Ricky Cravens rule of 72

Good paragraph here from that article:

While the formula is meant to show which drivers are eliminated, it does illustrate that winning the Chase is about assembling 10 outstanding races. Can you survive one bad race? Sure, if you offset that with top-5 finishes. Can you survive two bad races? Perhaps -- if you offset that with several wins, the way Tony Stewart did in 2011.
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Oooh, interesting link. Ricky is one smart guy.

FLRacingFan said:
Here's the link with the leaderboard. Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman are already eliminated. Logano, Edwards, Jr. and Bowyer are just about done as well.

http://espn.go.com/racing/nascar/story/_/id/9793641/kasey-kahne-ryan-newman-eliminated-rule-72
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Sounds about right.

reck said:
Craven should get his own on FS1. He's one of the very few who knows his stuff and backs it up too.
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Wouldnt mind seeing that for sure.
 
I like Ricky Craven and all but come on, KISS, keep it simple stupid. It's as simple as it can get at this point and has been changed more than enough. Let's try to let this Chase thing play out with a consistent format rather than change it every couple years. Personally I think it's history of changes only shows that it was a flawed idea form the start. We are now on the fourth version of this playoff system and it's only nine years old. How can this have possible been a good idea if we never seem to be satisfied with it?
 
I feel you, dp, but to be fair, I don't think Ricky is suggesting that the Chase format be changed. He's just breaking it down in a different way and trying to predict who is still in the championship hunt and who is out, because as he said in the article, you need more than consistency alone to win a championship under the current system. He actually seems to be defending the Chase here.

It was an interesting read by a smart analyst, but like any formula that tries to predict the outcome of an unpredictable sport, I'm sure it can be broken.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
I like Ricky Craven and all but come on, KISS, keep it simple stupid. It's as simple as it can get at this point and has been changed more than enough. Let's try to let this Chase thing play out with a consistent format rather than change it every couple years. Personally I think it's history of changes only shows that it was a flawed idea form the start. We are now on the fourth version of this playoff system and it's only nine years old. How can this have possible been a good idea if we never seem to be satisfied with it?
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Reality is, the chase was created for one reason. The broadcasters want a product to go up against their competitors to try and water down their football and baseball viewership. I forget who (perhaps Dustin Long), tweeted that the networks pay nascar extra to keep the races on Sunday to compete with football. The chase makes a run away champion less likely, and that means more cash for all concerned.

Unfortunately, the chase was never about better racing for the fans, it was about money.
 
FenderBumper said:
Reality is, the chase was created for one reason. The broadcasters want a product to go up against their competitors to try and water down their football and baseball viewership. I forget who (perhaps Dustin Long), tweeted that the networks pay nascar extra to keep the races on Sunday to compete with football. The chase makes a run away champion less likely, and that means more cash for all concerned.

Unfortunately, the chase was never about better racing for the fans, it was about money.
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Agree,
NFL and Nascar are no longer sports, they are businesses that are all about the money.
 
damonst@frontier said:
Agree,
NFL and Nascar are no longer sports, they are businesses that are all about the money.
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Just look at the NFL desperately trying to expand to London and now discussing expanding the playoffs to 14 teams. As if the 7th-place team in each conference actually deserves a chance to get to the Super Bowl.
 
FenderBumper said:
I forget who (perhaps Dustin Long), tweeted that the networks pay nascar extra to keep the races on Sunday to compete with football.
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I remember some NBC exec. mention something like this when they signed the new deal not too long ago. Without NFL afternoon TV rights there's not much to televise on Sundays in the late summer and in fall. I wonder what ESPN will turn to when they leave after next season.

The great irony is the sharp nosedive ratings took after 2005. The Chase has a negligible effect on TV ratings now.
 
Avg. Chase television ratings since its inception.

chasecupchart.gif
 
I dig the formula.

On the chase, I don't mind it but the Sport doesn't really need it as evidenced by the decline in ratings, although I don't think people don't watch the chase for any other reason then bad or boring racing. Unfortunately, after the quick boom period, the fanbase is not getting younger and as much as Nascar has tried, it's not really getting diverse either.

The most basic way of drawing people in would make the car in such a way that we have better racing.

Oh and not to mention better personalities instead of corporate shills.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
Yes, that came out in the divorce fight. He dumps that pile of cash on his bed, lays in it & reads his graphs in the mirror on the ceiling above the bed.
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lol When he flips the graph over and then looks at it in the mirror, it's back to a downward slope.

Brian can't do anything right.
 
Lazyking said:
I dig the formula.

On the chase, I don't mind it but the Sport doesn't really need it as evidenced by the decline in ratings, although I don't think people don't watch the chase for any other reason then bad or boring racing. Unfortunately, after the quick boom period, the fanbase is not getting younger and as much as Nascar has tried, it's not really getting diverse either.

The most basic way of drawing people in would make the car in such a way that we have better racing.

Oh and not to mention better personalities instead of corporate shills.
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nascar is not going to get diverse either. Racing not something you start playing in school, it's a way of life, and it takes years and a lot of time and money before you are a star and anyone knows who you are.
 
BOWTIE GUY said:
nascar is not going to get diverse either. Racing not something you start playing in school, it's a way of life, and it takes years and a lot of time and money before you are a star and anyone knows who you are.
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Yeah I understand that. My point is, they've tried all these different things to grow the sport when it takes years to even take hold.. When they should be focusing making the product better not worse.
 
Lazyking said:
Yeah I understand that. My point is, they've tried all these different things to grow the sport when it takes years to even take hold.. When they should be focusing making the product better not worse.
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preaching to the choir.nascar not for the masses.
 
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