Sizing Up The Chase To The Championship

[TonyB]

Proving once again that I'm certifiably insane, I put together some numbers for the drivers in the chase...

A quick look at where all the drivers contending for the championship stand heading into New Hampshire and how they have performed at the remaining tracks on the schedule.

Rank) Driver, Points, Behind
Comments
* average finish, races, wins, top 5s, top10s

1) Jeff Gordon, 5050, Leader
Enters the chase with 1 top 5 finish in his last 5 races.
* NHIS - 12.3 average finish, 19 races, 3 wins, 9 top5s, 11 top10s
* Dover - 9.3 average finish, 23 races, 4 wins, 11 top5s, 15 top10s
* Talladega - 14.7 average finish, 23 races, 3 wins, 10 top5s, 13 top10s
* Kansas - 6.3 average finish, 3 races, 2 wins, 3 top5s, 3 top10s
* Charlotte - 14.4 average finish, 23 races, 4 wins, 12 top5s, 14 top10s
* Martinsville - 8.4 average finish, 23 races, 5 wins, 12 top5s, 17 top10s
* Atlanta - 12.6 average finish, 24 races, 4 wins, 10 top5s, 15 top10s
* Phoenix - 9.6 average finish, 11 races, 0 wins, 4 top5s, 9 top10s
* Darlington - 13.5 average finish, 23 races, 6 wins, 11 top5s, 14 top10s
* Homestead - 11.0 average finish, 5 races, 0 wins, 2 top5s, 4 top10s

2) Jimmie Johnson, 5045, - 5
Limps into the chase with 4 finishes of 36th or worse in his last 6 races.
* NHIS - 7.4 average finish, 5 races, 2 wins, 2 top5s, 3 top10s
* Dover - 16.0 average finish, 5 races, 2 wins, 2 top5s, 3 top10s
* Talladega - 19.4 average finish, 5 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 2 top10s
* Kansas - 8.5 average finish, 2 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 2 top10s
* Charlotte - 9.5 average finish, 6 races, 2 wins, 3 top5s, 5 top10s
* Martinsville - 11.2 average finish, 5 races, 0 wins, 2 top5s, 4 top10s
* Atlanta - 15.5 average finish, 6 races, 0 wins, 3 top5s, 3 top10s
* Phoenix - 8.5 average finish, 2 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 1 top10
* Darlington - 9.2 average finish, 5 races, 1 win, 2 top5s, 4 top10s
* Homestead - 12.0 average finish, 3 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 2 top10s

3) Dale Earnhardt Jr, 5040, -10
Enters the chase with 3 top 5 finishes in his last 3 races.
* NHIS - 20.4 average finish, 10 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 3 top10s
* Dover - 15.0 average finish, 9 races, 1 win, 3 top5s, 4 top10s
* Talladega - 8.0 average finish, 9 races, 4 wins, 6 top5s, 7 top10s
* Kansas - 19.0 average finish, 3 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 1 top10
* Charlotte - 16.8 average finish, 10 races, 0 wins, 2 top5s, 5 top10s
* Martinsville - 13.2 average finish, 9 races, 0 wins, 5 top5s, 5 top10s
* Atlanta - 10.2 average finish, 10 races, 1 win, 4 top5s, 6 top10s
* Phoenix - 17.5 average finish, 4 races, 1 win, 2 top5s, 2 top10s
* Darlington - 18.1 average finish, 9 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 3 top10s
* Homestead - 18.2 average finish, 4 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 0 top10s

4) Tony Stewart, 5035, -15
Heads into the chase with 3 consecutive finishes outside the top 15.
* NHIS - 12.3 average finish, 11 races, 1 win, 6 top5s, 7 top10s
* Dover - 4.1 average finish, 11 races, 2 wins, 9 top5s, 10 top10s
* Talladega - 14.3 average finish, 11 races, 0 wins, 5 top5s, 6 top10s
* Kansas - 6.7 average finish, 3 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 3 top10s
* Charlotte - 9.5 average finish, 11 races, 1 win, 6 top5s, 8 top10s
* Martinsville - 13.9 average finish, 11 races, 1 win, 3 top5s, 6 top10s
* Atlanta - 13.9 average finish, 11 races, 1 win, 4 top5s, 6 top10s
* Phoenix - 9.2 average finish, 5 races, 1 win, 2 top5s, 3 top10s
* Darlington - 12.2 average finish, 11 races, 0 wins, 2 top5s, 6 top10s
* Homestead - 9.2 average finish, 5 races, 2 wins, 2 top5s, 3 top10s

5) Matt Kenseth, 5030, - 20
Heads to the chase with 2 consecutive finishes outside the top 20.
* NHIS - 12.6 average finish, 9 races, 0 wins, 3 top5s, 5 top10s
* Dover - 13.7 average finish, 11 races, 0 wins, 3 top5s, 6 top10s
* Talladega - 19.9 average finish, 9 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 3 top10s
* Kansas - 25.0 average finish, 3 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 1 top10
* Charlotte - 12.9 average finish, 10 races, 1 win, 4 top5s, 6 top10s
* Martinsville - 17.9 average finish, 9 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 3 top10s
* Atlanta - 15.2 average finish, 9 races, 0 wins, 2 top5s, 5 top10s
* Phoenix - 13.2 average finish, 4 races, 1 win, 2 top5s, 3 top10s
* Darlington - 21.6 average finish, 10 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 3 top10s
* Homestead - 32.8 average finish, 4 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 0 top10s

6) Elliott Sadler, 5025, -25
Sadler heads to the chase with 3 top 5 finishes and 3 finishes of 15th or worse in his last 6 races.
* NHIS - 19.7 average finish, 11 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 2 top10s
* Dover - 19.8 average finish, 11 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 1 top10
* Talladega - 28.3 average finish, 10 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 1 top10
* Kansas - 27.7average finish, 3 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 0 top10s
* Charlotte - 26.2 average finish, 12 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 1 top10
* Martinsville - 23.5 average finish, 11 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 1 top10
* Atlanta - 22.5 average finish, 11 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 1 top10
* Phoenix - 24.0 average finish, 5 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 1 top10
* Darlington - 15.3 average finish, 11 races, 0 wins, 2 top5s, 4 top10s
* Homestead - 22.4 average finish, 5 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 1 top10

7) Kurt Busch, 5020, -30
Heads to the chase with 6 consecutive top 15 finishes.
* NHIS - 14.3 average finish, 7 races, 1 win, 2 top5s, 3 top10s
* Dover - 22.8 average finish, 8 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 1 top10
* Talladega - 14.3 average finish, 7 races, 0 wins, 3 top5s, 4 top10s
* Kansas - 26.7 average finish, 3 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 1 top10
* Charlotte - 19.6 average finish, 8 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 0 top10s
* Martinsville - 24.2 average finish, 8 races, 1 win, 1 top5, 2 top10s
* Atlanta - 16.9 average finish, 7 races, 1 win, 1 top5, 3 top10s
* Phoenix - 15.2 average finish, 4 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 2 top10s
* Darlington - 17.9 average finish, 7 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 3 top10s
* Homestead - 19.8 average finish, 4 races, 1 win, 1 top5, 1 top10

8) Mark Martin, 5015, -35
Mark finished in the top 5 in 4 of his last 5 ( and 5 of his last 7)races.
* NHIS - 11.2 average finish, 19 races, 0 wins, 7 top5s, 11 top10s
* Dover - 14.0 average finish, 36 races, 4 wins, 16 top5s, 21 top10s
* Talladega - 14.0 average finish, 37 races, 2 wins, 10 top5s, 21 top10s
* Kansas - 17.0 average finish, 3 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 1 top10
* Charlotte - 16.2 average finish, 39 races, 4 wins, 15 top5s, 19 top10s
* Martinsville - 12.9 average finish, 37 races, 2 wins, 10 top5s, 20 top10s
* Atlanta - 17.1 average finish, 37 races, 2 wins, 9 top5s, 17 top10s
* Phoenix - 8.2 average finish, 16 races, 1 win, 8 top5s, 13 top10s
* Darlington - 12.7 average finish, 37 races, 1 win, 14 top5s, 22 top10s
* Homestead - 13.6 average finish, 5 races, 0 wins, 3 top5s, 3 top10s

9) Jeremy Mayfield, 5010, -40
Jeremey had 7 top 11 finishes in his last 9 races.
* NHIS - 25.2 average finish, 17 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 2 top10s
* Dover - 19.4 average finish, 20 races, 0 wins, 4 top5s, 6 top10s
* Talladega - 23.3 average finish, 20 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 1 top10
* Kansas - 16.0 average finish, 3 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 2 top10s
* Charlotte - 22.3 average finish, 21 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 6 top10s
* Martinsville - 22.4 average finish, 18 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 4 top10s
* Atlanta - 21.2 average finish, 17 races, 0 wins, 4 top5s, 5 top10s
* Phoenix - 28.4 average finish, 9 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 1 top10
* Darlington - 18.4 average finish, 20 races, 0 wins, 5 top5s, 7 top10s
* Homestead - 13.5 average finish, 4 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 2 top10s

10) Ryan Newman, 5005, -45
Mr. Friday has outisde the top 20 twice all year.
* NHIS - 4.4 average finish, 5 races, 1 win, 4 top5s, 5 top10s
* Dover - 7.6 average finish, 5 races, 2 wins, 3 top5s, 4 top10s
* Talladega - 20.8 average finish, 5 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 2 top10s
* Kansas - 1.7 average finish, 3 races, 1 win, 3 top5s, 3 top10s
* Charlotte - 21.9 average finish, 7 races, 0 wins, 2 top5s, 3 top10s
* Martinsville - 20.8 average finish, 5 races, 0 wins, 2 top5s, 2 top10s
* Atlanta - 12.8 average finish, 5 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 4 top10s
* Phoenix - 25.5 average finish, 5 races, 0 wins, 1 top5, 4 top10s
* Darlington - 9.4 average finish, 5 races, 0 wins, 3 top5s, 3 top10s
* Homestead - 21.5 average finish, 2 races, 0 wins, 0 top5s, 1 top10

 

[DE_Wrangler_2]

Interesting numbers. Not too sure what they all tell me.........well, that's not true!! It tells me "it's anyone in the Chase for the Championship to win it all"!!!

This is going to be fun!!

 

[TexasRaceLady]

TonyB, you have entirely too much time on your hands.

 

[24thunder]

Here are the average finishes by each "chase" driver over the final 10 races:

11.21 Jeff Gordon
11.72 Jimmie Johnson
15.64 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
10.53 T.Stewart
18.48 Matt Kenseth
22.94 Elliott Sadler
19.17 Kurt Busch
13.69 Mark Martin
21.01 Jeremy Mayfield
14.64 Ryan Newman

 

[muggle not]

There is little doubt that "team play" will be involved in the playoffs for the championship. The question is, to what extent will they go.

 

[EatMorePossum]

In Sadler's defense, most of those career average finishes were in junk next to what he's in now.

I got it all figured out. Sadler's gonna start the races, fade back, and stay out of everybody's way. Then when they get wrecked and finish 30th, he can be 21st two laps down and still win this thing!





Or somethin' like that... :lol:

 

[TonyB]

Originally posted by EatMorePossum@Sep 16 2004, 12:12 PM
I got it all figured out.  Sadler's gonna start the races, fade back, and stay out of everybody's way.  Then when they get wrecked and finish 30th, he can be 21st two laps down and still win this thing!

Have you been watching Days of Thunder again?

 

[TonyB]

Originally posted by TexasRaceLady@Sep 13 2004, 02:20 PM
TonyB, you have entirely too much time on your hands.

nah... I just know things....

 

[barelypure]

I suppose that if you were going to make a case for 1 driver or another the #s need to reflect the same period of time. Say the last 3-4 years. Even then JJ and Lil'E may be under represented as they should have better finishes as their career ages. Still there doesn't appear to be a clear favorite from those #s.