Hurricane Dean

D

Digger

Guest
Look out Texas, this storm is strengthening and it's haulin' toward the Caribbean. :eek:

Could be an event EARLY next week.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 162031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...HURRICANE DEAN RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 100
MPH WINDS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...
EAST OF MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES
EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040...THE FRENCH BUOY 41101 AND A
NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...56.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
 
Wemight just as well get it right HERE!

A few more feet of water will hardly be noticed. The lower coast of Texas is the most uninhabited coastal place in the whole country.
A hurricane down there would do less real damage than anywhere else.
But the actual landing is not yet established. It may full well hit Mexico.
Betsy:rolleyes:
 
How far inland do you live Betsy? Hope far enough in to be away from all this huricane stuff.
 
Far enough!!

tkj24 said:
How far inland do you live Betsy? Hope far enough in to be away from all this huricane stuff.
Click to expand...

I'm on the outskirts of Austin. My home is in Williamson County between Cedar Park, Leander and Round Rock. It is raining right now and the rain is not even showing up on the local radar..
Started raining here yesterday with three different storms. Rained real hard this morning for a few hours and then sprinkled BIG drops most of the day.
As for hurricanes... We are too far inland for a lot of damage.
I'm looking on Craigslist for a kayak right now. Just having one would make me feel safer.
Betsy:rolleyes:
 
This rain behaved strangely today. There was heavy rain south of us --- passed right over --- and is now pouring on Dallas.

We sure could have used some. *sigh*
 
dry up here today. Makes my day as a bagger/carrier at the local family owned grocery store alot easier. But was noticably cooler, only 94 i think on the porch today. We're about a mile and a half or 2 miles from the oklahoma border so we're far enough inland only wind and tornadoes can get us. In which case we just pumped 4 feet of water out of our tonado shelter.
 
I feel for you guys there in Texas. But don't think that the hurricanes can't do much damage when you are that far away from the coast. As mag said, only tonadoes can get him up there, but those tornadoes can be spawned by the hurricanes coming on shore, and they can still carry lots of wind damage. A few years ago, our mountains in the west of the state (NC) were hit very hard from Ivan and that is a good six hours from the coast.

Y'all take care and maybe invest in a couple of kayaks.
 
Strange you should mention

tornados. All of the 24 inch or larger oaks on my property and nearby show signs of being twisted off when they were young. From waist to shoulder high the oaks were broken off and produced suckers that grew into towering trees...prolly over a hundred years ago.
An experienced eye can pick them out one by one around here. In fact NONE of the bigger trees were NOT damaged in the past.
Betsy ;)
 
This thing looks bad. Y'all in Texas and the Gulf Coast please prepare:

By mid-evening, the Atlantic season's first hurricane had strengthened into a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph after crossing over the warm waters of the Caribbean and forecasters warned it could grow into a monster tempest with 150 mph winds before steering next week into the Gulf of Mexico, with its 4,000 oil and gas platforms.

Dean could threaten the United States by Wednesday, forecasters said, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry's office suggested people get ready.
 
and i walked in the back fo our shop the other and ssid to my dad "we got 2 more panels bout ready to come up" and another 2x4 is ready to fall to the ground. And we have a bunch of hay sitting in the field, not sure there'll be enough time between the one thats arriving tomorrow and Dean for the field to dry up enough to bail. We got 3.5 people (one had a stroke and still hasn't recovered fully, but still can run a tractor) and 3 tractors and it's already cut so we just gotta rake and bale it
 
muggle not said:
This thing looks bad. Y'all in Texas and the Gulf Coast please prepare:

By mid-evening, the Atlantic season's first hurricane had strengthened into a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph after crossing over the warm waters of the Caribbean and forecasters warned it could grow into a monster tempest with 150 mph winds before steering next week into the Gulf of Mexico, with its 4,000 oil and gas platforms.

Dean could threaten the United States by Wednesday, forecasters said, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry's office suggested people get ready.
Click to expand...

If it keeps moving at the pace it is it'll hit Nola, if it slows, it hits Mexico.

I have a feeling we're done with this one (as far as U.S. landfall) - but it could pick up the pace and slam the Gulf.

There's an impressive tropical wave in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
 
All I got to say is that I'm cutting plywood right now. I don't trust any predictors at all. If it slows & catches the low, we are in serious danger of getting slammed. As far as the lower coast being uninhabited...obviously, some of you havent been there lately. Port Mansfield has been growing by leaps and bounds. All the way north up the coast to Palacios is major construction & new homes. Also, a CAT5 could thrash Austin if it came onshore from Rockport to Port O'connor. Could still be a strong 2 entering Austin depending on speed. We will actually go to friends place in Leander if we have to leave.Hopefully Dean will go into Mexico, far south of Brownsville.
 
CypressTrout said:
All I got to say is that I'm cutting plywood right now. I don't trust any predictors at all. If it slows & catches the low, we are in serious danger of getting slammed. As far as the lower coast being uninhabited...obviously, some of you havent been there lately. Port Mansfield has been growing by leaps and bounds. All the way north up the coast to Palacios is major construction & new homes. Also, a CAT5 could thrash Austin if it came onshore from Rockport to Port O'connor. Could still be a strong 2 entering Austin depending on speed. We will actually go to friends place in Leander if we have to leave.Hopefully Dean will go into Mexico, far south of Brownsville.
Click to expand...

It's got to speed up to catch the low. The track isn't 100% on, the storm's moving to the north moreso than the track indicates.
 
According to the weather channel, The US is going to be in good shape...He's heading to mexico now.....but anything can change in the next 3 days
 
Mexico Abandons Oil Rigs Ahead of Dean
Updated 2:38 PM ET August 20, 2007


By MARK STEVENSON

TULUM, Mexico (AP) - Hurricane Dean headed for a collision course with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Monday, forcing the state-run oil company to abandon its off-shore rigs, and sending tourists fleeing for the airports and locals searching for higher ground. The storm killed 10 people as it crossed the Caribbean.

Dean was already a powerful Category 4 storm as it raked the Cayman Islands. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said it could grow into a monstrous Category 5 hurricane before slashing across the Yucatan Peninsula and emerging in the oil-rich Gulf of Campeche.

Mexico's state oil company decided Monday to evacuate all 18,000 workers and shut down production on the offshore rigs that extract most of the nation's oil.

While the storm's center was expected to strike central Mexico, the outer bands of the storm were likely to bring rain and gusty winds to south Texas _ already saturated after an unusually rainy summer. Texas officials were taking no changes _ emergency operations centers opened, prison inmates were moved inland, and sandbags distributed.



The Mexican resort city of Cancun began evacuations and arranged for extra flights to help tens of thousands of tourists leave before Dean's arrival. The hotel zone was quiet on Monday, nearly all guests gone.

Florida Volynskaya, 24, of Baltimore, arrived at Cancun's airport Sunday planning to spend the night on the floor in hopes of getting a flight out.

"We just wanted to get out anywhere," said Volynskaya. "We really didn't want to be in a shelter."

Though forecasts had shifted the projected track to the south, Cancun still could face tropical-storm-force winds _ forecast to extend over an area of about 75,000 square miles, about the size of South Dakota _ and local fishermen were taking precautions.

"We're leaving. You don't play around with nature," Maclovio Manuel Kanul said as he pulled equipment out of his beachfront fishing shack near Cancun.

"We still haven't been able to recover from Wilma, and now this is coming."

Hurricane Wilma ravaged Cancun in 2005, filling hotel lobbies with shattered metal, marble, glass and muck, and reducing beaches to thin strips. The storm caused $3 billion in damage, the largest insured losses in Mexican history.

Dean _ the first hurricane of the Atlantic season _ bore down late Sunday on the Cayman Islands after battering Jamaica, but the vulnerable British territory said Monday it had been "spared the brunt of Hurricane Dean."

In one Cayman shelter _ the gymnasium of John Gray High School _ about 100 people gathered around radios Sunday night, listening to the latest news about the hurricane.

"Whichever God you believe in, now is the time to bow your head and pray to him," said Zemrie Thompson, the shelter coordinator. Those in the gym bowed their heads.

Dean's eye passed some 100 miles south of the Cayman Islands, which were spared the hurricane-force winds extending up to 60 miles from the center.

Early Monday, Dean had maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, up from 145 mph Sunday, and could dump up to 20 inches of rain. Even if the hurricane continues a steady westward course toward Mexico, parts of Texas could be flooded by the storm's outer bands.

"Our mission is very simple. It's to get people out of the kill zone, to get people out of the danger area, which is the coastline of Texas," said Johnny Cavazos, chief emergency director of Cameron County, at Texas' southern tip.

Jamaica avoided the direct hit when the storm wound up passing to the south Sunday night. The storm collapsed building, uprooted trees, flooded roads and tore the roofs off many homes, businesses and a prison block. No prisoners escaped.

Police said officers got into a shootout with looters at a shopping center in the central Jamaican parish of Clarendon, but nobody was hurt. Curfews were in effect until Monday evening. Authorities also cut power on the island to prevent damage to the power grid.

The government set up more than 1,000 shelters in converted schools, churches and the indoor national sports arena, but only 47 were occupied as the storm moved in, said Cecil Bailey of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management.

As of 2 p.m. EDT Monday, Dean was centered about 330 miles southwest of Grand Cayman.

George Lee, mayor of the Portmore community near the Jamaican capital Kingston, said appeals to evacuate went unheeded. Some islanders said they were afraid for their belongings if they moved to shelters.

"Too much crime in Kingston. I'm not leaving my home," Paul Lyn said in Port Royal, east of Kingston.

Many tourists who did not get flights out took shelter at places like Sandals Whitehouse, a resort that has buildings capable of withstanding a powerful storm.

Trinice Tyler, a postal worker from Lake Elsinore, Calif., said she would weather the storm there "on my knees praying."

"I'm celebrating my 40th birthday today, and it's going to be a birthday to remember," she said.

The National Hurricane Center said Dean was projected to have sustained winds of 160 mph before plowing into Mexico's Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday. The Mexican mainland or Texas could be hit later.

There was also a hurricane warning in effect for Belize's coast.

___

Associated Press writers Howard Campbell in Kingston, Jamaica; Mark Stevenson in Cancun, Mexico; Michael Melia in San Juan, Puerto Rico; Evens Sanon in Port-au-Prince, Haiti; Lisa Orkin Emmanuel in Miami; and Carley Petesch in New York contributed to this report.

Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
 
From the forecasted path, Cancun might be spared the worst, but one of my favorite places to chill, the Riviera Maya, right across from Cozumel, is right in the middle of the path. Cancun has the hotel zone, but down where this thing is heading, there are plenty of resorts all up and down that shore line. The shirt I'm wearing right now, worn in honor of that area, is from the resort Barcela Beach Hotel. I hope all have been removed from those resorts and at least moved inland. Of course, the projected course continues to allow Dean to be a hurricane while over land. This one is a real mess for sure.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom