So who will be the first Nextel Cup Champion?

T

TonyB

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Danger. This a warning. This is a statistical analysis. If you don't like math, numbers, and anaylizing them, then you should run away as fast as possible.


So who will be the first Nextel Cup Champion?
The heck if I know, but a look at the past champions could shed some light as to who may win it.

The current points system has been effect since 1975. Since the points systems used before then differ greatly from the current system, will stick to analizing the champions crowned under this system.

Let's look at how the Cup championed finished points wise in the year before he won the championship. We will actually start with 1976 since the 1975 champion (Richard Petty) raced the 1974 season under a different poitns system.

If we assume that Kenseth will win the championship in 2003, then there have been 28 championship under the current system where the current system was in effect the prior year as well.

7 times the Cup champion was the champion the year before.
7 times the Cup champion finished 2nd the year before.
1 time the Cup champion finished 3rd the year before.
0 times the Cup champion finished 4th the year before.
3 times the Cup champion finished 5th the year before.
2 times the Cup champion finished 6th the year before.
1 times the Cup champion finished 7th the year before.
3 times the Cup champion finished 8th the year before.
2 times the Cup champion finished 9th the year before.
0 times the Cup champion finished 10th the year before.
0 times the Cup champion finished 11th the year before.
1 times the Cup champion finished 12th the year before.
1 times the Cup champion finished 13th the year before.
0 times the Cup champion finished 14th or worse the year before.

So...
25% of the time we have had a repeat champion.
50% of the time the champion finished 1st or 2nd the prior year.
64% of the time the champion finished in the top 5 the prior year.
93% of the time the champion finished in the top 9 in the prior year.

The furthest back to wint he championship was 13th palce Alan Kulwicki (1992 Champ.)
Oddly enough the 2 champs who came from out of the top 10 to win were in back to back years as Dale Earnhardt was the 1993 Championship after finishing 12th in 1992.

....

I looked it up so you wouldn't have to.... and because I am probably close to be criminally insane...

Now that I have the 1975 points standings in an excel file, I will most likely also analyze what the championship standings would have been if 10, 15, 25 or 50 more points were awarded the winner... Probably will do that next weeked...
 
I just totaled it up, and for the listed champions, their average points finish the year prior was 4.46. Another thing I'm going to look into is where the champions have finished the year after winning the title (not counting Kulwicki).

Another interesting note was that Dale Earnhardt's 12th-place finish in 1992 was sandwiched between a pair of back-to-back titles.
 
Okay, here's how the champions under the current point system have fared in their attempts to repeat. It uses the same guidelines as TonyB did, except I didn't count Alan Kulwicki in it, making it a 27-year analysis. The current defender, Tony Stewart, is fairly solidly in 7th place with little chance of moving in either direction, so I used that spot.

7 times the champion has successfully defended the cup.
5 times they have finished 2nd.
1 time they have finished 3rd.
4 times they have finished 4th.
0 times they have finished 5th.
6 times they have finished 6th.
3 times they have finished 7th.
They have never finished 8th-11th.
1 time they have finished 12th.

So:
26% of the champions have successfully repeated.
44% have finished 1st or 2nd.
63% have finished in the top 5.
96% have finished in the top 7.
The average finish of a defending champ is 3.89.

Therefore, based on this and the previous analysis, look for next year's champion to come out of the top-5 this year, and for Matt to make another run at it. But then again, you know what they say: there are lies, there are damn lies, and there are statistics. And I still refuse to predict a champ.
 
Thanks for doing that. I wasn't going to because of Kulwicki, but I still think it illustrates that, when it comes to talkign about a driver who wins the championship, there really aren't that many radical swing year-to-year.

The rest of the top 10 is a different story, but I'll try to get around to that analisys once the season is over.
 
That is very interesting in deed. Champs seem to get the job done year in and year out. One thing that I'd love to see either of you do is this with the runner up position. We fans never seem to remember much about the brides maids, but it seems to me that I've seen the runner up falter quite often the following year.
 
Originally posted by buckaroo@Nov 9 2003, 11:37 AM
That is very interesting in deed. Champs seem to get the job done year in and year out. One thing that I'd love to see either of you do is this with the runner up position. We fans never seem to remember much about the brides maids, but it seems to me that I've seen the runner up falter quite often the following year.
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All my stuff is at work, but I can tell you that the swings involved with the runners up are indeed more radical than with the champion.

The runner up tends to come from further back and go further back.

I'll look up the exact numbers tomorrow.
 
Ya'll have way too much time on your hands! But glad you do! :D Interesting stuff.
 
Well, I stand corrected as to where the runner-up goes to

Where the runner up finishes the year after he was runner-up
7 times he was champion
2 times he was 2nd place
5 times he was 3rd place
4 times he was 4th place
2 times he was 5th place
3 times he was 6th place
1 time he was 7th place
1 time he was 8th place
0 times he was 9th -23rd place
1 time he was 24th (cale Yarborough only ran a partial schedule in 1981)

Then, of course, Dale Earnhardt was 2nd in 2000 and isn't considered in these stats.
The 2002 runner up was Mark Martin. He is currently 16th in points. He will have the worst points finish of any runner up who ran the full schedule the following year.


Hopefully this afternoon I will be able to get to where they came from.
 
Okay. Now the flip-side. Where did the runners-up finish the year before they finished runner-up?

5 times they were the Champion the year before.
2 times they were second.
7 times they were 3rd place.
2 times they were 4th place.
1 time they were 5th place.
3 times they were 6th place.
3 times they were 7th place.
1 time they were 8th place.
0 times they were 9th or 10th.
1 time they were 11th.
1 time they were 12th.
1 time they were 13th.


So my first instinct about more radical swings is proven false.

As a group Champions and 2nd place finishers have been fairly consistent.

This year the odds are that Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr, or Ryan Newman will finish 2nd. They finished 5th, 11th, and 6th last year.
Very minor chance that Jeff Gordon could finish second. Gordon finished 4th last year.
 
Here's My analysis,Jeff Gordon will be the Champion in 2004,He's been there before :lol: :D
 
Originally posted by 24thunder@Nov 10 2003, 07:28 PM
Here's My analysis,Jeff Gordon will be the Champion in 2004,He's been there before :lol: :D
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Now why am I not surprised with your pic 24Thunder :D
 
Originally posted by nascar20+Nov 10 2003, 09:19 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (nascar20 @ Nov 10 2003, 09:19 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin--24thunder@Nov 10 2003, 07:28 PM
Here's My analysis,Jeff Gordon will be the Champion in 2004,He's been there before :lol:&nbsp; :D
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Now why am I not surprised with your pic 24Thunder :D [/b][/quote]
uh-oh,busted :lol: :lol: :D Everyone has Their own wish list,right? :D
 
Originally posted by 24thunder@Nov 11 2003, 11:26 AM
uh-oh,busted :lol: :lol: :D Everyone has Their own wish list,right? :D
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Well, my WISH list would be for Ricky Rudd to win the championship....

Since that is HIGHLY unlikely (that's the politically correct way to say "bats chance in hell"), I'll settle for analyzing the historical data and trying to draw conclusions from it.
 
Originally posted by TonyB+Nov 11 2003, 12:30 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (TonyB @ Nov 11 2003, 12:30 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin--24thunder@Nov 11 2003, 11:26 AM
uh-oh,busted :lol:&nbsp; :lol:&nbsp; :D Everyone has Their own wish list,right? :D
Click to expand...
Well, my WISH list would be for Ricky Rudd to win the championship....

Since that is HIGHLY unlikely (that's the politically correct way to say "bats chance in hell"), I'll settle for analyzing the historical data and trying to draw conclusions from it. [/b][/quote]
That would be great to see,also Mark Martin after so many runner-up Title chases,IMO Mark Martin is the most deserving of a Cup of the non-Cup winning drivers ;)
 
Jeff Gordon is always good at winning the 1sts of everything so he will be a heavy favorite heading into 2004. But I'm not that big a believer in statistics really.

However, the competition is alot harder now and to even get 1 Cup championship is a difficult task according to most drivers statements. I'm going to throw out Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. as championship contenders.
 
Originally posted by Coffee Warlord@Nov 13 2003, 01:32 AM
Jeff Gordon is always good at winning the 1sts of everything so he will be a heavy favorite heading into 2004. But I'm not that big a believer in statistics really.

However, the competition is alot harder now and to even get 1 Cup championship is a difficult task according to most drivers statements. I'm going to throw out Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. as championship contenders.
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Coffee is on to something there...

So many of those teams were picking up steam and performing as good if not better than the 17 team. Any of those guys could be champs next year (maybe minus Kevin...too inconsistant IMHO)...

That's why I love racing! THere are so many factors in getting to victory lane and so many excuses why is didn't happen! It really is anybody's ballgame! (Well most anybody's.... :lol: )
 
Originally posted by Splunge+Nov 13 2003, 08:11 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Splunge @ Nov 13 2003, 08:11 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin--Coffee Warlord@Nov 13 2003, 01:32 AM
Jeff Gordon is always good at winning the 1sts of everything so he will be a heavy favorite heading into 2004. But I'm not that big a believer in statistics really.

However, the competition is alot harder now and to even get 1 Cup championship is a difficult task according to most drivers statements. I'm going to throw out Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. as championship contenders.
Click to expand...
Coffee is on to something there...

So many of those teams were picking up steam and performing as good if not better than the 17 team. Any of those guys could be champs next year (maybe minus Kevin...too inconsistant IMHO)...

That's why I love racing! THere are so many factors in getting to victory lane and so many excuses why is didn't happen! It really is anybody's ballgame! (Well most anybody's.... :lol: ) [/b][/quote]
Well said.At time though it seems that NASCAR helps determine the Champion in some years,JMO.
 
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