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Mrs.Nascar20
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Looking for the best bet to hoist the Nextel Cup in November? Consider: Only two drivers have finished each of the past five seasons in the top 10 -- Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart.
But are they the ones to beat over the course of NASCAR's grueling 36-race season?
Gordon and Stewart will be factors, certainly, and each has won a Cup title since 2000. Both have the experience; Gordon is entering his 13th full season, while Stewart is embarking on his seventh. But are they the odds-on favorites?
Don't bet on it -- and here's why: Jimmie Johnson, who is entering his fourth season.
JJ has back-to-back runner-up finishes in the point standings after finishing fifth as a rookie in 2002, and of the five drivers -- Gordon, Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman and Stewart -- who have finished in the top 10 the past three years, Johnson also has tallied the most points (14,527).
In the interest of full disclosure, Johnson's point total is derived from using the old system for 2004, since the points were reset before the inaugural Chase for the Nextel Cup began.
Nonetheless, the facts point to Johnson having a monster year in 2005. In addition to scoring the most points among those five drivers since '02, Johnson has the most wins (14), the third-most top fives (40) and the second most top 10s (64). Gordon (44) and Newman (42) have more top-five finishes and only Gordon has more top 10s (65).
In other words, Johnson has been the model of consistency -- and despite NASCAR changing the rules in incorporate a playoff format, Cup racing still rewards steadfastness. Doesn't it, Kurt Busch?
Johnson finished a career-worst 93.4 percent of the laps in 2004, down from 98.3 percent in both of his first two seasons. Last year, Johnson had eight finishes of 30th or worse; he had nine in 2002-03 combined.
In fact, Johnson not winning the Cup last year can be directly attributed to less than 35 laps in October. Had he ran just 23 more laps at Talladega plus another 11 at Kansas, Johnson would have made up about four spots total -- which would have been more than enough to overcome the eight points he fell short of Busch.
Expect Johnson to get off to a fast start in 2005. His average finish in six races at Daytona is eighth, including three top 10s -- and he's just as competitive at California, with a win and a second-place showing in four races.
So why is Johnson my choice to win the championsip in 2005? Remember this: The past three Cup champions -- Busch, Kenseth and Stewart -- won the title in their fourth season.
Bet you hadn't thought of that.
But are they the ones to beat over the course of NASCAR's grueling 36-race season?
Gordon and Stewart will be factors, certainly, and each has won a Cup title since 2000. Both have the experience; Gordon is entering his 13th full season, while Stewart is embarking on his seventh. But are they the odds-on favorites?
Don't bet on it -- and here's why: Jimmie Johnson, who is entering his fourth season.
JJ has back-to-back runner-up finishes in the point standings after finishing fifth as a rookie in 2002, and of the five drivers -- Gordon, Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman and Stewart -- who have finished in the top 10 the past three years, Johnson also has tallied the most points (14,527).
In the interest of full disclosure, Johnson's point total is derived from using the old system for 2004, since the points were reset before the inaugural Chase for the Nextel Cup began.
Nonetheless, the facts point to Johnson having a monster year in 2005. In addition to scoring the most points among those five drivers since '02, Johnson has the most wins (14), the third-most top fives (40) and the second most top 10s (64). Gordon (44) and Newman (42) have more top-five finishes and only Gordon has more top 10s (65).
In other words, Johnson has been the model of consistency -- and despite NASCAR changing the rules in incorporate a playoff format, Cup racing still rewards steadfastness. Doesn't it, Kurt Busch?
Johnson finished a career-worst 93.4 percent of the laps in 2004, down from 98.3 percent in both of his first two seasons. Last year, Johnson had eight finishes of 30th or worse; he had nine in 2002-03 combined.
In fact, Johnson not winning the Cup last year can be directly attributed to less than 35 laps in October. Had he ran just 23 more laps at Talladega plus another 11 at Kansas, Johnson would have made up about four spots total -- which would have been more than enough to overcome the eight points he fell short of Busch.
Expect Johnson to get off to a fast start in 2005. His average finish in six races at Daytona is eighth, including three top 10s -- and he's just as competitive at California, with a win and a second-place showing in four races.
So why is Johnson my choice to win the championsip in 2005? Remember this: The past three Cup champions -- Busch, Kenseth and Stewart -- won the title in their fourth season.
Bet you hadn't thought of that.
