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WASHINGTON (Aug. 30) - In a summer of political surprises, Howard Dean catapulted to the head of the Democratic presidential field while President Bush lost his aura of invincibility in Iraq. The fall campaign presents critical tests for both men.
An ailing economy and unrest in the Middle East threaten the president's re-election prospects although he remains a relatively popular leader, according to officeholders and activists in both parties who took stock of the 2004 race at the traditional Labor Day break.
In more than two dozen interviews, experts said they expect the Democratic primary fight to turn nasty as eight rivals try to halt Dean's rise. Some Democrats worry that none of the current contenders can stop Dean's anti-establishment candidacy, prompting speculation that high-profile alternatives may join the race.
Bush's father soundly defeated Michael Dukakis after a campaign that emphasized the Massachusetts governor's liberal credentials.
The president's focus remains on the general election, which strategists believe will be another evenly divided, bitterly partisan contest. Bush won the 2000 race by a few hundred votes in Florida and a 5-4 ruling in the Supreme Court.
Reapportionment gave him a small head start toward re-election. In 2000, Bush won 30 states for 271 electoral votes; population growth makes those states worth 278 electoral votes in 2004, a more comfortable margin but still close.
Polls show about 55 percent of Americans approve of Bush's job performance, but the number has slipped. Barely a majority of voters say they want him re-elected, many question the administration's credibility on Iraq, and his handling of the economy is suspect.
The 54-year-old Dean, an internist by training, is suddenly the one to beat. Polls show him tied for first in Iowa, site of the nation's first caucuses, and opening a big lead in New Hampshire, a vital early primary state.
His rise in New Hampshire has rocked the campaign of Sen. John Kerry of neighboring Massachusetts. A favorite of the Democratic elite, Kerry cast himself as the early front-runner and campaigned as if he had cemented the title.
Dean is advertising in nine states and signing up recruits in all 50, revolutionizing how the Internet is used to motivate backers and raise money. He collected $7.6 million from April through June, more than any other Democrat, and will raise $11 million or more by Sept. 30
Dean galvanized disenchanted Democrats by opposing Bush on the war in Iraq and demanding more from the political establishment, including party leaders in Washington. That poses a problem for his rivals, most of whom are party leaders in Washington.
They hope to weaken Dean in three September debates, possibly focusing their attacks on his policy flip-flops, his lack of foreign policy experience, his sometimes prickly personality and his record as governor.
Richard Gephardt and John Kerry air their first TV ads in September. Negative spots are not imminent, because the campaigns fear attacks would energize Dean's backers.
Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, already airing positive ads, needs to rise in polls this fall or his candidacy is doomed.
Surveys show Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut doing well in states conducting primaries after New Hampshire, but some senior party leaders have written him off as too conservative to win. Democrats expect retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark to enter the race soon, with some suspecting that he and Dean hope to share the Democratic ticket. New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Gore deny rumors that they'll run. Senior Republicans see an outside chance that Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who gave Bush a scare in the 2000 GOP primaries, might consider mounting a third-party bid or even bolt to the Democratic ticket. McCain dismisses such speculation.
An ailing economy and unrest in the Middle East threaten the president's re-election prospects although he remains a relatively popular leader, according to officeholders and activists in both parties who took stock of the 2004 race at the traditional Labor Day break.
In more than two dozen interviews, experts said they expect the Democratic primary fight to turn nasty as eight rivals try to halt Dean's rise. Some Democrats worry that none of the current contenders can stop Dean's anti-establishment candidacy, prompting speculation that high-profile alternatives may join the race.
Bush's father soundly defeated Michael Dukakis after a campaign that emphasized the Massachusetts governor's liberal credentials.
The president's focus remains on the general election, which strategists believe will be another evenly divided, bitterly partisan contest. Bush won the 2000 race by a few hundred votes in Florida and a 5-4 ruling in the Supreme Court.
Reapportionment gave him a small head start toward re-election. In 2000, Bush won 30 states for 271 electoral votes; population growth makes those states worth 278 electoral votes in 2004, a more comfortable margin but still close.
Polls show about 55 percent of Americans approve of Bush's job performance, but the number has slipped. Barely a majority of voters say they want him re-elected, many question the administration's credibility on Iraq, and his handling of the economy is suspect.
The 54-year-old Dean, an internist by training, is suddenly the one to beat. Polls show him tied for first in Iowa, site of the nation's first caucuses, and opening a big lead in New Hampshire, a vital early primary state.
His rise in New Hampshire has rocked the campaign of Sen. John Kerry of neighboring Massachusetts. A favorite of the Democratic elite, Kerry cast himself as the early front-runner and campaigned as if he had cemented the title.
Dean is advertising in nine states and signing up recruits in all 50, revolutionizing how the Internet is used to motivate backers and raise money. He collected $7.6 million from April through June, more than any other Democrat, and will raise $11 million or more by Sept. 30
Dean galvanized disenchanted Democrats by opposing Bush on the war in Iraq and demanding more from the political establishment, including party leaders in Washington. That poses a problem for his rivals, most of whom are party leaders in Washington.
They hope to weaken Dean in three September debates, possibly focusing their attacks on his policy flip-flops, his lack of foreign policy experience, his sometimes prickly personality and his record as governor.
Richard Gephardt and John Kerry air their first TV ads in September. Negative spots are not imminent, because the campaigns fear attacks would energize Dean's backers.
Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, already airing positive ads, needs to rise in polls this fall or his candidacy is doomed.
Surveys show Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut doing well in states conducting primaries after New Hampshire, but some senior party leaders have written him off as too conservative to win. Democrats expect retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark to enter the race soon, with some suspecting that he and Dean hope to share the Democratic ticket. New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Gore deny rumors that they'll run. Senior Republicans see an outside chance that Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who gave Bush a scare in the 2000 GOP primaries, might consider mounting a third-party bid or even bolt to the Democratic ticket. McCain dismisses such speculation.