Don't Count Danica Out From Winning At Sonoma Or Watkins Glen

F

FearThe29

Guest
some people keep saying the plate races are her only chance to win but they forget she run very good on the road racers in the nwide series so don't be shock if she pulls out a win on one of the 2 road races in the future.
 
I don't think this is so far fetched. If she qualifies well enough for one of those races, she could definitely come away with at least a Top 10. Is she likely to win? Probably not, but it's not ENTIRELY out of the question.
 
There is so much talent among the Cup regulars on road courses that it's hard to see much of an advantage swinging her way.
 
I could see a top 15 out of her on a road course.. Like others have said though It's pretty tough competition in the cup series road course racing.. Everyone has stepped their game up in recent years.
 
FLRacingFan said:
This. There's a huge disparity in road course skill between Nationwide regulars and Cup regulars.
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That's not really true -- in NW there are many road ringers getting a good ride (Papis for RCR, Fellows for JRM, Johnson for RFR, etc). That said, Danica isnt good enoughin NW or cup for a win. But a top 15 or maybe even 15 is reasonable.
 
Captain Coyfish said:
That's not really true -- in NW there are many road ringers getting a good ride (Papis for RCR, Fellows for JRM, Johnson for RFR, etc). That said, Danica isnt good enoughin NW or cup for a win. But a top 15 or maybe even 15 is reasonable.
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There are a few but they only compete that well at the Nationwide level. Fellows has only one Top 10 in his last eleven Cup road races whereas he finished in the Top 5 in all three Nationwide road races last year. The road races used to be dominated by guys like Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart in Cup. There's a lot more depth at Watkins Glen and Sonoma now.

That said, I can see Danica getting a Top 10 or Top 15 at one of those two.
 
FLRacingFan said:
There are a few but they only compete that well at the Nationwide level. Fellows has only one Top 10 in his last eleven Cup road races whereas he finished in the Top 5 in all three Nationwide road races last year. The road races used to be dominated by guys like Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart in Cup. There's a lot more depth at Watkins Glen and Sonoma now.

That said, I can see Danica getting a Top 10 or Top 15 at one of those two.
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Remember, these NW road ringers often get ****** equitment when they race in cup. Think about Boris Said -- last year he was with JGR at Watkins Glen in NW, but he was with FLM in Cup. A huge contrast...
 
Captain Coyfish said:
Remember, these NW road ringers often get ****** equitment when they race in cup. Think about Boris Said -- last year he was with JGR at Watkins Glen in NW, but he was with FLM in Cup. A huge contrast...
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OK, well look at a guy like Carl Edwards. Four Top 5s in 16 Cup starts on road courses, never won a race. Three wins on road courses in Nationwide, one each at Road America/Montreal/Watkins Glen. And that's running Roush equipment in both series.
 
FLRacingFan said:
OK, well look at a guy like Carl Edwards. Four Top 5s in 16 Cup starts on road courses, never won a race. Three wins on road courses in Nationwide, one each at Road America/Montreal/Watkins Glen. And that's running Roush equipment in both series.
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But Carl aint a road ringer...
 
Captain Coyfish said:
But Carl aint a road ringer...
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Alot of the top tier Cup drivers have evolved their road course game in the past decade or so... That's where this gap comes from IMO.. I've been waiting years to watch JG dominate road course races again..

Fact is the Cup regulars have caught up and now putting a road course ringer in a good cup ride doesn't pay the dividends it used to.
 
DUN24 said:
Alot of the top tier Cup drivers have evolved their road course game in the past decade or so... That's where this gap comes from IMO.. I've been waiting years to watch JG dominate road course races again..

Fact is the Cup regulars have caught up and now putting a road course ringer in a good cup ride doesn't pay the dividends it used to.
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Its true -- even JJ, who previously utterly sucked on road courses even has a win (though to be fair if it wasnt for Ambrose being dumb he only would have gotton second). However, road ringers still get the job done. Remember that Scott Speed, who has pitiful equitment and normally S&Ps got to run the full race at Watkins last year and got a top 20. And he isnt even THAT good on road courses...
 
I expect Danica to do better than usual on the road courses; maybe even finish on the lead lap. I would be surprised if she got a top 10, though.

If she does finish well, I can imagine we'll see posts like this: "Take that, haters! This proves that Danica is a good driver and that she belongs in Cup! See?"
 
PeopleAreStrange said:
I expect Danica to do better than usual on the road courses; maybe even finish on the lead lap. I would be surprised if she got a top 10, though.

If she does finish well, I can imagine we'll see posts like this: "Take that, haters! This proves that Danica is a good driver and that she belongs in Cup! See?"
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No that's not what will happen the haters will say she just got lucky, she cheated, or someone the leader let her by for the win. They will never admit they she won on talent.
 
Captain Coyfish said:
Remember that Scott Speed, who has pitiful equitment and normally S&Ps got to run the full race at Watkins last year and got a top 20. And he isnt even THAT good on road courses...
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Yeah, why would the last American to race in Formula One be any good at road courses.
 
This is a damn good racing series , rookies don't normally do well in it . To think that any rookie is going to beat Jimmy , Brad , Matt, Carl , Kasey , and the rest , is really a stretch . She'll get some top twentys , maybe a top ten ,and finish the year around twenty-fifth , maybe . Next year , possibly move up to 15th (if her car owner can put some better cars under his team.). She's a good driver , but it's going to be a while before she can run with Montoya , Ambrose , McMurray, Burton , and the other mid packers.
 
There is no chance Danica can win a road course race. None. Zero. The only chance she has is at a plate race. Thats it. Because you need a certain amount of luck and a good car at a plate track and not skill. Danica is a non factor and a 25th place car at best on average.

Let me edit this and say the only possibility for a win could hinge on gas mileage. She cant and wont out run or out drive anybody.
 
When considering the list of drivers who have never won at a road course, it'd be an extremely tall order to expect Patrick to do so - especially in her first year.

But, things don't always work out on the track as they do on paper. I'm reminded that at the start of 2012, many people - myself included - never thought that Keselowski would be the champ come Homestead.

Compare the odds of Edwards going winless (with only 3 top 5's) last year with Patrick winning a race this year.
 
ElliottFan said:
There is no chance Danica can win a road course race. None. Zero. The only chance she has is at a plate race. Thats it. Because you need a certain amount of luck and a good car at a plate track and not skill. Danica is a non factor and a 25th place car at best on average.

Let me edit this and say the only possibility for a win could hinge on gas mileage. She cant and wont out run or out drive anybody.
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glad you left yourself an out, lest we forget her indycar win. I give her odds of winning better at a plate track, odds of having the big one can wipe out some really fast cars..david regan proved that recently. Road courses are tracks I believe she can have a legitimate chance for a top ten finish in the next three or four years in Nascar, Nationwide road races would be better than her Cup chances. The press won't care which.
 
FLRacingFan said:
Plenty of active drivers won at least one race in their first full Cup season.
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This is true I am sure that many drivers did or have won in the first year, but how many haven't? I think a lot more pressure is being put on her is because she is a women breaking into the old boys club. Look what happened to Shirley moldanie (sp) I know that's spelled wrong her life was threatened that she should get out. Not many drivers or crews would even help her. I am sure once she shows that she is taking her time and not trying to be number one right away, that she will start getting respect and will start improving. Even if she only makes it as a mid pack driver takes a lot of skill to race there also. To all the haters that are saying she doesn't belong, where is she and where are you? It's easy to sit on your ass and say she is no good, but guess what,she is in a major car and you all are riding an armchair.
 
Danica is not new to pressure. She didn't go to the Indy 500 in here rookie year and run the fastest practice lap of 229.880 of the month, qualify 4th, become the first women to ever lead the Indy 500, and would have probably won the Indy 500 if she had not had to trim her fuel back when she was leading and settle for a 4th place finish. She can handle pressure.
 
Nitro with her comming to NASCAR it's a different type of pressure . Here she is trying to break into a male area Indy and other forms have already had that sex barrier broken NASCAR has had women before but not one made it. Danica is trying driving her butt off that's where the pressure is comming from trying to prove people wrong and proving to herself that she can make it
 
pistolshooter said:
Nitro with her comming to NASCAR it's a different type of pressure . Here she is trying to break into a male area Indy and other forms have already had that sex barrier broken NASCAR has had women before but not one made it. Danica is trying driving her butt off that's where the pressure is comming from trying to prove people wrong and proving to herself that she can make it
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I understand that completely and I agree with you. I think she is doing a pretty decent job of handling that kind of pressure also.
 
pistolshooter said:
Nitro with her comming to NASCAR it's a different type of pressure . Here she is trying to break into a male area Indy and other forms have already had that sex barrier broken NASCAR has had women before but not one made it. Danica is trying driving her butt off that's where the pressure is comming from trying to prove people wrong and proving to herself that she can make it
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Guthrie was better.

http://www.driveraverages.com/nascar_stats/driver.php?drv_id=414

Janet Guthrie had better numbers, less support, in cars w/o power steering, in heavy dinosours with more carbon monoxide.

In a tougher attitude and time,

http://www.trackforum.com/forums/showthread.php?76315-Richard-Petty-Women-shouldn-t-race


In her book, “Janet Guthrie A Life at Full Throttle,” that was released last year, Guthrie recounted the icy reception she received from other drivers when she came to Lowe’s for the ’76 race.“When I shook hands with Richard Petty I thought I’d get frostbite,” Guthrie wrote. “Later, he would be quoted as saying of me: ‘She’s no lady. If she was she’d be at home. There’s a lot of differences in being a lady and being a woman.”’In the three decades that have passed, Petty has grown to appreciate what Guthrie accomplished. She competed for underfunded teams at a time when NASCAR did not have the programs that are currently in place to promote women and minorities.“I’ve still not changed my mind about women racing,” he said. “The deal with her ... she came in before you had any diversity deal. She come in just as herself and done a decent job. She come in the hard way, because no one really welcomed her in.“She said, ‘I’m here, I’m going to do it,’ and she was able to get it done. You have to admire her for that.”
 
Greg said:
Guthrie was better.

http://www.driveraverages.com/nascar_stats/driver.php?drv_id=414

Janet Guthrie had better numbers, less support, in cars w/o power steering, in heavy dinosours with more carbon monoxide.

In a tougher attitude and time,

http://www.trackforum.com/forums/showthread.php?76315-Richard-Petty-Women-shouldn-t-race


In her book, “Janet Guthrie A Life at Full Throttle,” that was released last year, Guthrie recounted the icy reception she received from other drivers when she came to Lowe’s for the ’76 race.“When I shook hands with Richard Petty I thought I’d get frostbite,” Guthrie wrote. “Later, he would be quoted as saying of me: ‘She’s no lady. If she was she’d be at home. There’s a lot of differences in being a lady and being a woman.”’In the three decades that have passed, Petty has grown to appreciate what Guthrie accomplished. She competed for underfunded teams at a time when NASCAR did not have the programs that are currently in place to promote women and minorities.“I’ve still not changed my mind about women racing,” he said. “The deal with her ... she came in before you had any diversity deal. She come in just as herself and done a decent job. She come in the hard way, because no one really welcomed her in.“She said, ‘I’m here, I’m going to do it,’ and she was able to get it done. You have to admire her for that.”
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This isn't a fair comparison. Guthrie was more of a man than I am... ;)
 
So just because there's diversity things have changed that much? Don't you think that just because she is a women that she will have a tougher time than if she were a white man trying to break in? No I am not racist just trying to make a point since there are not many blacks in NASCAR compared to whites. Women in other racing levels have had it tough also I agree but Danica has an uphill battle of her own.
 
I dunno Greg, that's an apples to oranges comparison. They came up in two different eras, and of course when you compare one of the pioneers to one of today's drivers, the pioneers are almost always going to look better. 'Cause they're the pioneers, they did it first and paved the way for everyone else.

As far as Danica is concerned, I like her, and I wouldn't count her out of winning at Sonoma or Watkins Glen. She's run well on road courses in Nationwide. That said, it's one thing to not count someone out, but it's quite another to consider them a legit threat to win.

Yes, as far as equipment/team/talent goes, Danica has arguably the best overall shot that a woman has ever had to make a name for herself in NASCAR, hence why the media shoves her down our throat nonstop. (Yeah, yeah, her looks play a part in that too.) However, I think a lot of Danica's fans - and haters - would benefit from forming more realistic expectations of her. I'm speaking generally here, not specifically to anyone on this forum. Last I checked, she was still a Cup rookie, and honestly, she probably came in a few years too early. (Money/sponsorship talks, and it is what it is.)

If she has a good run/finish, that's great, but it doesn't make her the next big thing. If she has a poor run/finish, it doesn't make her a complete and utter failure. Not yet. In a few years, when she has had plenty of good or bad runs/finishes, we'll be able to make a much more fair assessment of how good or bad she is. Until then, we, her fans and haters, need to simmer down and just let the woman race.

Okay, I'm climbing down off my soapbox now. :)
 
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