T
TonyB
Guest
A quick look at the championship chases in NASCAR's top 3 series.
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WINSTON CUP
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Matt Kenseth (Leader)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (-228)
Jimmie Johnson (-241)
Jeff Gordon (-300)
Ryan Newman (-329)
Kevin Harvick (-351)
Who's Out?
Kenseth has mathematically eliminated everyone from 7th place (Tony Stewart) down in the standings from contention for the championship. 1 driver was eliminated at Phoenix - Tony Stewart.
Should Kenseth start every race (and finish last) then everyone from 5th place (Ryan Newman) down is eliminated from championship contention. 2 drivers were eliminated at Phoenix - Ryan Newman and Kevin Harvick.
Next Up
Sunday 11/9 Pop Secret Microwave Popcorn 400
How the contenders have fared at Rockingham
Matt Kenseth has an average finish of 18.38 with 1 win in 8 races.
Dale Earnhardt Jr has an average finish of 29.14 with no top 10 finishes in 7 races.
Jimmie Johnson has an average finish of 24.33 with 1 top 10 finishes in 3 races.
Jeff Gordon has an average finish of 14.90 with 1 win in 21 races.
Ryan Newman has an average finish of 17.00 with no top 10 finishes in 3 races.
Kevin Harvick has an average finish of 22.20 with no top 10 finishes in 5 races.
Remaining Races - Best Among The Contenders At The Track
11/16 - Homestead - Ryan Newman 6.00 average finish.
Championship Outlook
Matt Kenseth's magic number is now 30th place. If Kenseth finishes 30th place or better in the final two races, he clinches the championship.
Should Matt Kenseth finish 7th place or higher at Rockingham he clinches the championship.
Should Matt Kenseth finish 18th place or higher and start the race at Homestead he clinches the championship.
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BUSCH SERIES
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Scott Riggs (Leader)
Ron Hornaday (-17)
Brian Vickers (-21)
David Green (-22)
Jason Keller (-60)
Bobby Hamilton Jr (-125)
Who's Out?
Green has mathematically eliminated everyone from 7th place (Scott Wimmer) down in the standings from contention for the championship. 3 drivers were eliminated at Phoenix - Scott Wimmer, Johnny Sauter, and Kasey Kahne.
Next Up
Saturday 11/8 - Target House 200
How the contenders have fared at Phoenix
Scott Riggs has an average finish of 13.00 with 1 top 5 finish in 3 races.
Ron Hornaday has an average finish of 14.40 with 1 top 5 finish in 5 races.
Brian Vickers has an average finish of 19.75 with 1 top 10 finish in 4 races.
David Green has an average finish of 16.17 with 9 top 10 finishes in 18 races.
Jason Keller has an average finish of 17.43 with 11 top 10 finishes in 21 races.
Bobby Hamilton Jr has an average finish of 23.30 with 1 top 5 finish in 10 races.
Remaining Races - Best Among The Contenders At The Track
11/15 - Homestead - Bobby Hamilton Jr - 15.50.
Championship Outlook
The championship lead changed hands once again at Phoenix. Scott Riggs now leads the points. Bobby Hamilton Jr has also pulled himself into vague contention. Hamilton's biggest problem isn't the 125 points between him and the lead, it's the fact that 5 drivers are in front of him. It is unlikely that he can pass all 5.
No one will win the championship at Rockingham, but a poor finish by any of the 6 contenders will certainly eliminate them from contention.
Bonus points are going to be very important and could easily be the difference in the championship.
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CRAFTSMAN TRUCK
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Brendan Gaughan (Leader)
Ted Musgrave (-26)
Travis Kvapil (-34)
Dennis Setzer (-39)
Who's Out?
Gaughan has mathematically eliminated everyone from 5th place (Jon Wood) down in the standings from contention for the championship. 3 drivers were eliminated at Phoenix - Jon Wood, Bobby Hamilton, and Rick Crawford.
Next Up
Friday 11/14 - Ford 200
How the contenders have fared at Homestead
Brendan Gaughan finished 11th in his only Homestead race.
Ted Musgrave has finished 1st and 2nd in his 2 Homestead races.
Travis Kvapil has finished 15th and 2nd in his 2 Homestead races.
Dennis Setzer has finished 6th, 17th, and 32nd in his 3 Homestead races.
Remaining Races - Best Among The Contenders At The Track
11/14 - Homestead - Ted Musgrave 1.50 average finish
Championship Outlook
Breandan Gaughan will clinch the championship by finishing 5th place or higher. This is without leading any laps. If he finishes 6th and leads a lap he will also clinch the championship. He can also clinch be finishing in 7th place and leading the most laps. As long as Gaughan is within 4 places of Musgarave, 5 places of Kvapil, and 6 places of Setzer he wins the championship.
Ted Musgrave must finish at least 5 places in front of Brendan Gaughan AND finish within 1 place of Kvapil and within 2 places of Setzer to win the championship. These scenarios don't include bonus points for leading a lap and leading the most points.
Travis Kvapil must finish at least 6 places in front of Gaughan and 2 places in front of Musgrave and 1 position in front of Setzer to win the championship. A note here on the Setzer situation. Since Kvapil is 5 points in front of Setzer, if they are both running in the top 10, he will have to finish in front of Setzer since the spread is 5 points between positions in the top 10. If they are both running outside of the top 10, he can finish 1 place behind Setzer, but it is doubtful that they could both be running outside the top 10 and still be 6 places in front of Gaughan and 2 places in front of Musgrave.These scenarios don't include bonus points for leading a lap and leading the most points.
Dennis Setzer has to finish at least 7 place in front of Gaughan, 3 places in front of Musgrave, and 1 place in front of Kvapil. If Stezer and Kvapil wind up tied in the points, Setzer wins the tie-breaker by virtue of his 3 wins versus Kvapil's 1 win.
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WINSTON CUP
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Matt Kenseth (Leader)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (-228)
Jimmie Johnson (-241)
Jeff Gordon (-300)
Ryan Newman (-329)
Kevin Harvick (-351)
Who's Out?
Kenseth has mathematically eliminated everyone from 7th place (Tony Stewart) down in the standings from contention for the championship. 1 driver was eliminated at Phoenix - Tony Stewart.
Should Kenseth start every race (and finish last) then everyone from 5th place (Ryan Newman) down is eliminated from championship contention. 2 drivers were eliminated at Phoenix - Ryan Newman and Kevin Harvick.
Next Up
Sunday 11/9 Pop Secret Microwave Popcorn 400
How the contenders have fared at Rockingham
Matt Kenseth has an average finish of 18.38 with 1 win in 8 races.
Dale Earnhardt Jr has an average finish of 29.14 with no top 10 finishes in 7 races.
Jimmie Johnson has an average finish of 24.33 with 1 top 10 finishes in 3 races.
Jeff Gordon has an average finish of 14.90 with 1 win in 21 races.
Ryan Newman has an average finish of 17.00 with no top 10 finishes in 3 races.
Kevin Harvick has an average finish of 22.20 with no top 10 finishes in 5 races.
Remaining Races - Best Among The Contenders At The Track
11/16 - Homestead - Ryan Newman 6.00 average finish.
Championship Outlook
Matt Kenseth's magic number is now 30th place. If Kenseth finishes 30th place or better in the final two races, he clinches the championship.
Should Matt Kenseth finish 7th place or higher at Rockingham he clinches the championship.
Should Matt Kenseth finish 18th place or higher and start the race at Homestead he clinches the championship.
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BUSCH SERIES
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Scott Riggs (Leader)
Ron Hornaday (-17)
Brian Vickers (-21)
David Green (-22)
Jason Keller (-60)
Bobby Hamilton Jr (-125)
Who's Out?
Green has mathematically eliminated everyone from 7th place (Scott Wimmer) down in the standings from contention for the championship. 3 drivers were eliminated at Phoenix - Scott Wimmer, Johnny Sauter, and Kasey Kahne.
Next Up
Saturday 11/8 - Target House 200
How the contenders have fared at Phoenix
Scott Riggs has an average finish of 13.00 with 1 top 5 finish in 3 races.
Ron Hornaday has an average finish of 14.40 with 1 top 5 finish in 5 races.
Brian Vickers has an average finish of 19.75 with 1 top 10 finish in 4 races.
David Green has an average finish of 16.17 with 9 top 10 finishes in 18 races.
Jason Keller has an average finish of 17.43 with 11 top 10 finishes in 21 races.
Bobby Hamilton Jr has an average finish of 23.30 with 1 top 5 finish in 10 races.
Remaining Races - Best Among The Contenders At The Track
11/15 - Homestead - Bobby Hamilton Jr - 15.50.
Championship Outlook
The championship lead changed hands once again at Phoenix. Scott Riggs now leads the points. Bobby Hamilton Jr has also pulled himself into vague contention. Hamilton's biggest problem isn't the 125 points between him and the lead, it's the fact that 5 drivers are in front of him. It is unlikely that he can pass all 5.
No one will win the championship at Rockingham, but a poor finish by any of the 6 contenders will certainly eliminate them from contention.
Bonus points are going to be very important and could easily be the difference in the championship.
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CRAFTSMAN TRUCK
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Brendan Gaughan (Leader)
Ted Musgrave (-26)
Travis Kvapil (-34)
Dennis Setzer (-39)
Who's Out?
Gaughan has mathematically eliminated everyone from 5th place (Jon Wood) down in the standings from contention for the championship. 3 drivers were eliminated at Phoenix - Jon Wood, Bobby Hamilton, and Rick Crawford.
Next Up
Friday 11/14 - Ford 200
How the contenders have fared at Homestead
Brendan Gaughan finished 11th in his only Homestead race.
Ted Musgrave has finished 1st and 2nd in his 2 Homestead races.
Travis Kvapil has finished 15th and 2nd in his 2 Homestead races.
Dennis Setzer has finished 6th, 17th, and 32nd in his 3 Homestead races.
Remaining Races - Best Among The Contenders At The Track
11/14 - Homestead - Ted Musgrave 1.50 average finish
Championship Outlook
Breandan Gaughan will clinch the championship by finishing 5th place or higher. This is without leading any laps. If he finishes 6th and leads a lap he will also clinch the championship. He can also clinch be finishing in 7th place and leading the most laps. As long as Gaughan is within 4 places of Musgarave, 5 places of Kvapil, and 6 places of Setzer he wins the championship.
Ted Musgrave must finish at least 5 places in front of Brendan Gaughan AND finish within 1 place of Kvapil and within 2 places of Setzer to win the championship. These scenarios don't include bonus points for leading a lap and leading the most points.
Travis Kvapil must finish at least 6 places in front of Gaughan and 2 places in front of Musgrave and 1 position in front of Setzer to win the championship. A note here on the Setzer situation. Since Kvapil is 5 points in front of Setzer, if they are both running in the top 10, he will have to finish in front of Setzer since the spread is 5 points between positions in the top 10. If they are both running outside of the top 10, he can finish 1 place behind Setzer, but it is doubtful that they could both be running outside the top 10 and still be 6 places in front of Gaughan and 2 places in front of Musgrave.These scenarios don't include bonus points for leading a lap and leading the most points.
Dennis Setzer has to finish at least 7 place in front of Gaughan, 3 places in front of Musgrave, and 1 place in front of Kvapil. If Stezer and Kvapil wind up tied in the points, Setzer wins the tie-breaker by virtue of his 3 wins versus Kvapil's 1 win.