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fastfordfan

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Chase Clinch scenarios for Bristol: Only three races remain in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series' 26-race regular season, and little has been decided in terms of championship hopefuls. Here's what we know right now: #18-Kyle Busch is locked into the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. That's it. Busch clinched a spot with his win at Michigan, thereby nabbing at least one of the two Wild Card spots in the 12-driver Chase. It's likely he'll soon clinch a top-10 spot, probably this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway. After race No. 26 at Richmond, the top-10 drivers in points set a portion of the 12-driver Chase field. Spots 11 and 12 go to those drivers outside the top 10 with the most wins, provided they are in the top 20. Here's what we might know after Saturday night's annual fan-favorite IRWIN Tools Night Race: Seven more drivers could join Busch in the Chase.
The "magic number" for a clinching driver after Bristol is 97. Any driver 97 points ahead of 11th place will clinch a spot in the Chase. These drivers can mathematically clinch this weekend: #48-Jimmie Johnson, #29-Kevin Harvick, #99-Carl Edwards, #17-Matt Kenseth,#24- Jeff Gordon, #39-Ryan Newman and #22-Kurt Busch. Only Busch and Johnson "control their own destiny" in terms of clinching a top-10 spot; the others need some help in the way of lower-positioned drivers having a low finish.
And finally, these drivers will lock up at least a Wild Card spot by winning this weekend: Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon and Carl Edwards.(NASCAR)(8-26-2011)
 
In real Life not just looking at the numbers these guys are in:

Kyle Busch
Jimmie Johnson
Harvick
Edwards
Kenseth
Gordon

These guys are in unless something REALLY GO'S WRONG:
Ryan Newman
Kurt Busch

These two guys are in MASSIVE DANGER of falling out:
Earnhardt Jr. - 0 Wins
Tony Stewart - 0 Wins

This guys locked in to a Wildcard:
Brad K. with 2 Wins and 12th in points

These all need a Win or a very good run plus poor runs by Earnhardt or Stewart:
D. Hamlin
G. Biffle
C. Bowyer

With another Win these guys could be in:
P. Menard
D. Ragan

And I'll throw in a Real Wilcard:
Ambrose with a Win could be a spoiler!

This is just how I see, it if you disagree or see an Error.......well it's a forum so Voice Your Opinion!!!
 
Here's the Drivers I listed rankings at the final three tracks before The Chase.

Bristol

Kyle Busch--1
J. Johnson--4
K. Harvick--23
Edwards----5
Kenseth----7
Gordon-----9
Newman----3
Kurt Busch--2
Lil E--------6
Stewart----21
Brad K.-----15
Hamlin------17
Biffle-------8
Bowyer-----25
Menard-----18
Ragan------28
Ambrose----13
 
Atlanta

Kyle Busch---11
J. Johnson---10
K. Harvick----8
Edwards-----19
Kenseth------3
Gordon-------4
Newman------9
Kurt Busch----7
Lil E----------15
Stewart------2
Brad K.-------42
Hamlin--------21
Biffle---------25
Bowyer-------14
Menard-------22
Ragan--------34
Ambrose-----20
 
Richmond

Kyle Busch----1
J. Johnson----13
K. Harvick----10
Edwards------6
Kenseth------18
Gordon-------7
Newman------4
Kurt Busch----16
Lil E----------31
Stewart------11
Brad K.-------28
Hamlin--------2
Biffle---------22
Bowyer-------3
Menard-------34
Ragan--------23
Ambrose------14
 
i would bet a huge chunk of money that kyle will not win the championship.

he has made too many enemies. and unless he has far superior equipment than everyone else and is able to drive away he will be getting no favors.

he's choked in the chase before. and i see no change in kyle's mental makeup since the 2008 collapse. it may even be worse.

jmo
 
klemmabyna said:
i would bet a huge chunk of money that kyle will not win the championship.

he has made too many enemies. and unless he has far superior equipment than everyone else and is able to drive away he will be getting no favors.

he's choked in the chase before. and i see no change in kyle's mental makeup since the 2008 collapse. it may even be worse.

jmo
Click to expand...

Kyle and team are in better shape to win the championship then they were in 2008. With that said, I'm not sure Kyle can keep his desire to win all the time in check to pull it off. He does have a few enemies on the track including one a**hole from RCR that would take Kyle out to pump up his own ego.

We'll know in a couple months.
 
FlFlash said:
This guys locked in to a Wildcard:
Brad K. with 2 Wins and 12th in points
Click to expand...

There isn't much set yet, but I disagree that Brad is safe. He's just 38 points to the good in the top 20, so one wreck could put him out of the WC. But if you go by recent performance as compared to the hopefuls, he would have a good chance of getting back into the top 20.

I think the real story could be Bowyer. If he has a good race AND Kurt or Newman wreck, Denny could be knocked out of that WC spot. If Jr, Stewart, Bowyer or Biffle win, Denny would have even more bullets to dodge the last 2 races. He could end the regular season sweating 3 guys getting another win AND worrying about 2 guys with wins dropping out of the top 10.

Denny is on thin, thin ice. That team needs to start performing, but they seem to be in defense mode. It could bite them.
 
FlFlash said:
Richmond

Kyle Busch----1
J. Johnson----13
K. Harvick----10
Edwards------6
Kenseth------18
Gordon-------7
Newman------4
Kurt Busch----16
Lil E----------31
Stewart------11
Brad K.-------28
Hamlin--------2
Biffle---------22
Bowyer-------3
Menard-------34
Ragan--------23
Ambrose------14
Click to expand...

I like numbers too, but remember one thing. Kez has been blowing away his career average finish for the last 7 or 8 tracks. I expect that trend to continue. He'll need a ton of help to make the top 10, but being top 11 or 12 legitimizes his WC.
 
FenderBumper said:
I like numbers too, but remember one thing. Kez has been blowing away his career average finish for the last 7 or 8 tracks. I expect that trend to continue. He'll need a ton of help to make the top 10, but being top 11 or 12 legitimizes his WC.
Click to expand...

Thats True the one thing about Career statistics is that if your career just started you have no statistics LOL.
If I remember correctly Brad got toke out in one of the Richmond races last year and was taken out at Atlanta so his stats are not reflective of his chances.
You also have to look at Gordons his stats are inflated because of his past his current day picture isn't quite as good.
 
As far as Brad Keselowski I'll agree he's not Technicaly "Locked in" butt as well as he's been running and as bad as a few in front of him have been I'm betting he'll make it. He's ran good at all three coming tracks even though his stat's don't show it.
 
FlFlash said:
As far as Brad Keselowski I'll agree he's not Technicaly "Locked in" butt as well as he's been running and as bad as a few in front of him have been I'm betting he'll make it. He's ran good at all three coming tracks even though his stat's don't show it.
Click to expand...

He's definately the favorite for one of thos WC's. I'm fairly sure he will make it too, but I do enjoy the fact that 3 of those last 4 spots will probably still be up for grabs at Richmond.
 
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