Can one of the 2014 rookies win next year?

WhiningSmoke

WhiningSmoke

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Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson are going to be the two ROTY candidates next season. Dillon's been all but confirmed, and Larson has been confirmed. There's also a possibility of Justin Allgaier being in the 51 car full time next season. Can one of these rookies win a race? How about make the Chase?

I see Dillon being on the Chase bubble and definitely winning a race.

I see Larson wrecking like hell and getting a bunch of top 5s but not winning a race.

I see Allgaier doing neither.

Your thoughts?
 
SlicedBread22 said:
I think Larson will win before Dillon.. but I'm not sure either of those wins will come in 2014.
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I think Dillon's a smarter driver than Larson. Plus, he's actually ready for Cup with no debate. He'll adapt much quicker while Larson wrecks.
 
WhiningSmoke said:
I think Dillon's a smarter driver than Larson. Plus, he's actually ready for Cup with no debate. He'll adapt much quicker while Larson wrecks.
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I think Dillon will be slow.. like Stenhouse. Larson, I think will be reckless and probably wreck a lot but it will be because he's driving hard. I think that will get him a win before Dillon but Dillon will most likely be ahead of him in points by knocking off a bunch of top 20's.. I don't think the chances of either of them winning next season is very high. Austin is looking to win his first NNS championship.. Stenhouse won 2 in a row and only has 1 top 10 this season so far.
 
You got it backwards I'm afraid.

If you're approaching this like a Jimmie Johnson case you'd probably be right but lets face it, no.

Dillon hasn't shown he's ready for cup, how do we know this exactly? If anything, both of these guys are being rushed into the Cup level.

Of the two, Larson has the best chance at doing better. Neither will win and definitely not even be close to making no chase.

Just look at it this way..

Larson is doing far better in less than desireable equipment than Dillon who is in top NW equipment. The way I see it, Larson would have had at the very least two wins by now if not for the Cup guys, can you say that about Dillon?

Larson has just been in NASCAR 1 year while the other has been around since 2008 so obviously Dillon should have the advantage experience wise but even with all that. Larson has proven himself in the NW by running consistently good in so-so equipment.

Just wait till get gets a solid ride.

EDIT:

Let me clarify what I meant when I said Larson has done better in lesser equipment.

Dillon hasn't had a bad bad equipment to start. Put him in equal equipment, preferly bad one and see how he does.

Larson has done so and done well in it.
 
I don't think this is going to look like Newman/Johnson in 2002. The days of drivers winning a bunch of races in their rookie season have been over for a while. It'd be impressive if either driver got a win because some of the greatest of all time are out there right now.
 
reck said:
Technically any future participant should be able to win a race. :D
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True.

AndyMarquisLive said:
I don't think this is going to look like Newman/Johnson in 2002. The days of drivers winning a bunch of races in their rookie season have been over for a while. It'd be impressive if either driver got a win because some of the greatest of all time are out there right now.
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Good points.
 
They can, but if I had to put money on it I'd say neither will win a race next year. I do expect both to grab at least one Top 5.
 
Larson will probably win first providing the cars improve some. IMO
I dont expect much from Dillon ................ I could be wrong
 
reck said:
You got it backwards I'm afraid.

If you're approaching this like a Jimmie Johnson case you'd probably be right but lets face it, no.

Dillon hasn't shown he's ready for cup, how do we know this exactly? If anything, both of these guys are being rushed into the Cup level.

Of the two, Larson has the best chance at doing better. Neither will win and definitely not even be close to making no chase.

Just look at it this way..

Larson is doing far better in less than desireable equipment than Dillon who is in top NW equipment. The way I see it, Larson would have had at the very least two wins by now if not for the Cup guys, can you say that about Dillon?

Larson has just been in NASCAR 1 year while the other has been around since 2008 so obviously Dillon should have the advantage experience wise but even with all that. Larson has proven himself in the NW by running consistently good in so-so equipment.

Just wait till get gets a solid ride.

EDIT:

Let me clarify what I meant when I said Larson has done better in lesser equipment.

Dillon hasn't had a bad bad equipment to start. Put him in equal equipment, preferly bad one and see how he does.

Larson has done so and done well in it.
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TSM equipment is better than that of JR Motorsports in the Nationwide Series. Dillon's competed for a championship now two seasons in a row. Larson is in the lower half of the top 10.

Larson would actually have three wins without the Cup regulars. He finished 4th at Charlotte behind Busch, Kahne, and Logano. However, Dillon would have two wins and he wouldn't have all the DNFs that Larson does.

Dillon has gotten in the Cup car and shown promise. Stenhouse never did that in his limited runs. He finished third in his Daytona 500 duel, and ran in the top 5 at Michigan earlier in the year. He drives like Kevin Harvick. That's why I believe he'll get a win in his rookie season.
 
Larson will be inconsistent and get 3 top 5s, but 6 DNFs. No wins though.

Dillon will be more consistent and have a season similar to Ricky this season.

Allgier will have a similar season to Dillon, however he will also score a top 10 on at least one road course. But he will have a lower average finish.
 
Captain Coyfish said:
Larson will be inconsistent and get 3 top 5s, but 6 DNFs. No wins though.

Dillon will be more consistent and have a season similar to Ricky this season.

Allgier will have a similar season to Dillon, however he will also score a top 10 on at least one road course. But he will have a lower average finish.
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I don't see Dillon having a season similar to Stenhouse. Stenhouse has had an awful season, because he overdrives the hell out of the car. Dillon's a smart driver. I can see him having perhaps a Kevin Harvick-esque rookie season. Stenhouse had more of a Kurt Busch-esque rookie season.
 
WhiningSmoke said:
I don't see Dillon having a season similar to Stenhouse. Stenhouse has had an awful season, because he overdrives the hell out of the car. Dillon's a smart driver. I can see him having perhaps a Kevin Harvick-esque rookie season. Stenhouse had more of a Kurt Busch-esque rookie season.
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Ehh, I wouldnt say that. I would say Sten has a a middle of the pack season.

Remember in the starts he has had, Dillon has sucked.
 
Captain Coyfish said:
Ehh, I wouldnt say that. I would say Sten has a a middle of the pack season.

Remember in the starts he has had, Dillon has sucked.
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Stenhouse is getting better, and is so far looking like the man to beat this weekend at Kansas. And remember, when a rookie makes limited starts, they're just there to learn. Not to actually go for the win. Dillon ran in the top 5 for a while at the first Michigan race. He got there on pit strategy, but he hung on. And the only really bad race he's had is Indy. Other than that he's been 11th-20th in his limited schedule while driving for RCR. And he finished third in his Gatorade Duel. He's shown more promise than Stenhouse did in his limited starts, so I think he'll have a better rookie season than Stenhouse.
 
WhiningSmoke said:
Stenhouse is getting better, and is so far looking like the man to beat this weekend at Kansas. And remember, when a rookie makes limited starts, they're just there to learn. Not to actually go for the win. Dillon ran in the top 5 for a while at the first Michigan race. He got there on pit strategy, but he hung on. And the only really bad race he's had is Indy. Other than that he's been 11th-20th in his limited schedule while driving for RCR. And he finished third in his Gatorade Duel. He's shown more promise than Stenhouse did in his limited starts, so I think he'll have a better rookie season than Stenhouse.
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It is true that Stenhouse is improving, and I think he will get his first career top 5 today.

However, I beg to differ about Dillon. In Stenhouse's limited starts he finished between 10th and 15th, save for one wreck and one blown engine. In Dillon's limited starts, he has finished in the 20s, with a couple exceptions (Michigan being one).
 
For those of you that say pop pop bought Austin and Ty's success think about this. Austin won the Truck Championship when he was running against the best truck teams and drivers in the business. He is also ahead in the NNS points and has a good chance of winning the championship this year racing against the best NNS teams and drivers in the business and I hope he does. He was and is racing in both series against the teams and equipment of Brad K, JGR, HMS-JRM, RCR and so on. He and his brother are both very talented drivers that can wheel the hell out of a race car/truck but they both in a way are being brought on slowly and are looking at the big picture. Will Austin win next year, I dont know, maybe, will Larson win next year, I dont know but I dont think so mainly because he is like a lot of other young ones that came, over agressively, into Cup thinking they were going to blow right to the top but burned out instead. Austin MAY be my next favorite driver if he has what it takes to make it in the long run.
 
Not to take anything away from any of the other young guys but Dillon is a smart, patient driver. I think yesterday's race was a good example of that. He's now leading the points because of using his head instead of his foot & bumper.
 
Think about a rookie beating Jimmie Johnson ,Matt Kenseth , Kyle Busch , Kurt Busch , Tony Stewart , Kevin Harvick , Biffle , Edwards , Gordon , etc . all on the same day . Not one of them good enough to beat a rookie . I don't see it .
 
ted@economy said:
Think about a rookie beating Jimmie Johnson ,Matt Kenseth , Kyle Busch , Kurt Busch , Tony Stewart , Kevin Harvick , Biffle , Edwards , Gordon , etc . all on the same day . Not one of them good enough to beat a rookie . I don't see it .
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Fuel mileage and plate tracks.
 
ted@economy said:
Think about a rookie beating Jimmie Johnson ,Matt Kenseth , Kyle Busch , Kurt Busch , Tony Stewart , Kevin Harvick , Biffle , Edwards , Gordon , etc . all on the same day . Not one of them good enough to beat a rookie . I don't see it .
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Denny Hamlin did it twice in 2006.
 
Logano did it by staying out when rain came. Kez and Bayne were both at destructor plate tracks. Montoya was on a road course, the only place he's good.
 
Predictions...

1) Larson wrecks a bunch of cars cup cars.

2) Dillon needs a year in cup to get competitive.

Dillon wins first, but not until 2015.
 
Captain Coyfish said:
...Kez and Bayne were both at destructor plate tracks. Montoya was on a road course, the only place he's good.
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So if you're good at a road course and win, it wasn't earned?

Also anyone that wins at Daytona or Dega didn't earn it either?

o_O
 
gordonite said:
So if you're good at a road course and win, it wasn't earned?

Also anyone that wins at Daytona or Dega didn't earn it either?

o_O
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Geez, stop using logic, will ya?

Honestly, I think a driver needs 2 or 3 performance wins to establish themselves as real drivers. And not over a 12 year period like MW.
 
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