Much more problematic, though, is the variation in grip levels: of the circuits raced on in 2003, grip levels varied by as much as 15%, and if one includes the early sessions at Monaco in the equation, this figure rises to 24%. Naturally, working 5000km from the circuit, we can do nothing but assume an average level of grip and work from there until further information is available. For Bahrain, however, we know the grip level to be similar to that at Silverstone, which is just 1% below the average. However, to put this into perspective, a 3% variation in grip level on an average circuit can bring a change in lap time of around 1 second and just to make things worse, this parameter varies continually, even during the same day. In order to insure against this, the team conducts numerous simulations at different grip levels in order to have a bank of data at their disposal in the event of changes, so that the appropriate car set-up can be decided upon as quickly as possible.
Once that has been completed, and the car is running, we then begin running more simulations for race strategy. In fact, before making our decision on Saturday, over 1,000,000 race scenarios will run through the team's computers!
