Handicapping Contest

M

millerliteford

Guest
Hello fellow race fans! After being referred to this site a few months ago by 71Fan I decided to sign up today. I recognize a few of the names from other sites and I'm looking forward to adding my sany to the mix. I'm also looking for a few good players for a contest that I have been running for the past 7 years and here's the scoop on that...

I guess you could say that my dislike with the typical formats of the many NASCAR fantasy league deals out there is what got me started. And for the last 7 years I have been running a NASCAR handicapping contest for those that may be interested. Notice the word "handicapping." Thats what it is. No fantasy, no fairy tales, no draft picks, and no money to spend on drivers. Not that there's anything wrong with any of that stuff, it can all be a fun addition to the season especially if at times things get boring on the track. But instead, what I created was a contest that involves purely picking the best 5 drivers each week. Study the charts, anaylze the numbers and past performances, or close your eyes and pick 5, any 5, it makes no difference what your system or strategy is, the goal is to pick the highest finishing 5 drivers each race.

I'm not familiar with all of the other so called fantasy leagues out there, but I have read enough to know that there are limitations as to what drivers can be on your team and how often you can change drivers. It may be a fun game, but it makes no sense to me. When you go to the horse races, after looking over the past performance information, you simply try to pick which one or ones that you feel are likely to finish in the money. Its a simple concept really, its called handicapping, and there are no limitations as to which horse you can pick. Obviously others will have different opinions, and anything can happen, thats what makes it interesting. The main thing is there are no limitations. For the NASCAR handicapping contest, pick the 5 drivers who you think will get the best finish each week at each partciular track. I would hate to be in a position where I couldn't have Earnhardt Jr on my team at Talladega, or Rusty on my team at Bristol, or Jeff Gordon at a road course, or Tony Stewart at any track, because I didn't have enough money to spend or I wasn't allowed a trade. The thought of such a thing is ridiculous for a true handicapper, or for someone that wants to try to pick the top 5 finishers in any given week. There should be no limitations and in my contest there aren't. Pick the 5 you like each week.

The contest is that simple, but there are complications when it gets to the scoring. Being a numbers freak I couldn't let things be that easy, and I wanted this to be a true test of ones handicapping abilities, so the scoring does get a bit interesting. But the good thing about the scoring is that you will not have to do it, that's my job. You will know how to do it, but you won't have to spend several hours computing everyone's score like I do each week.

A couple of notes about picking your 5 drivers. First of all, the drivers are picked in a specific order of your choosing. In other words, you will be trying to pick the winner of each race, along with the second through fifth place finishers. Don't worry about getting all of them right, its never happened in seven years, but for the ones you do get right, and there will be many throughout the year, you will earn bonus points. The other thing is that your selections must be posted before the start of the race for obvious reasons. A phone number as well as a fax number will be provided in the event there are problems with the internet, or if you are on the road and can not get to a computer.

Okay now that you know how to play, (just pick 5 drivers every week) I'll get into some detail on the scoring. Each of your 5 drivers will receive the same number of points in the contest as he receives on the race track plus a bonus for some drivers. As I mentioned, the contest has been going on for 7 years now and there have been changes and tweaks to the scoring to make things more interesing. One of the problems we had in the early days was the fact that some players would pick the same 5 drivers each and every week for the entire year. And you can still do that if you like, but it gets pretty boring if you ask me. The problem was that some drivers were simply not good picks to make. Whether it was the team or the driver, makes no difference, but it just wasn't a good idea to pick Ricky Craven, for example, ever, when there were so many better options available. Thats not the case any more. By the end of the year, the majority of the drivers that race the full schedule will get play in this contest because the field has been leveled. Yes, even more so than the job NASCAR has already done.

The bottom line is that I want lots of choices to be available and I want a reward system for players willing to take a risk, and thats what I have here.

In the contest there are 4 groups of drivers. The groups are determined by the points positions of the drivers. So to start out the year in 2003, the groups are determined by the final standings last year. Group 1 features the top 6 drivers in the points, Group 2, positions 7-12 in the points, Group 3, 13-25 in the points, and Group 4 has the remaining drivers. The Groups are adjusted during the year after the 7th, 14th, 21st, and 28th races according to the drivers points positions at the time. Here are the groups we start with this year.

Group 1 (No Bonus)

Tony Stewart
Mark Martin
Kurt Busch
Jeff Gordon
Jimmie Johnson
Ryan Newman

Group 2 (10% Bonus)

Rusty Wallace
Matt Kenseth
Dale Jarrett
Ricky Rudd
Dale Earnhardt
Jeff Burton

Group 3 (20% Bonus)

Bill Elliott
Michael Waltrip
Ricky Craven
Bobby Labonte
Jeff Green
Sterling Marlin
Dave Blaney
Robby Gordon
Kyle Petty
Kevin Harvick
Elliott Sadler
Terry Labonte
Ward Burton

Group 4 (30% Bonus)

Any driver not mentioned above!


Notice the bonuses mentioned beside each group. That is the premium that you get for selecting a driver in a particular group. The bonus is added to the number of points your driver scores on the race track. For example if you select a driver from Group 1 and he wins the race and leads the most laps he and you would receive 185 points. If that same driver finishes last and leads no laps you would receive 34 points. If you select a driver from Group 3 that wins the race and leads the most laps he would also receive 185 points, but in the contest you would receive 222 points. 185 + the 20% bonus = 222.


In Group 1 we have the best of the best, the top six in points. Obviously they have been winning races and or finishing near the front most weeks and as such they should get the most consideration. They are the favorites and since they are they get no bonus. If you want to pick the top 5 in points each week, go ahead, but you will get no bonus for doing so.

In Group 2 we have some very good drivers but not as good or consistant as the top 6 so they get a bonus on top of the regular points they earn at each race. Its a handicap system and to help level the playing field, so to speak, and to reward you for taking a chance on a driver not at the top of the points list, you get a 10% bonus. What this equates to is that your driver from Group 2 can now finish lower in the running order but still earn as many points as the guys in Group 1. A Group 2 driver that finishes 4th and leads a lap will earn 165 points, but after adding in the 10% bonus he now gets 181.5 points or nearly as much as a driver from Group 1 gets for winning the race.

In Group 3 theres more good drivers, but clearly not as good as those above them in the standings. They are capable of good runs and even wins on occasion, but consistancy is an issue. Its a bigger risk taking a driver from this group, so you get a bigger bonus. A Group 3 driver that finishes 7th and leads a lap would earn 181.2 points, again nearly as much as a driver from Group 1 gets for winning the race.

In Group 4 we have the also rans, the midpackers, the teams having trouble etc., in most cases, but at a particular time at a particular track, Michael Waltrip at Daytona comes to mind a couple of years ago, these guys are legitimate choices especially if you offer a bonus. A 30% bonus can make a big difference and thats what these guys get. A driver in Group 4 that finishes 10th and leads a lap will earn 180.7 points putting him almost even with a guy from Group 1 that wins a race.

The idea is that by the end of the year, the winner of the contest will have approximately the same amount of points as the eventual Winston Cup Champion. But to make things close on that one I needed to add an additional bonus category. The drivers get a bonus for leading laps, and my answer for that in the contest is a bonus for picking race winners and for picking drivers that do actually finish in the top 5 in the race, which is why your selections are made in a particular order. Each driver picked will earn points regardless of where he finishes, of course the higher he finishes the more points you will earn. But should one of your drivers finish somewhere in the top 5 you will earn an additional bonus as described below.

30 points - for correctly picking the winner of the race
10 points - for correctly picking the finishing position of a driver in spots 2 - 5
5 points - if one of your drivers does finish in the top but not in the correct position


The only remaining way to score points in the contest is by picking a first time winner. A big 100 point bonus for pulling that one off and several players collected on both Newman and Johnson last year. If you are successful in picking a first time winner, which is a driver that has not previously won a Cup race, then the extra 100 points is added to the total points earned by the other drivers you picked.

At this point, all of the points earned by your 5 drivers will be totaled and the result is divided by 5, giving you an average score for each race based on the five drivers you picked. And thats it. As I said the scoring is a bit complicated, but the good news is that you don't have to worry about that part. All you have to do is pick 5 drivers.

The cost to play is nothing, but we do have a voluntary prize fund for those that wish to participate. A $10 entry fee may be sent in and the total purse will be distributed among those that contribute. The winner of the contest gets 50% of the purse, the player picking the most race winners gets 25% and the player with the most winning weekly scores gets the remaining 25%. Also there is a traveling trophy that is sent to the winner, with the winners name each year being engraved on the trophy.

Its a good test of your handicapping skills, at the same time its like the real thing. Anything can happen on the race track at any given time and its the same way in the contest. My youngest daughter finished 9 spots ahead of me last year and she doesn't even watch the races. I'm not too happy about that and its a situation I plan on correcting this year, but again like the real thing, anything can happen, anyone can win, and I'll need some luck to come out on top this year. Not on top of the contest mind you, I just want to beat my 13 year old daughter. The rest of you can fight it out for the trophy.

Okay so here's the deal. If anyone is interested in playing along this year PM me or leave a message here with your email address and I will send you an invite to the private site where the contest is held. This thing is very labor intensive on my end and I can't open this thing up to the whole world wide internet viewing audience. But I figure I can handle another 20 players or so. All I ask is that if you do decide to play that you are interested in playing for the entire season. You can't compete if you don't post picks every week and I'm looking for competition here. At the same time, if during the season you do miss a week for whatever reason you will not be out of the running. Its a long 36 races and things happen, people get busy or tied up or whatever. So if you miss a week the score you will receive for that week will be equal to the last place players score for that particular week with a 5 point deduction. That won't be a good score, but it won't be so much of a penalty that it will prevent you from winning the contest. Actually the player that won last year missed 3 weeks, but he did do pretty well the other 33 weeks.

If you're interested, or have any questions, let me know.

Rusty
 
For an idea of how the scoring works, here is the breakdown of how things would have worked for the shootout. I awarded the points based on the finishing positions as if it were an official race and I gave the laps led bonus points to those that I saw lead laps.

In order of finish.......

1) # 8 - 185 points + 10% bonus = 203.5 points
2) #24 - 180 points + no bonus = 180 points
3) #17 - 170 points +10% bonus = 187 points
4) #12 - 160 points + no bonus = 160 points
5) #22 - 155 points + 20% bonus = 186 points
6) #49 - 155 points + 30% bonus = 201.5 points
7) #48 - 151 points + no bonus = 151 points
8) #21 - 142 points + 10% bonus = 156.2 points
9) #29 - 138 points + 20% bonus = 165.6 points
10) #32 - 134 points + 20% bonus = 160.8 points
11) #97 - 135 points + no bonus = 135 points
12) #2 - 127 points + 10% bonus = 139.7 points
13) #54 - 124 points + 30% bonus = 161.2 points
14) #5 - 121 points + 20% bonus = 145.2 points
15) #20 - 118 points + no bonus = 118 points
16) #9 - 115 points + 20% bonus = 138 points
17) #6 - 117 points + no bonus = 117 points
18) #88 - 109 points + 10% bonus = 119.9 points
19) #11 - 106 points + 30% bonus = 137.8 points

From here you take the total score your 5 drivers accumulated and add in the additional bonus points for picking the winners or other drivers that placed in the top 5 and divide the total score by 5 giving you the average score based on your 5 man team for the week.

Player #1 goes with 8-20-6-88-48 with the 30 point bonus for picking the winner he scores 147.88 for the week.

Player #2 goes with 24-49-29-2-22 and gets a 5 point bonus for the #24 being in the top 5 but not in the correct order and he scores 175.56 for the week.

It looks like Player 2 went with the best team this week!

Obviously things will be a bit scewed here because of the short field. If one of the drivers in Group 1 finishes near the back of a 43 car field you will take a much larger hit in the points for that driver. Still looking at the results above you can get an idea of the penalty if your driver finishes poorly, Stewart and Martin both in Group 1 managed only 118 & 117 points, also you notice how the bonuses for going with drivers not at the top of the points list can work to your advantage if they do indeed finish well. You get rewarded for taking the risk if you're right and the damage is reduced because of the bonus if your driver finishes midpack. If your driver finishes at the back you take a hit regardless of the bonus, but you do have 5 drivers and it is an average score, so that helps.

In this example going with Schrader would have been a good call as he scored 21 more points than Gordon who finished 4 spots ahead of him. If you took that risk you should get rewarded and you did.

Also notice that those taking a risk on the #11 car who finished 19th would have fared better than those taking the #97 who finished 11th.

And for those that might have went with the other Bodine who finished 13th, they would have scored more points than those going with Newman who finished 4th!


Like I mentioned things here are a but skewed because of the short field. A last place finish in a normal race pays only 34 points plus any bonuses that may apply and that will hurt. But you can at least get an idea of how the scoring works. The field is more level and there are many different ways to score points. There are also many ways to come up on the short end too. Those going with Stewart last year at Daytona only got the 34 points he earned during the race. So in many cases its as much of an issue as to who to leave out of your top 5 as it is who to put in your top 5. Of course you never know the right answer until its all over.

But its a long season and it will be filled with wild point swings from week to week. Amazingly enough though, each year it always comes down to one selection out of a total 180 made during the year that determines the champion. Its always that close.

Rusty
 
Just talked with Rusty, this looks like a pretty serious game goin on here! :)

I recommend those of you interested in it to contact him and get an invite.
 
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