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As the hunt for the sniper who has terrorized residents in the Washington, D.C., area enters a second week, the role of the profiler in helping investigators put a face on the killer has received more attention.
Media headlines blare that the profilers are baffled by the failure of the killer to conform to known patterns. But this assertion comes from a misunderstanding of the role, function and method of the profiler, said Clint Van Zandt, a former FBI profiler.
Portrayed in television and movies as the mystics of law enforcement, people with an almost psyche link to the mind of the killer, profilers are in fact engaged in what Van Zandt calls "a broad brush art."
"A profile is an investigative tool. It is not science, it is not DNA, it is not latent fingerprints. ... It is just one more tool investigators have. But a profile does not tell you who did the crime," Van Zandt said.
Profilers are engaged is building a "constantly evolving" document that is available to investigators to focus their search, Van Zandt said.
Van Zandt disputed the popular notion that research into previous multiple killings has provided clearly defined "profiles" of killers that can be used to fit each case that comes along.
"There is a skeletal structure, so to speak, of certain individuals, but the clothes that we hang on that skeleton come from investigation. And that's what starts to form the picture, the profile of who we're looking for," Van Zandt said.
And sometimes a killer may not fall within even very general categories, which seems to be the case so far with the killings in Maryland, Virginia and Washington.
"So far it appears we have kind of a hybrid. We have what we call a spree killer, in essence someone who kills one person after another without an emotional cooling off period in between," Van Zandt said.
"And yet, because of the period of time that has lapsed, now it is starting to take on some of the traits of a serial killer, in essence, someone who kills with that emotional cooling off period, which can be days, weeks, even months, depending on the serial killer himself or herself."
What profilers may well be able to offer investigators, depending on the evidence authorities have discovered at each crime scene, is a series of statistical probabilities -- the shooter's age, his race, his academic or professional background, perhaps even his motive, Van Zandt said.
This enables those in charge of the investigation to "take the population group and shrink it until it becomes manageable" he says.
"Hypothetically, we know, it's a statistical probability that a sniper in a situation like this is likely to be a male as opposed to a female. Well, then, we have eliminated 50 percent of the population. Now does that rule out a woman from doing this? No, but we'll say it is a very small chance.
"But if a witness says, 'I saw a car with smoke coming out of the window after a shot was fired and I saw a red-headed woman in the passenger seat,' profile be damned, you have to go with the evidence that you have," Van Zandt said.
So what are the types of questions profilers will be asking?
"You start out with very generic profiles, like, Is the offender organized or disorganized? An organized person has transportation, brings the weapon with him, has the ability to get in and out from a crime scene without being detected," Van Zandt said.
"Or, a disorganized person may walk or take public transportation. He may use a weapon of opportunity. You may see overkill on the part of the victim. He may just escape because he's lucky, not because he's calculating."
"So you start with an organized-disorganized offender. Then you say: A serial killer is this, a spree killer is that.
"But, again, these are broad general titles that you kind of paste up on a wall, and then you start to work with the intelligence you have, the information that comes through investigation, and you refine that."
Five Things We Know About the Maryland Sniper
Eight people have been shot by an unknown assailant in the counties outside Washington, D.C. We all have questions — here are a few answers
BY JESSICA REAVES
If you have no idea what's behind the shootings in suburban Washington, D.C., you're hardly alone. FBI, CIA and local police forces are also puzzled — and residents are terrified. While we're largely in the dark about the shooter's cause, motive or methods, a few theories have emerged. What do we know so far about the sniper?
Is this an act of terrorism?
Yes — just not the type we've gotten used to thinking about lately. On the one hand, this killer is terrorizing a community and a nation, and so he is, by definition a terrorist, but on the other hand these shootings probably don't originate with al-Qaeda. Foreign terrorists, as we've come to understand them in the post-9/11 world, are not prone to calling attention to themselves. They prefer to get in, act, and get out as silently as possible. This sniper is taunting the police, surfacing again and again to perform identical crimes. This kind of violence is more in line with domestic terrorism, a la Eric Rudolph, the man suspected of bombing several abortion clinics in the South — and a suspect in the Atlanta Olympic bombing.
Why are police not having any luck finding the shooter(s)?
Unfortunately, the killer's not providing investigators with much information. Even clues that seem promising haven't really panned out: while ballistic experts have been able to link the shootings by analyzing the bullets and casings they've recovered, for example, the high velocity rounds found in some of the victims can be used in many different kinds of guns, including hunting rifles and military weapons. Another bit of evidence surfaced late Tuesday: a tarot card with the words, "Dear Policeman: I am God" scrawled across it. Did it actually come from the sniper or from a prankster? That's one more mystery for investigators to ponder.
Police say that while they're working with extremely paltry evidence, they have gotten about 1,250 "credible" leads from more than 6,000 phone calls — which means there's probably someone out there with valuable information. Now the key is finding that person and putting the pieces together before the next murder. Can they do it? The good news is there are hundreds of extremely qualified people working this case. The bad news is that thousands of violent crimes go unsolved each year.
What is "geographic profiling?"
We've been hearing a lot about this forensic technique, in part because it's one of the only ways officials have to track the sniper. Geographic profiling is generally used when investigating serial crimes — rape, murder, robbery — and depends on mapping the location of each crime in order to determine the most likely point of origin for the suspect. In other words, if you pinpoint the place each shooting occurred, you can deduce a "center" for the criminal's activity, and that often ends up being the perpetrator's home.
Are these shootings totally random?
They certainly appear to be — but they're probably not. Most likely, there is some pattern at work here, just one that investigators haven't been able to pinpoint yet. The shooting Monday outside a Maryland middle school, for example, was a departure from the previous shootings, in terms of both location and victim type. It could have been just another piece in a very complex puzzle, or it might have been the violent crime equivalent of a Bronx cheer in the direction of police — ("You think you know what I'm going to do next? Think again."). Either way, the killer seems to be acting in a very deliberate, controlled manner, and is clever enough not to have been caught yet — two factors that belie a slipshod, random methodology.
When will the killings stop?
Either when the police find the killer(s) or when the shooter loses interest — and that, sadly, may not be for quite a while. According to former FBI profiler Clint Van Zandt, the killer's pattern shows every indication that he is toying with the police, using the media for information, challenging assumptions we make about him, and generally taking great pleasure in outsmarting all of us. The shooter knows he's got our attention, Van Zandt speculates, — he gets all the confirmation he needs whenever he turns on the television — and hints like the carefully placed tarot card mean he's playing to the spotlight. We don't know anything for sure about the killer's state of mind, but chances are he's enjoying himself enormously.
Man shot, killed at D.C.-area gas station
Virginia police probe sniper link
Authorities are investigating whether a fatal shooting Wednesday night at a gas station near Washington is connected to sniper shootings in the area that have claimed six lives.
A man was slain at 8:15 p.m. ET after he had finished pumping gas. Surveillance video showed him slumped between a gas pump and his car.
Police are looking for a white Dodge Caravan that was spotted leaving the scene. A similar vehicle was mentioned by witnesses at one of the earlier shootings.
"At this point we cannot say if this case is related to those other shootings," Prince William County Police Chief Charlie Deane said early Thursday.
Authorities are withholding the identity of the latest victim until his family has been notified.
"The victim was by himself," Deane said. "He's not a local person."
Investigators declined to say where the victim had been hit, or how many times he had been shot. "We don't know where the shot or shots came from," Deane said.
Jeff Hintosh, a 19-year-old waiter at a nearby Shoney's, said he and his co-workers heard a single shot and did not see a fleeing vehicle. All the sniper victims so far have been hit with a single shot.
Prince William County police spokeswoman Sgt. Kim Chinn asked witnesses to the shooting to call police at (703) 792-6500 or Crime Solvers at (800) 673-2777.
The Montgomery County, Maryland, Police Department, which is leading the sniper investigation, sent a team of investigators to the scene.
Manassas is a suburb of about 35,000 people, southwest of the nation's capital.
Shooting evidence analyzed
Wednesday night's killing came exactly one week after the first shooting was reported in Montgomery County, Maryland.
Five people were killed in Montgomery County during a 16-hour period from October 2 into the next morning. A sixth victim was shot dead the night of October 3 on a Washington street.
Two of the Maryland victims were killed at gas stations. (Victims' profiles)
A woman was wounded Friday in Fredericksburg, Virginia. She was released from a hospital Tuesday.
In the most recent shooting that has been conclusively linked to the sniper, a 13-year-old boy was shot Monday at a middle school in Bowie, Maryland. He remains in critical but stable condition at a Washington hospital. (Trail of the sniper)
Forensics evidence, including ballistics tests on the bullets, have linked the eight shootings. Authorities said each victim was hit once with a .223-caliber bullet fired from a rifle from a relatively long distance.
Law enforcement sources said Wednesday investigators had found new evidence near the middle school, including a shell casing and a tarot card inscribed with the message, "Dear Policeman: I am God."
The evidence was taken to an FBI lab for fingerprint and DNA tests as well as analyses of the handwriting, spelling and the card's origins. Authorities were trying to determine whether the shell casing can help them determine the type of weapon used in the shooting. (Tracing the bullets)
Sources said it was unclear whether the tarot card was related to the shootings.
The card was the one depicting death in the fortune-telling deck. The death card, which often shows a skeletal figure on a horse, represents endings, transitions, eliminations and the experiencing of inexorable forces.
Authorities said the card could have been left by a prankster.
Police angered by leak
Montgomery County Police Chief Charles Moose said Wednesday he was upset about the leak of the tarot card information to reporters.
"It is inappropriate to comment on this card," he said. "There are a lot of things that have the potential to hurt the investigation."
Police Chief Charles Moose says the discovery of a tarot card should not have been leaked.
Moose also criticized statements from retired law enforcement personnel who are news analysts for TV networks and stations. Moose said it was insulting to hear commentary from "talking heads" who have not been briefed, seen evidence or talked to investigators. (Moose profile)
Investigators were sifting through 1,600 tips and leads deemed credible.
Authorities said they hope a growing reward fund may help persuade anyone who knows anything about the killings to come forward.
The reward is now nearly $305,000 for information leading to the arrest and indictment of the person responsible for the killings. The fund includes $100,000 from the state of Maryland, $50,000 from Montgomery County and $10,000 from a victims' rights foundation.
Investigators were reconsidering a September 14 shooting outside a Silver Spring, Maryland, liquor store, trying to determine whether the same culprit might be responsible.
A man was wounded there but survived. Michael Bouchard, a special agent with the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, said the ballistics evidence from the crime scene was inconclusive.
Authorities also were looking into a fire at a Michaels crafts store near the middle school in Bowie. The crafts store burned down, and the case remains open. Several of the shootings have taken place near Michaels crafts stores.
Media headlines blare that the profilers are baffled by the failure of the killer to conform to known patterns. But this assertion comes from a misunderstanding of the role, function and method of the profiler, said Clint Van Zandt, a former FBI profiler.
Portrayed in television and movies as the mystics of law enforcement, people with an almost psyche link to the mind of the killer, profilers are in fact engaged in what Van Zandt calls "a broad brush art."
"A profile is an investigative tool. It is not science, it is not DNA, it is not latent fingerprints. ... It is just one more tool investigators have. But a profile does not tell you who did the crime," Van Zandt said.
Profilers are engaged is building a "constantly evolving" document that is available to investigators to focus their search, Van Zandt said.
Van Zandt disputed the popular notion that research into previous multiple killings has provided clearly defined "profiles" of killers that can be used to fit each case that comes along.
"There is a skeletal structure, so to speak, of certain individuals, but the clothes that we hang on that skeleton come from investigation. And that's what starts to form the picture, the profile of who we're looking for," Van Zandt said.
And sometimes a killer may not fall within even very general categories, which seems to be the case so far with the killings in Maryland, Virginia and Washington.
"So far it appears we have kind of a hybrid. We have what we call a spree killer, in essence someone who kills one person after another without an emotional cooling off period in between," Van Zandt said.
"And yet, because of the period of time that has lapsed, now it is starting to take on some of the traits of a serial killer, in essence, someone who kills with that emotional cooling off period, which can be days, weeks, even months, depending on the serial killer himself or herself."
What profilers may well be able to offer investigators, depending on the evidence authorities have discovered at each crime scene, is a series of statistical probabilities -- the shooter's age, his race, his academic or professional background, perhaps even his motive, Van Zandt said.
This enables those in charge of the investigation to "take the population group and shrink it until it becomes manageable" he says.
"Hypothetically, we know, it's a statistical probability that a sniper in a situation like this is likely to be a male as opposed to a female. Well, then, we have eliminated 50 percent of the population. Now does that rule out a woman from doing this? No, but we'll say it is a very small chance.
"But if a witness says, 'I saw a car with smoke coming out of the window after a shot was fired and I saw a red-headed woman in the passenger seat,' profile be damned, you have to go with the evidence that you have," Van Zandt said.
So what are the types of questions profilers will be asking?
"You start out with very generic profiles, like, Is the offender organized or disorganized? An organized person has transportation, brings the weapon with him, has the ability to get in and out from a crime scene without being detected," Van Zandt said.
"Or, a disorganized person may walk or take public transportation. He may use a weapon of opportunity. You may see overkill on the part of the victim. He may just escape because he's lucky, not because he's calculating."
"So you start with an organized-disorganized offender. Then you say: A serial killer is this, a spree killer is that.
"But, again, these are broad general titles that you kind of paste up on a wall, and then you start to work with the intelligence you have, the information that comes through investigation, and you refine that."
Five Things We Know About the Maryland Sniper
Eight people have been shot by an unknown assailant in the counties outside Washington, D.C. We all have questions — here are a few answers
BY JESSICA REAVES
If you have no idea what's behind the shootings in suburban Washington, D.C., you're hardly alone. FBI, CIA and local police forces are also puzzled — and residents are terrified. While we're largely in the dark about the shooter's cause, motive or methods, a few theories have emerged. What do we know so far about the sniper?
Is this an act of terrorism?
Yes — just not the type we've gotten used to thinking about lately. On the one hand, this killer is terrorizing a community and a nation, and so he is, by definition a terrorist, but on the other hand these shootings probably don't originate with al-Qaeda. Foreign terrorists, as we've come to understand them in the post-9/11 world, are not prone to calling attention to themselves. They prefer to get in, act, and get out as silently as possible. This sniper is taunting the police, surfacing again and again to perform identical crimes. This kind of violence is more in line with domestic terrorism, a la Eric Rudolph, the man suspected of bombing several abortion clinics in the South — and a suspect in the Atlanta Olympic bombing.
Why are police not having any luck finding the shooter(s)?
Unfortunately, the killer's not providing investigators with much information. Even clues that seem promising haven't really panned out: while ballistic experts have been able to link the shootings by analyzing the bullets and casings they've recovered, for example, the high velocity rounds found in some of the victims can be used in many different kinds of guns, including hunting rifles and military weapons. Another bit of evidence surfaced late Tuesday: a tarot card with the words, "Dear Policeman: I am God" scrawled across it. Did it actually come from the sniper or from a prankster? That's one more mystery for investigators to ponder.
Police say that while they're working with extremely paltry evidence, they have gotten about 1,250 "credible" leads from more than 6,000 phone calls — which means there's probably someone out there with valuable information. Now the key is finding that person and putting the pieces together before the next murder. Can they do it? The good news is there are hundreds of extremely qualified people working this case. The bad news is that thousands of violent crimes go unsolved each year.
What is "geographic profiling?"
We've been hearing a lot about this forensic technique, in part because it's one of the only ways officials have to track the sniper. Geographic profiling is generally used when investigating serial crimes — rape, murder, robbery — and depends on mapping the location of each crime in order to determine the most likely point of origin for the suspect. In other words, if you pinpoint the place each shooting occurred, you can deduce a "center" for the criminal's activity, and that often ends up being the perpetrator's home.
Are these shootings totally random?
They certainly appear to be — but they're probably not. Most likely, there is some pattern at work here, just one that investigators haven't been able to pinpoint yet. The shooting Monday outside a Maryland middle school, for example, was a departure from the previous shootings, in terms of both location and victim type. It could have been just another piece in a very complex puzzle, or it might have been the violent crime equivalent of a Bronx cheer in the direction of police — ("You think you know what I'm going to do next? Think again."). Either way, the killer seems to be acting in a very deliberate, controlled manner, and is clever enough not to have been caught yet — two factors that belie a slipshod, random methodology.
When will the killings stop?
Either when the police find the killer(s) or when the shooter loses interest — and that, sadly, may not be for quite a while. According to former FBI profiler Clint Van Zandt, the killer's pattern shows every indication that he is toying with the police, using the media for information, challenging assumptions we make about him, and generally taking great pleasure in outsmarting all of us. The shooter knows he's got our attention, Van Zandt speculates, — he gets all the confirmation he needs whenever he turns on the television — and hints like the carefully placed tarot card mean he's playing to the spotlight. We don't know anything for sure about the killer's state of mind, but chances are he's enjoying himself enormously.
Man shot, killed at D.C.-area gas station
Virginia police probe sniper link
Authorities are investigating whether a fatal shooting Wednesday night at a gas station near Washington is connected to sniper shootings in the area that have claimed six lives.
A man was slain at 8:15 p.m. ET after he had finished pumping gas. Surveillance video showed him slumped between a gas pump and his car.
Police are looking for a white Dodge Caravan that was spotted leaving the scene. A similar vehicle was mentioned by witnesses at one of the earlier shootings.
"At this point we cannot say if this case is related to those other shootings," Prince William County Police Chief Charlie Deane said early Thursday.
Authorities are withholding the identity of the latest victim until his family has been notified.
"The victim was by himself," Deane said. "He's not a local person."
Investigators declined to say where the victim had been hit, or how many times he had been shot. "We don't know where the shot or shots came from," Deane said.
Jeff Hintosh, a 19-year-old waiter at a nearby Shoney's, said he and his co-workers heard a single shot and did not see a fleeing vehicle. All the sniper victims so far have been hit with a single shot.
Prince William County police spokeswoman Sgt. Kim Chinn asked witnesses to the shooting to call police at (703) 792-6500 or Crime Solvers at (800) 673-2777.
The Montgomery County, Maryland, Police Department, which is leading the sniper investigation, sent a team of investigators to the scene.
Manassas is a suburb of about 35,000 people, southwest of the nation's capital.
Shooting evidence analyzed
Wednesday night's killing came exactly one week after the first shooting was reported in Montgomery County, Maryland.
Five people were killed in Montgomery County during a 16-hour period from October 2 into the next morning. A sixth victim was shot dead the night of October 3 on a Washington street.
Two of the Maryland victims were killed at gas stations. (Victims' profiles)
A woman was wounded Friday in Fredericksburg, Virginia. She was released from a hospital Tuesday.
In the most recent shooting that has been conclusively linked to the sniper, a 13-year-old boy was shot Monday at a middle school in Bowie, Maryland. He remains in critical but stable condition at a Washington hospital. (Trail of the sniper)
Forensics evidence, including ballistics tests on the bullets, have linked the eight shootings. Authorities said each victim was hit once with a .223-caliber bullet fired from a rifle from a relatively long distance.
Law enforcement sources said Wednesday investigators had found new evidence near the middle school, including a shell casing and a tarot card inscribed with the message, "Dear Policeman: I am God."
The evidence was taken to an FBI lab for fingerprint and DNA tests as well as analyses of the handwriting, spelling and the card's origins. Authorities were trying to determine whether the shell casing can help them determine the type of weapon used in the shooting. (Tracing the bullets)
Sources said it was unclear whether the tarot card was related to the shootings.
The card was the one depicting death in the fortune-telling deck. The death card, which often shows a skeletal figure on a horse, represents endings, transitions, eliminations and the experiencing of inexorable forces.
Authorities said the card could have been left by a prankster.
Police angered by leak
Montgomery County Police Chief Charles Moose said Wednesday he was upset about the leak of the tarot card information to reporters.
"It is inappropriate to comment on this card," he said. "There are a lot of things that have the potential to hurt the investigation."
Police Chief Charles Moose says the discovery of a tarot card should not have been leaked.
Moose also criticized statements from retired law enforcement personnel who are news analysts for TV networks and stations. Moose said it was insulting to hear commentary from "talking heads" who have not been briefed, seen evidence or talked to investigators. (Moose profile)
Investigators were sifting through 1,600 tips and leads deemed credible.
Authorities said they hope a growing reward fund may help persuade anyone who knows anything about the killings to come forward.
The reward is now nearly $305,000 for information leading to the arrest and indictment of the person responsible for the killings. The fund includes $100,000 from the state of Maryland, $50,000 from Montgomery County and $10,000 from a victims' rights foundation.
Investigators were reconsidering a September 14 shooting outside a Silver Spring, Maryland, liquor store, trying to determine whether the same culprit might be responsible.
A man was wounded there but survived. Michael Bouchard, a special agent with the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, said the ballistics evidence from the crime scene was inconclusive.
Authorities also were looking into a fire at a Michaels crafts store near the middle school in Bowie. The crafts store burned down, and the case remains open. Several of the shootings have taken place near Michaels crafts stores.