H
HardScrabble
Guest
There are 11 chances for the championship chase to change complexion. 11 races equaling some 4275 miles of racing lapping the various courses around 3686 times. Lots of opportunity both ways, though historically no one has ever come from this far back at this point in the season.............
Going into tomorrow night's race Matt Kenseth's magic number is 6. If Matt finishes 6th or better in every remaining race it matters not at all what any of the other drivers do. Matt will win the championship.
In the remaining 11 races Jr must gain an average of over 35 points in each and every race to take over the points lead, somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 or 8 spots each race depending which spots and the bonus points.
In those same races Kevin must gain almost 38 points per race to get to the front.
What that really boils down to is simple, kinda. Matt can afford a bit of a stumble at a race, perhaps a couple or three depending on how bad the stumble is. Those in pursuit cannot. The pressure is on the pursuers as one bad finish in a race where Matt does well will likely end any realistic shot of overtaking him.
There are few absolutes, but the odds are pretty obvious.
One absolute in the points chase. As of now drivers starting with 38th place John Andretti and back are mathematically out of the chase. They cannot under any circumstances catch the Kenseth Express.
Going into tomorrow night's race Matt Kenseth's magic number is 6. If Matt finishes 6th or better in every remaining race it matters not at all what any of the other drivers do. Matt will win the championship.
In the remaining 11 races Jr must gain an average of over 35 points in each and every race to take over the points lead, somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 or 8 spots each race depending which spots and the bonus points.
In those same races Kevin must gain almost 38 points per race to get to the front.
What that really boils down to is simple, kinda. Matt can afford a bit of a stumble at a race, perhaps a couple or three depending on how bad the stumble is. Those in pursuit cannot. The pressure is on the pursuers as one bad finish in a race where Matt does well will likely end any realistic shot of overtaking him.
There are few absolutes, but the odds are pretty obvious.
One absolute in the points chase. As of now drivers starting with 38th place John Andretti and back are mathematically out of the chase. They cannot under any circumstances catch the Kenseth Express.
