Richmond, 14 drivers competing for 3 spots in the Chase

dpkimmel2001

dpkimmel2001

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Yes, it's all but over but who knows what may happen? There are 14 drivers that are mathematically capable of making the Chase after the checkered flag @ Richmond.

Eight drivers have clinched spots in the top 10: Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman.

Brad Keselowski has clinched at least a wild-card spot but could also finish in the top 10.

The Atlanta race eliminated exactly two drivers, Jeff Burton and Jamie McMurray, 24th and 25th in the Cup standings, respectively. That means that no fewer than 14 drivers will arrive at Richmond for Saturday night’s shootout with at least an outside chance at making the Chase.

Here's what has to happen.....

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (9th in points). Clinches a spot in the Chase with a finish of 20th or better, or by finishing fewer than 25 points behind Keselowski, regardless of position. Earnhardt also can qualify for the Chase if Paul Menard, Marcos Ambrose and David Ragan (drivers with one victory) all finish outside the top 20 in the standings, even if Keselowski knocks Earnhardt out of the top 10. That would leave Denny Hamlin (one win) as the first wild card and Earnhardt as the second, as the highest non-winner in positions 11-20 (as long as Stewart doesn't also fall out of top 10 and finish ahead of him). Earnhardt Jr. has three wins in 24 career starts at Richmond with an average finish of 14th. He has only one finish better than 20th in his last five Richmond starts. In his previous 19 starts, he had only two finishes outside top 20.

Tony Stewart (10th). Clinches a spot in the Chase with a finish of 18th or better, or by finishing fewer than 23 points behind Keselowski, regardless of position. Stewart also can qualify for the Chase if Menard, Ambrose and Ragan (drivers with one victory) all finish outside the top 20 in the standings, even if Keselowski knocks Stewart out of the top 10. That would leave Hamlin (one win) as the first wild card and Stewart as the second, as the highest non-winner in positions 11-20 (as long as Earnhardt Jr. doesn't also fall out of top 10 and finish ahead of him). Stewart has three wins (last coming in 2002) and nine top-fives with an average finish of 11th in 25 starts at Richmond. Stewart finished 18th or better in 20 of his 25 career Richmond starts.

Denny Hamlin (12th, with one victory). Currently in the second wild-card spot. Locks himself in with a victory. Clinches a Chase berth outright if none of the following drivers wins at Richmond: AJ Allmendinger, Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr., Kasey Kahne, Joey Logano, Menard, Ambrose or Ragan. Clinches a Chase berth if one of those drivers does win and Keselowski supplants either Earnhardt or Stewart in the top 10. Clinches a Chase berth if Allmendinger, Bowyer, Biffle, Truex, Kahne or Logano wins and Hamlin remains ahead of the winning driver in the standings. Also can clinch by beating Stewart by 42 points at Richmond, which would require Hamlin to finish no worse than second and lead a lap (with Stewart running 43rd). Hamlin has two wins – including the September 2010 race – at Richmond and six top-fives in 11 starts. He has an average finish of 7.455.

AJ Allmendinger (13th). Clinches a Chase berth if he wins AND EITHER Keselowski supplants Earnhardt or Stewart in the top 10 OR Allmendinger finishes 12 points ahead of Hamlin at Richmond. Allmendinger has a career-best of seventh in nine starts at Richmond.

Clint Bowyer (14th). Clinches a Chase berth if he wins AND EITHER Keselowski supplants Earnhardt or Stewart in the top 10 OR Bowyer finishes 12 points ahead of Hamlin at Richmond. Bowyer has one win and six top-10s in 11 career starts at Richmond.

Greg Biffle (15th). Clinches a Chase berth if he wins AND EITHER Keselowski supplants Earnhardt or Stewart in the top 10 OR Biffle finishes 29 points ahead of Hamlin at Richmond. Biffle has two top-fives with a best of third in 18 career starts at Richmond.

Martin Truex Jr. (16th). Clinches a Chase berth if he wins AND EITHER Keselowski supplants Earnhardt or Stewart in the top 10 OR Truex finishes 34 points ahead of Hamlin at Richmond. Truex has a career-best of fifth in 11 starts at Richmond.

Kasey Kahne (17th). Clinches a Chase berth if he wins AND EITHER Keselowski supplants Earnhardt or Stewart in the top 10 OR Kahne finishes 43 points ahead of Hamlin at Richmond. Kahne has one win (May 2005) in 15 career starts at Richmond.

Joey Logano (18th). Clinches a Chase berth if he wins AND EITHER Keselowski supplants Earnhardt or Stewart in the top 10 OR Hamlin fails to start the race at Richmond. Logano has one top-five (a fourth) in five career starts at Richmond.

Mark Martin (19th). Clinches a Chase spot if he wins, ONLY IF Keselowski supplants Earnhardt or Stewart in the top 10. Martin has one win (in 1990) and 17 top-fives in 51 career starts at Richmond.

Paul Menard (20th, win one win). Clinches a Chase spot if he wins the race. Menard has a best finish of 16th in nine career starts at Richmond.

Marcos Ambrose (21st, with one win). Clinches a Chase spot if he wins and moves back into the top 20. Ambrose has a one top-five (a fifth) in five career starts at Richmond.

Juan Pablo Montoya (22nd). Clinches a Chase spot if he wins and moves back into the top 20, ONLY IF Keselowski supplants Earnhardt or Stewart in the top 10. Montoya has a career-best of sixth in nine career starts at Richmond.

David Ragan (23rd, with one win). Clinches a Chase spot if he wins and moves back into the top 20. Ragan has two top-fives with a career-best of third in nine starts at Richmond.
 
Nice work, but it's even more complicated than this. Stewart or Jr can still be knocked out by Hamlin.

Montoya could win and not make the chase, even if Kez makes the top ten, if he doesn't end the season with more points than Menard.

I'm starting to think they may need to modify the WC. A guy 11th or 12th in points with no wins could get bumped by a guy 100 (or more) points back. It's just TOO wild.

Perhaps having more wins AND being within 50 points of 11th OR 12th would make more sense.
 
FenderBumper said:
it's even more complicated than this.
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This new points structure was supposed to be so much easier than before. It doesn't seem to be working out that way. Heck, last week it took three days to determine that both Harvick and Gordon had clinched a Chase spot. So much for a simplified system. I'm think that if they make it confusing enough, my guy, Jr. can still win the Championship. :D
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
This new points structure was supposed to be so much easier than before. It doesn't seem to be working out that way. Heck, last week it took three days to determine that both Harvick and Gordon had clinched a Chase spot. So much for a simplified system. I'm think that if they make it confusing enough, my guy, Jr. can still win the Championship. :D
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lol That's so true. It seems that every position lower than 6 th had a long string of 'if this happens, and that doesn't' conditions for locking in the spot. Jr's (and NASCARs) nighmare scenario still exists. If he has a terrible day at Richmond......
 
FenderBumper said:
lol That's so true. It seems that every position lower than 6 th had a long string of 'if this happens, and that doesn't' conditions for locking in the spot. Jr's (and NASCARs) nighmare scenario still exists. If he has a terrible day at Richmond......
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I'd have to look back but has the Chase ever produced a winner outside of the top 5 going into it? For the most part those guys outside of the top 5 are there just to compete for one of the ten tables at the banquet.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
I'd have to look back but has the Chase ever produced a winner outside of the top 5 going into it? For the most part those guys outside of the top 5 are there just to compete for one of the ten tables at the banquet.
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It would be interesting to see, but I don't know where you can get old point totals after 26, or ranking after the reset.
 
FenderBumper said:
Nice work, but it's even more complicated than this. Stewart or Jr can still be knocked out by Hamlin.

Montoya could win and not make the chase, even if Kez makes the top ten, if he doesn't end the season with more points than Menard.

I'm starting to think they may need to modify the WC. A guy 11th or 12th in points with no wins could get bumped by a guy 100 (or more) points back. It's just TOO wild.

Perhaps having more wins AND being within 50 points of 11th OR 12th would make more sense.
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The Whole Wild Card scenario was put in place to AWARD drivers that WIN! I like it just the way it is. With the top 20 in points catch it keeps out the guys who just lucked into a Win and gives the guys who really run well and Win a race or two Butt have a few issues and arent in the Top Ten a chance to be in The Chase.
 
FlFlash said:
The Whole Wild Card scenario was put in place to AWARD drivers that WIN! I like it just the way it is. With the top 20 in points catch it keeps out the guys who just lucked into a Win and gives the guys who really run well and Win a race or two Butt have a few issues and arent in the Top Ten a chance to be in The Chase.
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That's my point, unless you feel Logano, Menard, Ambrose, Ragan, Kahne, Martin and Montoya are finishing up a 26 race stretch of running well. Every one of those guys has a chance to make the chase, and knock out Jr or Stewart to get in.

To me, the bare minimum of 'running well' is being within 50 points of 12th place. I can live with it the way it is because I never felt the added 11th and 12th chase positions were legit, but getting in and knocking out a guy who is 2 full races in points ahead of you is a waste. Just imagine a 30th place car at Richmond staying out and it rains, giving him the last chase spot. I could live with someone 50 points back, but a guy in 20th 100+ points back is a bit much.
 
I guess I just feel like a driver who can't Win a race in 26 starts don't belong in The Chase :D

Being a Race Winner is better than being the guy ninth or tenth in points in my opinion.
 
FlFlash said:
I guess I just feel like a driver who can't Win a race in 26 starts don't belong in The Chase :D

Being a Race Winner is better than being the guy ninth or tenth in points in my opinion.
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WOW! That's harsh! LOL So that would knock out Smoke, Joonyer and a bunch of others - and put Daddy's Money and Kangaroo Jack into the mix.

Crazy as that sounds, I kinda like it!!
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
I'd have to look back but has the Chase ever produced a winner outside of the top 5 going into it? For the most part those guys outside of the top 5 are there just to compete for one of the ten tables at the banquet.
Click to expand...

FenderBumper said:
It would be interesting to see, but I don't know where you can get old point totals after 26, or ranking after the reset.
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Well, I didn't have to go far to prove myself wrong. I was wrong in the first year of the Chase.

2004 Chase winner Kurt Busch, 7th place, was 293 points behind Jeff Gordon, the points leader after the first 26 races of the season. Kurt eventually went on to win the Chase by a 8 point margin over Jimmie Johnson. Jeff finished 3rd, 16 points back. Had the traditional points been used Jeff Gordon would have won his fifth Championship that year and he would have beaten Kurt Busch by 247 points. This only goes to illustrate the made for TV Chase format has made a mockery of this sport.

2004 Final Chase standings.....
1 Kurt Busch 6506
2 Jimmie Johnson 6498 -8
3 Jeff Gordon 6490 -16
4 Mark Martin 6399 -107
5 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 6368 -138
6 Tony Stewart 6326 -180
7 Ryan Newman 6180 -326
8 Matt Kenseth 6069 -437
9 Elliott Sadler 6024 -482
10 Jeremy Mayfield 6000 -506

2004 Final Traditional standings.....
1 Jeff Gordon 5042
2 Jimmie Johnson 4995 -47
3 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 4869 -173
4 Kurt Busch 4795 -247
5 Tony Stewart 4701 -341
6 Jamie McMurray 4597 -445
7 Mark Martin 4597 -445
8 Matt Kenseth 4376 -666
9 Ryan Newman 4361 -681
10 Elliott Sadler 4315 -727
 
I forgot about ancient chaseology. do you have a link to the chase comparisons? I seem to remember Gordon would have 6, JJ 3, Carl 1, and Harvick 1.
 
You cant apply the Pre-Chase points format to Chase Points seasons, the drivers and teams used an entirely differant strategy to gain points to get into The Chase. Drivers now are running two seperate points seasons one to get into the Chase and one to Win the Chase.
After they feel their safely into the Chase teams start laying back and protecting their position in the Chase standings and holding back their Best equipment for once the Chase starts. On the opposite side teams that are trying to get in start running balls to the wall and throwing their best stuff in trying to make the Chase.
There's just no way to apply the Old point system to the craziness that is involved in the Chase system.
 
FlFlash said:
You cant apply the Pre-Chase points format to Chase Points seasons, the drivers and teams used an entirely differant strategy to gain points to get into The Chase. Drivers now are running two seperate points seasons one to get into the Chase and one to Win the Chase.
After they feel their safely into the Chase teams start laying back and protecting their position in the Chase standings and holding back their Best equipment for once the Chase starts. On the opposite side teams that are trying to get in start running balls to the wall and throwing their best stuff in trying to make the Chase.
There's just no way to apply the Old point system to the craziness that is involved in the Chase system.
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I see your point, but all the chase favorites do the same thing. The problem with the chase is that you are crowning a 10 race, 10 track champ. When 4 of those tracks happen to be one drivers favorites, things get out of whack like they are now.

I don't hold a 10 track champion in the same reguard as a 20+ track champion.
 
FenderBumper said:
I see your point, but all the chase favorites do the same thing. The problem with the chase is that you are crowning a 10 race, 10 track champ. When 4 of those tracks happen to be one drivers favorites, things get out of whack like they are now.

I don't hold a 10 track champion in the same reguard as a 20+ track champion.
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Maybe there should be a points champion for the regular season and a Chase Champion for whoever wins the Chase? It's like in American Football, you have the NFC or AFC Champion and then the league champion depending on whoever wins the Super Bowl.
 
SpeedPagan said:
Maybe there should be a points champion for the regular season and a Chase Champion for whoever wins the Chase? It's like in American Football, you have the NFC or AFC Champion and then the league champion depending on whoever wins the Super Bowl.
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that has been talked about by nascar
 
SpeedPagan said:
Maybe there should be a points champion for the regular season and a Chase Champion for whoever wins the Chase? It's like in American Football, you have the NFC or AFC Champion and then the league champion depending on whoever wins the Super Bowl.
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Yep. The regular season champ should get cash, a trophy and 10 bonus points in the chase, along with first pit choice until he loses the lead.

Almost every other sport gives division champs a week off, easier schedule, home field advantage, etc. That isn't possible in racing, but being the regular season champ should come with an advantage in the playoffs.

Hell, get rid of the chase and just have some free for all, HUGE purse, non-points races to fill out the season after the champ is crowned.
 

This is why I Hate the Chase, play offs, regular season champ, resetting the feild the whole nine yards is a fabricated piece of Crap.....WTF ever happened to "The Season Champion" being the real Season Champion???
 
The regular season champ should get cash, a trophy and 10 bonus points in the chase, along with first pit choice until he loses the lead.
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:bsflag: That first pick for pit stall is earned by racing your backside off each week. The first pick is a huge advantage.

Almost every other sport gives division champs a week off, easier schedule, home field advantage, etc. That isn't possible in racing, but being the regular season champ should come with an advantage in the playoffs.
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This is not stick and ball sports, this is auto racing. We race cars to win a race or win a season. I couldn't care less if we have less fans than football or baseball or a dang puck.

Hell, get rid of the chase and just have some free for all, HUGE purse, non-points races to fill out the season after the champ is crowned
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NASCAR did this to compete with the other sports and when they started it I said I would keep an open mind. I am pretty excited about the way things are shaking out this year.
 
You cant please everybody, the system does more to reward winning than ever.
Best to enjoy the good while you can.
 
Smoke14 said:
That first pick for pit stall is earned by racing your backside off each week. The first pick is a huge advantage.
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Not quite as big as a bye week, home field advantage and easy schedule.


Smoke14 said:
This is not stick and ball sports, this is auto racing.
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Then why the stick and ball type playoff format?

Smoke14 said:
We race cars to win a race or win a season.
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...which doesn't mean anything since the season points are reset and then we race for a championship.

Smoke14 said:
I couldn't care less if we have less fans than football or baseball or a dang puck.
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...yet NASCAR did this to compete with the other sports, and now 26 races don't mean sheet.

No wonder nobody is watching.
 
Looks to me like too many people are counting on Keselowski to move into the top 10. I doubt he will even with a good run so that realisticly only leaves someone like Menard if he gets a 2nd win or Bowyer if he wins and is ahead of Hamlin.
 
Honestly, I think Jr. is going to be knocked out of The Chase.
 
wilson89 said:
Looks to me like too many people are counting on Keselowski to move into the top 10. I doubt he will even with a good run so that realisticly only leaves someone like Menard if he gets a 2nd win or Bowyer if he wins and is ahead of Hamlin.
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Betting on anyone to finish ahead of Hamlin at Richmond is taking some long odds but they'll likely by some crazy **** happening during the race.

Hamlin may also play it safe depending on what Menard and Ragan are doing so who knows.

Keselowski, on the other hand, will probably be full out to try to get bonus points for his wins as being seeded 2nd compared to 11th is a big deal.

SpeedPagan said:
Honestly, I think Jr. is going to be knocked out of The Chase.
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I think that's a long shot but even if he does make it I don't expect him to be a contender

Stewart I don't expect to be a contender either but probably will be a factor ;)
 
I think things are going to stay just as they are. The top 10 will remain the same. Keselowski and Hamlin will make it in through the wildcard spots rendering the wildcard spot useless for this season seeing as they are 11th and 12th already. On the other hand this could become a clusterf&%k of gigantic proportions and we won't know until a week from Thursday who made the Chase. :rolleyes:
 
Greg said:
You cant please everybody, the system does more to reward winning than ever.
Best to enjoy the good while you can.
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It hasn't for Keselowski.

Places 9th and 10th don't even have as many top 5's or 10's as he does.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
Keselowski and Hamlin will make it in through the wildcard spots rendering the wildcard spot useless for this season seeing as they are 11th and 12th already.
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I've been thinking exactly that, and how the wildcard guys will get screwed out of their bonus points.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
I think things are going to stay just as they are. The top 10 will remain the same. Keselowski and Hamlin will make it in through the wildcard spots rendering the wildcard spot useless for this season seeing as they are 11th and 12th already. On the other hand this could become a clusterf&%k of gigantic proportions and we won't know until a week from Thursday who made the Chase. :rolleyes:
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That's why the Chase is a huge joke, Nascar just doesn't get it, wish they would just get rid of it.
 
Sprint cup championship predictions.

I know there's one more race, but of the all competitive championship contenders seem to be set. The way I see it, Denny is in, and if Tony and/or Jr get knocked out, they'll be replaced by drivers who won't be competitive enough to challenge for the championship.

If you're into predictions, list in order the 3 drivers you feel will be 1 - 3 in points going into Homestead and how things might unfold. If you can, give some reasons why you feel that these 3 drivers will be in it to the end, and who may end up as the champ. There aren't any rules to this, so you can modify your predictions right up to the green flag at Chicagoland.

For me:

1) Gordon
2) Johnson
3) Keselowski

Why? Gordon is rejuvinated, and I can see and hear his lust for wins and a championship every week. He is sick and tired of being out shined by JJ, and he is on a mission to put an end to JJ's amazing 5 year run. IF Jimmie makes one of those mistakes that cost Gordon in a couple of races last year, I fully expect Gordon to respond the first time it's to his advantage.

Johnson is a very cool character, and that's what got him his 5th. During the chase, he never drives over his head while drivers like Edwards (2008) and Denny (2010) panick and hand him the crown. He just needs to stay away from drama with Gordon, who is racing JJ quite differently this year.

It seems to me that a cool head and not over driving have been keys to JJ's 5, and Gordon has been displaying this quality this year. The other I see with the right mental attitude is Keselowski. I think about all Kez went through last year, and he remained focused and didn't retaliate while getting that NW championship. He and Paul will win CHAMPIONSHIPS, but can they get it done so soon in their short careers? I thing that there is a very good chance they can...IF Keselowski can make the top 10 and get those 9 or even 12 bonus points. If not, he'll probably need JJ and JG to get into it a little and be in positon to take advantage.

Also rans:

Kyle Busch - Lasts a bit longer this year, but does indeed melt down shortly after losing the points lead to Johnson.

Denny Hamlin - Shows some improvement, but remains too inconsistant to be a threat.

Kurt Busch - Does great, until he doesn't. Melts down and stops useful communication with his CC.

Carl and Matt - Never get the points lead and realize that the Roush cars don't have what it takes. Carl could become a negative factor in determining the next champion.

I'm not scared. Who else isn't afraid to be totally wrong? ;)
 
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