performance, I don't think that's in doubt. However, that penalty application would knock them down below even Kaulig. The only good news is that Preece, in his RFK debut, is looking pretty solid. He's currently on pace to match his SHR performance from last season even after eating that penalty, so expect improvement from him. And now that Preece is settled, expect Keselowski to improve considerably. The veteran had an average qualifying position of 25th, and average finish of 27th, so it's a pretty low bar to clear.
Spire: Haley was SO good last year given the equipment he was in, and Spire seemed to be on the way up, so I have to admit I had higher hopes for him. What really surprises me about this team is how differenty all three drivers qualify. McDowell has started 14th on average, with Haley closer to 23rd and Hocevar soundly in the middle. However, the three look a lot more comparable in finishing position, where they all hover within a point of the team average.
Trackhouse: Remember when this team had a future? It's not completely gone, as Ross Chastain still looks like a playoff contender, but SVG and Suarez need a win to have a chance. Personally, I think they ****** up letting Smith walk for SVG, and I bet they make it even worse and let Suarez walk for Zilisch next year...though that one I kinda understand. Chastain is averaging a top 15 finish, not good enough on it's own, but certainly still in the fight. Suarez is sitting 6 spots back from that, and SVG another 6 back from Suarez.
Wood: Remember a LONG time ago when I said that only one team had a worse difference from qualifying to finish? Well, somehow, it's Berry. Despite notching a win, Berry has also seen as many accidents as all of FRM. It's been amazing to see just how competitive this car can be without Harrison Burton. But odds are it gets even better.
Kaulig: Allmendinger and Dillon look a lot like Busch and Dillon, with the obviously more skilled driver qualifying much better, but finishes looking about the same. For better or worse, this is about where I expect them.
Haas and RWR: What are you gonna do, make your kids succeed somewhere else on their own? Someone's gotta finish in the back.
