Posted on Thu, Sep. 16, 2004
A Good Chase spoiled?
By JIM UTTER
ThatsRacin.com Writer
Although the lineup for the inaugural Chase for the Nextel Cup has been set, there remains a nagging question.
What about the rest of the field?
Obviously, all teams will continue to try to win races over the final 10 weeks of the schedule. And those who narrowly failed to make the Chase cutoff will be trying to finish 11th – to become the best of the rest, so to speak.
The 11th place finisher will earn a trip to the annual awards banquet to be recognized on stage with the top-10 in points. He will also receive a $250,000 bonus.
But more than the money and the recognition, there remain several drivers and circumstances that could come into play the remainder of the season and try to put a damper on the Chase.
Here's a look at five possible "spoilers" to this season's inaugural NASCAR playoff.
A dominant driver not in the top-10
This scenario – having a driver who had not won previously but came on strong at the end of the season – has occurred many times in the Cup series' past, but would provide a wild distraction to the Chase format.
Since all drivers continue to compete in every race, there is no guarantee a driver in the top-10 will win any of the final 10 races, although the odds of that happening are slim.
Still, there remains the possibility a driver who didn't make the cut, could come alive in the final 10 with multiple victories.
The most likely candidate appears to be rookie Kasey Kahne, who finished 12th in points after 26 races, but just 28 points out of the top-10.
Kahne has five second-place finishes this season, his most recent one coming in the Sept. 5 race at California Speedway.
"There is still a lot for us to accomplish," Kahne said. "We're going to try to win races and we still can win the rookie of the year title. We have to remind ourselves there is still a lot left of the season."
Other candidates who could factor into a similar scenario include Kevin Harvick, who spent much of the season locked in the top-10; Jamie McMurray, who missed the top-10 cut by 15 points; and Dale Jarrett, who has finished third or better in three of his past nine races.
None of the three have won races this season, however.
The unlikely champion
The new championship format was created, of course, to increase excitement. But there can always be too much of something.
In this case, what if a driver who barely squeaked in the top-10 such as Jeremy Mayfield, who would trail the leader by more than 400 points under the current system, end up the champion after the final 10 races?
At one point this season, Jimmie Johnson had a nearly 250-point lead over his nearest rival. He heads into the final 10 races trailing leader Jeff Gordon by five points and having failed to finish three of his past six races.
Mayfield, by contrast, was 16th in points following the May race at Richmond and enters the final 10 trailing Gordon by just 40 points. He has finished 11th or higher in seven of his past nine races.
"The 45 points (from first to 10th) is nothing," Gordon said. "I don't think that's enough. I think we're not rewarding the guys that have been up front."
The X factor
One of the most frequent criticisms of the new Chase format is the possible effect the other 33 drivers can have on the outcome of races, and in turn, the championship.
For instance, in last Saturday's race at Richmond, Va., a fight for position between Jimmy Spencer and Casey Mears – both not championship contenders – resulted in a 10-car wreck that took out then-points leader Johnson.
Then later in the race, Spencer was involved in another wreck, this time with Jarrett, which ended any hopes he had of making the top-10 cutoff.
"This is why I'm not a big fan of the points system," Johnson said. "We've put too much hard work and effort into this to have something stupid like that happen."
What if?
This scenario is a given. Sometime soon after the 2004 season has ended, someone will compute what the 2004 points standings would have been under the old format.
If the champion is different from who wins under the new system – watch out! The comparisons and criticisms will be endless.
Already, fans are trading barbs over whether championships won under the new format equal championships under the old one.
And if someone utilizing the new one gets close – or Heaven forbid passes – the NASCAR-record seven Cup titles won by Richard Petty and the late Dale Earnhardt, all bets are off.
A driver injury
As outlandish and this scenario may appear, it has actually occurred recently.
In 2002, Sterling Marlin was fifth in points with seven races to go in the season when he was suddenly sidelined by a fractured vertebra in his neck. Under the system then, since he slowly dropped in points until ending the season in 18th.
Using the points system in place now, since Marlin would have qualified for the Chase, he would finish no lower than 10th, regardless of how many of the final 10 races he missed.
A Good Chase spoiled?
By JIM UTTER
ThatsRacin.com Writer
Although the lineup for the inaugural Chase for the Nextel Cup has been set, there remains a nagging question.
What about the rest of the field?
Obviously, all teams will continue to try to win races over the final 10 weeks of the schedule. And those who narrowly failed to make the Chase cutoff will be trying to finish 11th – to become the best of the rest, so to speak.
The 11th place finisher will earn a trip to the annual awards banquet to be recognized on stage with the top-10 in points. He will also receive a $250,000 bonus.
But more than the money and the recognition, there remain several drivers and circumstances that could come into play the remainder of the season and try to put a damper on the Chase.
Here's a look at five possible "spoilers" to this season's inaugural NASCAR playoff.
A dominant driver not in the top-10
This scenario – having a driver who had not won previously but came on strong at the end of the season – has occurred many times in the Cup series' past, but would provide a wild distraction to the Chase format.
Since all drivers continue to compete in every race, there is no guarantee a driver in the top-10 will win any of the final 10 races, although the odds of that happening are slim.
Still, there remains the possibility a driver who didn't make the cut, could come alive in the final 10 with multiple victories.
The most likely candidate appears to be rookie Kasey Kahne, who finished 12th in points after 26 races, but just 28 points out of the top-10.
Kahne has five second-place finishes this season, his most recent one coming in the Sept. 5 race at California Speedway.
"There is still a lot for us to accomplish," Kahne said. "We're going to try to win races and we still can win the rookie of the year title. We have to remind ourselves there is still a lot left of the season."
Other candidates who could factor into a similar scenario include Kevin Harvick, who spent much of the season locked in the top-10; Jamie McMurray, who missed the top-10 cut by 15 points; and Dale Jarrett, who has finished third or better in three of his past nine races.
None of the three have won races this season, however.
The unlikely champion
The new championship format was created, of course, to increase excitement. But there can always be too much of something.
In this case, what if a driver who barely squeaked in the top-10 such as Jeremy Mayfield, who would trail the leader by more than 400 points under the current system, end up the champion after the final 10 races?
At one point this season, Jimmie Johnson had a nearly 250-point lead over his nearest rival. He heads into the final 10 races trailing leader Jeff Gordon by five points and having failed to finish three of his past six races.
Mayfield, by contrast, was 16th in points following the May race at Richmond and enters the final 10 trailing Gordon by just 40 points. He has finished 11th or higher in seven of his past nine races.
"The 45 points (from first to 10th) is nothing," Gordon said. "I don't think that's enough. I think we're not rewarding the guys that have been up front."
The X factor
One of the most frequent criticisms of the new Chase format is the possible effect the other 33 drivers can have on the outcome of races, and in turn, the championship.
For instance, in last Saturday's race at Richmond, Va., a fight for position between Jimmy Spencer and Casey Mears – both not championship contenders – resulted in a 10-car wreck that took out then-points leader Johnson.
Then later in the race, Spencer was involved in another wreck, this time with Jarrett, which ended any hopes he had of making the top-10 cutoff.
"This is why I'm not a big fan of the points system," Johnson said. "We've put too much hard work and effort into this to have something stupid like that happen."
What if?
This scenario is a given. Sometime soon after the 2004 season has ended, someone will compute what the 2004 points standings would have been under the old format.
If the champion is different from who wins under the new system – watch out! The comparisons and criticisms will be endless.
Already, fans are trading barbs over whether championships won under the new format equal championships under the old one.
And if someone utilizing the new one gets close – or Heaven forbid passes – the NASCAR-record seven Cup titles won by Richard Petty and the late Dale Earnhardt, all bets are off.
A driver injury
As outlandish and this scenario may appear, it has actually occurred recently.
In 2002, Sterling Marlin was fifth in points with seven races to go in the season when he was suddenly sidelined by a fractured vertebra in his neck. Under the system then, since he slowly dropped in points until ending the season in 18th.
Using the points system in place now, since Marlin would have qualified for the Chase, he would finish no lower than 10th, regardless of how many of the final 10 races he missed.
