Halfway to the Chase

dpkimmel2001

dpkimmel2001

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How desperate do you think these non winners are this year with the win and you're in rule?

No need to explain to me how it works but I still don't think we will see 16 winners by the end of Richmond's September race. I think all of these teams are assured a Chase spot should they get to the finish line first. Points will matter for those remaining spots.

This time last year all we would have heard about was the points battle to make the Chase. I'm glad that isn't the talk these days. This year we are hardly ever reminded who's leading the points.

I can't wait to see how this all plays out. Time is running out.
 
You know, I really don't think we have had a race that I can recall where desperation could be a factor. Fast race cars for the most part have been rewarded. My point is that you can be as desperate as you want, but if you aren't fast, you aren't winning.
 
Last week with Tony Stewart on pit strategy could be considered a desperate move. Problem is the guys who were fast at California are still fast at Dover. Fully expect Harvick, Gordon, Johnson, Logano, Keselowski and sometimes Junior to be leading the way. If not for bad luck, bad restarts and mechanical failures we could only see Harvick, Johnson, Logano and Gordon with wins this year. At this point I do not think we will see 16 different winners but desperation has to be in the air for guys like Kenseth, Stewart, Biffle, Bowyer and even Larson.

I have no doubt the number of fuel mileage races will rise as we get closer to Richmond.
 
Revman said:
You know, I really don't think we have had a race that I can recall where desperation could be a factor. Fast race cars for the most part have been rewarded. My point is that you can be as desperate as you want, but if you aren't fast, you aren't winning.
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But, they will be willing to take more chances and even become more aggressive in their on track moves. We're on the back side of these qualifying races. Desperation will come as the races left to the Chase number reduces each week.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
But, they will be willing to take more chances and even become more aggressive in their on track moves. We're on the back side of these qualifying races. Desperation will come as the races left to the Chase number reduces each week.
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I could see that - especially in the final three races leading up to the chase if several driver still need a win.
 
Kenseth probably isn't sweating it too bad. No wins but he has the points lead, and you have to go all the way down to Kyle Larson in 10th to find the next non-winner. If he can keep the points lead, he'd be in regardless of whether we get to 16 or not.
 
Kubu is 27th in points. He drops four more spots and he's out. If he don't step it up soon he'll probably start to lose it some. I think he needs to try and get top 15s and 20s if that's all his car will get and stop being so overly aggressive.
 
The door has already shut for most of them who haven't won a race yet as far as I am concerned. That is also the good part IMO, seeing who can get better and get a win in the regular season. Plenty of room left for more first time winners. Kenseth, Kahne, Newman, Vickers, Biffle, Stewart, Jamie Mac, and the crowd favorite, rookie Larson have a good chance of winning before the regular season cut off. 8 Drivers with what, 16 or so races left, that for the most part except Vickers and Larson, win at least a race a year that don't have a win yet.
 
the closer it gets the more aggressive it will get at the front for the ones without a win. the last race before chase starts, if you're not in, how far are you willing to go, and if you're in what have you got to lose going all out. i would definitely be in a car that is fast and don't care if it races another race or not
 
about the only thing that will be aggressive would be gambling with pit stop stuff and setups, but they can only do so much in that area. Drivers are going as fast as the car allows them to go for the most part I would think.
 
i was thinking maybe a bumper may be used, but you are right
 
yeah, I didn't think of that part, I already forgot about Clint's spin dry move and various other shenanigans.
 
I think the title contenders have established themselves at this point. So even if a guy like Biffle, Newman or Kahne get their win and ticket to the Chase it doesn't look like they'll be a factor, with the only exception being Kenseth (I believe he will win some races still). Now somebody could catch fire and go on a run, but if anyone was to do it I would expect it would be a driver who has already won this year. Johnson, Harvick, Gordon, Logano and Kez look to be a step above the rest. So no matter how desperate the driver might be, if they can't run up front every week then it won't really matter much.
 
I like kenseth for the title, even as off as Toyota has been this year, he's still right up there every week with the 48, 24, and 4. With this new chase format, get a solid finish every chase race and you win the title. That's right in his alley. Jimmie and harvick are the fastest cars, but they haven't established the consistency yet
 
DaBiff1618 said:
I like kenseth for the title, even as off as Toyota has been this year, he's still right up there every week with the 48, 24, and 4. With this new chase format, get a solid finish every chase race and you win the title. That's right in his alley. Jimmie and harvick are the fastest cars, but they haven't established the consistency yet
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Jimmie is really starting to getting hot (in case it wasn't obvious) and I only see them getting better. Just when I think the 4 team has the ability to be consistent - they go and prove me wrong.
 
Wrangler1 said:
Jimmie is really starting to getting hot (in case it wasn't obvious) and I only see them getting better. Just when I think the 4 team has the ability to be consistent - they go and prove me wrong.
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Lol believe me I'm not saying Jimmie isnt the guy to beat. But this crap shoot system favors consistency. And I think jgr will catch up by the end of the season and kenseth will win some races
 
DaBiff1618 said:
Lol believe me I'm not saying Jimmie isnt the guy to beat. But this crap shoot system favors consistency. And I think jgr will catch up by the end of the season and kenseth will win some races
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Couldn't agree more - JGR has been making gains and maybe they will peak at just the right time.
 
DaBiff1618 said:
I like kenseth for the title, even as off as Toyota has been this year, he's still right up there every week with the 48, 24, and 4. With this new chase format, get a solid finish every chase race and you win the title. That's right in his alley. Jimmie and harvick are the fastest cars, but they haven't established the consistency yet
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Just my two cents or opinion...

I think Harvick is in a better position. Everyone for good reason is focusing on the 4s consistency as a team.
But you only have to put three races together for each elimination round prior to the finale and they have already proved they can meet that standard.
In the last 6 races Harvick has had the best avg fin, and the most laps led. Only Johnson with 2 wins has the edge on him.

And if Harvick gets deep in the chase the best tire changers, and gas men with SHR will get funneled to his team(a model for all the big teams). I dont think pit stops will be an issue.

I like Kenseth. He is one of the most solid and underrated drivers of our time and all time for that matter. But I dont think he can win the title purely on points performance. They have (all of TRD) got to get just a little more speed to be a genuine threat. The 2014 Champion will almost certainly also have to win at Homestead.
The big teams will all have all their best cars, best pit crew men, and their CCs loaded with all the data. It will be a supreme effort like no other before.

So all of them Toyotas have got to get faster, like as dominating and controlling matters. I dont see them doing that to JJ, Harvick, or one of the Penske cars. And one of them will get to final four and not get taken out by a freak accident.

The good news for them is that they have 22 more races to develop the speed.
 
Each race feels like a heat race to see who will advance. I check the standings to see who might be challenging the usual suspects.
 
Smolder needs to get with the show or he'll be left behind. I'm liking the way this season is shaping up the racing has been excellent so far this as compared to most of the past several years.
 
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