Is it over?

FenderBumper

FenderBumper

The "good old days" ??
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Jul 4, 2011
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There's 4 guys left who have a reasonable chance to win the championship, but JJ got past one of his worst tracks and nabbed the points lead, which is when he's at his best. Now he goes to some of his strongest tracks.

Martinsville:
JJ..............23 races, average finish of 5.3 (last 4, 4.0)
Matt..........27 races, average finish of 15.8 (last 4, 15.8)
Kyle..........17 races, average finish of 16.1 (last 4, 17.5)
Kevin........24 races, average finish of 16.6 (last 4, 17.0)

Texas:
JJ..............20 races, average finish of 9.1 (last 4, 5.8)
Matt..........22 races, average finish of 8.5 (last 4, 8.8)
Kyle..........16 races, average finish of 14.1 (last 4, 5.0)
Kevin........21 races, average finish of 12.5 (last 4, 11.0)

Phoenix:
JJ..............20 races, average finish of 6.4 (last 4, 13.0)
Matt..........22 races, average finish of 17.2 (last 4, 17.0)
Kyle..........17 races, average finish of 13.9 (last 4, 17.0)
Kevin........21 races, average finish of 12.9 (last 4, 8.8)

Homestead:
JJ..............13 races, average finish of 17.6 (last 4, 18.8)
Matt..........27 races, average finish of 15.8 (last 4, 11.0)
Kyle..........8 races, average finish of 23.1 (last 4, 16.8)
Kevin........12 races, average finish of 7.9 (last 4, 5.5)

I think Matt is toast. If Kevin was closer, he could have had a shot. Can Kyle step it up? I don't think so.

Looks to me like JJ wins his 6th.
 
If Matt can keep it within 10 points going into Homestad I'd say he has a damn good chance at winning it.

Jimmie isn't exactly mr. awesome at that track.
 
Gordon is only 34 points behind the leader.
Too soon to count Gordon out.

JJ has a 4 point lead. It's not over.
 
gordonite said:
Gordon is only 34 points behind the leader.
Too soon to count Gordon out.

JJ has a 4 point lead. It's not over.
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Gordon wins the nex four races and the championship.

That would be delicious. lol
 
One big bang from TRD will toast either JGR car ............ it happened to Hamlin today
JJ isnt pefect
Harvick is to hot and cold to even worry about
Its getting interesting
 
anyone with a bowtie is all rite with me. we'll see how it plays out.
 
I'm still holding onto my prediction that it's going to come down to JJ, Harvick and Busch.

Sorry, but I just don't see Gordon being competitive enough to matter, at all.
 
SpeedPagan said:
I'm still holding onto my prediction that it's going to come down to JJ, Harvick and Busch.

Sorry, but I just don't see Gordon being competitive enough to matter, at all.
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Gordon is highly unlikely to win the championship this year but to say he hasn't been competitive enough to matter is nonsense. He's 34 points out of the lead dude. A non-competitive driver would be out to lunch already 100+ out of the lead.
 
reck said:
Gordon is highly unlikely to win the championship this year but to say he hasn't been competitive enough to matter is nonsense. He's 34 points out of the lead dude. A non-competitive driver would be out to lunch already 100+ out of the lead.
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Dude, in order to even matter at this point, he'd have to win the rest of the races or at least finish in the top five. I just don't see that happening.
 
I think it is down to JJ and Kenseth. One of the others has a slim chance of catching one of them, but not both.

Gordon no wins and no maximum point days. Harvick could possibly win one maybe Phoenix, but getting one maximum points day would be the most I would expect. Kyle Busch has had his most mature season yet, maybe a building block for better future chases but he will not catch Johnson and Kenseth.

I think it is a toss up between Kenseth and JJ, especially if they have no mechanical failures.

Kenseth has the biggest damage control issue with the Martinsville race. If he comes out of it with a top ten I think he has to be happy with limiting the damages. A top five would be almost like a win, given the performance differences at that track.

The one thing I am most impressed about Kenseth is his mental maturity. I dont think he will crack, and he also reversed the tables or expectations at New Hampshire too, so who knows how they will leave Martinsville.

JJ, I dont think he has a weak track coming up. I think Phoenix was a fluke last year, they missed the set up and was off for the whole weekend last fall, I am not expecting a repeat.

I think the odds are better for Kenseth at Texas, but that is no guarantee. Johnson is very capable of getting max points there.

Homestead I think Jimmie could win there too, he was fast last year there a bad pit stop and a mechanical failure took him out, but he has the speed. His Homestead stats are skewed imo, in most cases he only needed to protect his lead and has approached the track conservatively as a result.
 
JJ's worst fall Martinsville finish is 6th and that was way back in '02, his rookie year. He only really struggles or overdrives when he's put in a box like at Phoenix last year and I don't see Kenseth doing enough over the next two or three races to put him in another one. The only thing between the 48 bunch and a 6th championship at this point is a mechanical failure or getting caught up in someone else's wreck.
 
SpeedPagan said:
Dude, in order to even matter at this point, he'd have to win the rest of the races or at least finish in the top five. I just don't see that happening.
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As opose to Kyle and Kevin who sit a mere 8 points ahead of Gordon?

You are allowed to hate on Gordon but at least dont be so daft to think he doesn't have a chance.

And what makes you think Gordon cant finish in the top 5 the next 4 races? He's money at Martinville, does good at Phoenix, Solid at Texas and is coming off a win from last year at Homestead.

All winnable tracks for Gordon.

Stop acting like Gordon is barely running top 20 dude and face reality. Give a little credit where credit is due.
 
I don't think you can count Matt out; with the new team, Matt has shown that predicting his performance based on past statistics may be misleading. That being said, I think Jimmie has next weekend in the bag, as long as there aren't any incidents. His average finish in all of the Chase races at Martinsville is 1.89. That's ridiculous. If he wins this Sunday, he'll have 9 wins at the track :blink:

Hopefully the points will remain close all the way to Homestead - I'd love to see another tight battle for the win, à la Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards in '11.
 
DSquad48 said:
I don't think you can count Matt out; with the new team, Matt has shown that predicting his performance based on past statistics may be misleading. That being said, I think Jimmie has next weekend in the bag, as long as there aren't any incidents. His average finish in all of the Chase races at Martinsville is 1.89. That's ridiculous. If he wins this Sunday, he'll have 9 wins at the track :blink:

Hopefully the points will remain close all the way to Homestead - I'd love to see another tight battle for the win, à la Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards in '11.
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Good point. JJ is hot and cold at Homestead. He gets a top 10, or a top 30. Very few in between. I still think Matts move to the low line at Talla took away the cushion he needed going into the last 4. I hope he decides to become super aggressive in the last 4 so we have a real battle going into Homestead.

If Kyle keeps his cool and avoids any mistakes like he made at Kansas, he could be in position to take advantage of a dnf or top 30 finish by BOTH leaders.

I don't see RCR stepping it up for Kevin in the final stretch, because they never do.
 
It ain't over till it's over. I heard that somewhere before.

If we only added up averages and didn't actually race then yes it would be over. The good thing is that they still have four more races left and anything can happen.

Off to Martinsville where Double J is normally money. He may actually be only one bad pit stop from a terrible finish there. Or, maybe the victim of a last lap attempted pass for the lead going into turn #1. As long as he's not mathematically eliminated I'll always have hope to see him fail to be called '6-Time'.
 
gordonite said:
For the people so sure Gordon is out, I have two words for you... Allen Kulwiki.
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If they're not mathematically out. They're still in. Obviously its not likely to happen but we could see the whole top 5 change in 4 races. All it takes is one miscue, a blown tire, someone else's mistake etc... to take ANYONE out of this thing. Just ask Kyle Busch, Kasey Kahne, Carl Edwards, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman etc... I mean damn JJ could have wrapped it up last year but then wrecks in the final 2 races and boom... out.
 
reck said:
As opose to Kyle and Kevin who sit a mere 8 points ahead of Gordon?

You are allowed to hate on Gordon but at least dont be so daft to think he doesn't have a chance.

And what makes you think Gordon cant finish in the top 5 the next 4 races? He's money at Martinville, does good at Phoenix, Solid at Texas and is coming off a win from last year at Homestead.

All winnable tracks for Gordon.

Stop acting like Gordon is barely running top 20 dude and face reality. Give a little credit where credit is due.
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The difference between Busch and Gordon is that Busch is a high performer.

Jeff Gordon: Top 10: 16
Top 5: 7
Wins: 0

Kyle Busch: Top 10: 20
Top 5: 16
Wins: 4

Jimmie Johnson: Top 10: 20
Top 5: 13
Wins: 5

Matt Kenseth: Top 10: 17
Top 5: 9
Wins: 5

Statistically speaking, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch have a better chance of still having a chance to win going into Homstead, whereas Gordon has less of a chance. Looking at Gordon's stats for the 2013 season, the man is either inconsistent or he consistently finishes just outside the top 10, it depends on how you look at the data.

I'm sorry, but I stand by my prediction. It'll come down to Johnson, Busch, and Kenseth.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
It ain't over till it's over. I heard that somewhere before.

If we only added up averages and didn't actually race then yes it would be over. The good thing is that they still have four more races left and anything can happen.

Off to Martinsville where Double J is normally money. He may actually be only one bad pit stop from a terrible finish there. Or, maybe the victim of a last lap attempted pass for the lead going into turn #1. As long as he's not mathematically eliminated I'll always have hope to see him fail to be called '6-Time'.
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OK, wise guy. :mad:

I think that's the prayer 3 of these guys have left, something happens to JJ. I just don't see Matt racing his way to this championship now. I think the one guy who could shock me is Harvick. If RCR gives him great cars, he'll mash the gas and go for it, but he'll still need JJ to stumble.

I'm just hoping JJ doesn't run away with it from here, but that's the feeling I'm getting. HMS found something, and JJ is back to his old confident self. He rarely stumbles when he's in that mode. Last year it was Penske that found something and kept JJ out of the points lead, and that's when JJ stumbles. His over driving at Phoenix and blowing a bead when Brad took the lead is what decided that championship.
 
SpeedPagan said:
The difference between Busch and Gordon is that Busch is a high performer.

Jeff Gordon: Top 10: 16
Top 5: 7
Wins: 0

Kyle Busch: Top 10: 20
Top 5: 16
Wins: 4

Jimmie Johnson: Top 10: 20
Top 5: 13
Wins: 5

Matt Kenseth: Top 10: 17
Top 5: 9
Wins: 5

Statistically speaking, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch have a better chance of still having a chance to win going into Homstead, whereas Gordon has less of a chance. Looking at Gordon's stats for the 2013 season, the man is either inconsistent or he consistently finishes just outside the top 10, it depends on how you look at the data.

I'm sorry, but I stand by my prediction. It'll come down to Johnson, Busch, and Kenseth.
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I'm not saying the 24 will take the Cup. Just that (IMO) they've been running too good lately to count out, just 34 points behind the leader, and just 8 points out of 3rd.
 
LOL I think about 99% of the NASCAR world is hoping JJ has some sort of issue over the next 4.. I know I am... but whatever turns out the championship will most likely go to one of the only 2 people I didn't want to take it this year. I never thought I would say this but GO HARVICK! LOL Or Gordon.
 
Anyone want to take bet on whether or not Kyle Busch will have a meltdown this year that'll cost him the championship?
 
SpeedPagan said:
Anyone want to take bet on whether or not Kyle Busch will have a meltdown this year that'll cost him the championship?
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Possibly a crew-chief induced meltdown from excessive idiocy :D other wise I doubt it
 
Steven Wallace aint all bad, kybu wrecked him in the Snowball Derby last year and he threw a hammer at kybu's car then tried to get to kybu past his bodyguards after the race.
 
I say its most likely that Jimmie gets it but Matt certianly isnt out of the question and I could see Harvick or Busch getting it as well. But I dont think anyone else has a shot, sorry Gordon fans.
 
I think the saying goes "Stats are for losers" - I use stats for my picks (and loosing lately). The stats go out the window when a driver is having a good year or has momentum. I expect Jimmie will run well and Matt should too. It is a good race between those two for the Cup. Kyle and Kevin need help for a shot.
 
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