Speed Wars... One Clear Leader After 9 Races of 2019

LewTheShoe

LewTheShoe

Seeking Skill-based Meritocracy... More HP Less DF
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In Cup racing, being faster than everyone else on race day is no guarantee of victory, but it certainly is a nice attribute to have. Statistically speaking, being the fastest guy in any given race associates with winning that race 39.8% of the time. A win rate of ~40% for the fastest guy shows just how tough it is to win Cup races. These are very long races with numerous pit stops, and a lot of stuff can go wrong. Often conditions change significantly between the green flag and the checkers. The fields are deep in top quality teams, and the performance gaps tend to be small relative to other racing series. (BTW, that 39.8% stat covers all Cup races from 2005 - when loop data became available - through 2018... over 500 races.)

MotorsportsAnalytics.com compiles and tracks a stat they call "central speed ranking," a measure of green-flag lap times versus competition in each quarter of each race, adjusted to omit crash-damage aberrations. Below are the 2019 central speed rankings through 9 races, 25% of the season.

1 Joe Gibbs/18 = 3.11
2 Penske/22 = 5.11
3 Stewart-Haas/4 = 5.67
4 Penske/2 = 6.50
5 Joe Gibbs/19 = 8.22
6 Joe Gibbs/11 = 8.89
7 Penske/12 = 8.89
8 Stewart-Haas/14 = 9.25
9 Stewart-Haas/10 = 10.00
10 Hendrick/9 = 10.22
11 Chip Ganassi/1 = 11.11
12 Stewart-Haas/41 = 11.78
13 Chip Ganassi/42 = 12.33
14 Joe Gibbs/20 = 14.13
15 Hendrick/48 = 14.44
16 Hendrick/88 = 16.22
17 Hendrick/24 = 16.33
18 Richard Childress/3 = 16.89
19 Wood Brothers/21 = 17.67
20 Roush Fenway/17 = 18.56
21 Roush Fenway/6 = 19.67
22 Leavine Family/95 = 20.33
23 JTG-Daugherty/37 = 21.00
24 Richard Childress/8 = 21.89
25 Germain/13 = 23.44
26 JTG-Daugherty/47 = 23.44
27 Richard Petty/43 = 24.44
28 Front Row/34 = 26.33
29 Front Row/38 = 26.78
30 Front Row/36 = 29.89

Last year, the much hyped "Big 3" was really just a "Big 2" in terms of central speed... Harvick was neck-and-neck with Kyle Busch at one and two, then a really large gap, followed by Truex, Kurt Busch, Chase, Brad K and the rest. One and two were way faster than the tightly-grouped herd behind, in the full year of 2018.

This year, through just 9 races, it looks like #18/Kyle Busch has a large gap in speed over the three fastest Fords (Logano, Harvick, Kez), then another gap to the rest. It should be interesting to see who comes forward to join the fray at the front of the speed wars.
 
Ain't no denying the #18 is the man to beat in the Cup garage. Love him or hate him. He's good as it gets right now. I wonder where the #9 would stack up if he were in a Ford? He cracked the top 10 in a Chevy. And everyone knows the Chevys are lacking. Who knows?
 
Interesting data, thank you for sharing it. What leaps out at me are the exceptions to the similarity in performance among cars from the same organization

1. The speed of the two Ganassi cars is surprisingly similar given the disparate results. Looking at this chart, I would argue that Kurt Busch is perhaps getting more out of his cars than anyone else.

2. The #9 is notably outperforming the other three Hendrick cars. Though their overall standing shows where they are as an organization currently: an upper mid-pack team.

3. The #20 is definitely lagging behind the other three JGR cars not just in results, but speed as well. The #41 is somewhat behind the other SHR cars as well.

4. The #3 is a ways ahead of the other RCR affiliated cars.

5. The #95 will have to get a lot better to become a useful satellite team to serve the glut of Toyota drivers.

I also wonder since you have data going back to 2005 if cars from the same teams were as similar in pace as they are today or if there were greater gaps?
 
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AndyMarquisLive said:
Kyle Busch has the best car, the best crew and is hands down the best driver. Only cars that have anything for him are the Penske duo of Brad and Joey. If the other teams don't catch up, Kyle's likely to blow this whole season out.
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Kyle Busch sometimes has a good car, he usually finds a way to make it better during a race.
 
gnomesayin said:
I also wonder since you have data going back to 2005 if cars from the same teams were as similar in pace as they are today or if there were greater gaps?
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Loop data exists back to 2005, but I don't have access to it, nor do I have "central speed ranking" prior to 2018. After Homestead last year, Motorsports Analytics publisher David Smith wrote, "Since the inception of scoring loops, a span of 503 races at the NASCAR Cup Series level, the fastest car in a given race was victorious exactly 200 times. That’s a rate of around 40 percent." Smith has previously cited that 40% number numerous times going back some years, so I gather it has remained pretty consistent as new races have been added to the data. But no speed rankings per car, or per driver, have been published to answer your question.

My guess would be that 2019 and 2018 are somewhat non-representative of the longer history... because the Chevy teams are missing from the top and are grouped together in the mid-field since the Camaro debut in 2018. Also I expect 2019 results to get more jumbled up as we get further into the season. That definitely happened last year.

The somewhat centerpiece stat of Motorsport Analytics is Production in Equal Equipment Rating (PEER). This proprietary algorithm often shows substantial disparity between teammates, and also sometimes differs markedly from media (and discussion forum) conventional wisdom. It's hard for me to discuss PEER or defend it because the formula is secret. I've told Smith how ridiculous that is, but he won't budge.

FWIW, Kurt Busch is ranked quite a bit higher than Larson in PEER after 9 races, but that sample size is too small to be considered declarative. Also, Erik Jones is top-10 in PEER; Daniel Suarez is not; and Ty Dillon ranks ahead of his brother Austin. I'm going to wait at least until week 26 before delving further into PEER.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
Kyle Busch has the best car, the best crew and is hands down the best driver.
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David Smith currently ranks Kyle Busch at the top of his 2019 PEER calculation, but it's only 9 races so really not worth discussing. The highest rated drivers in prior years are...

2018 Harvick
2017 Truex
2016 Harvick
2015 Logano
2014 Logano
2013 Johnson
2012 Johnson
2011 Edwards
2010 Harvick
2009 Johnson
2008 Edwards
2007 Gordon
2006 Stewart
2005 Stewart
2004 Johnson
2003 Newman

My gut doesn't agree with some of those, but David Smith has been professionally analyzing data - distinctly different from gut feel - for several decades. He is regarded as NASCAR's sabermetrics guru... and I respect that.

A request to all members... I hope we can avoid having this thread about 2019 speed rankings devolve into yet another chain of driver-centric smack talk... please.
 
LewTheShoe said:
David Smith currently ranks Kyle Busch at the top of his 2019 PEER calculation, but it's only 9 races so really not worth discussing. The highest rated drivers in prior years are...

2018 Harvick
2017 Truex
2016 Harvick
2015 Logano
2014 Logano
2013 Johnson
2012 Johnson
2011 Edwards
2010 Harvick
2009 Johnson
2008 Edwards
2007 Gordon
2006 Stewart
2005 Stewart
2004 Johnson
2003 Newman

My gut doesn't agree with some of those, but David Smith has been professionally analyzing data - distinctly different from gut feel - for several decades. He is regarded as NASCAR's sabermetrics guru... and I respect that.

A request to all members... I hope we can avoid having this thread about 2019 speed rankings devolve into yet another chain of driver-centric smack talk... please.
Click to expand...



Harvick was cheating, probably in 2016 as well as 2018
 
LewTheShoe said:
David Smith currently ranks Kyle Busch at the top of his 2019 PEER calculation, but it's only 9 races so really not worth discussing. The highest rated drivers in prior years are...

2018 Harvick
2017 Truex
2016 Harvick
2015 Logano
2014 Logano
2013 Johnson
2012 Johnson
2011 Edwards
2010 Harvick
2009 Johnson
2008 Edwards
2007 Gordon
2006 Stewart
2005 Stewart
2004 Johnson
2003 Newman

My gut doesn't agree with some of those, but David Smith has been professionally analyzing data - distinctly different from gut feel - for several decades. He is regarded as NASCAR's sabermetrics guru... and I respect that.
Click to expand...

Wow Jimmie only 4 times on this list. His 10 win season in 2007, looking at it, I probably have to agree, barely 2nd fastest car to Jeff who had 7 poles and 30 top 10s, up the chart on avg finish compared to the 48. It's neck and neck though. It was those 2 on speed, then everyone else that year.
 
LewTheShoe said:
In Cup racing, being faster than everyone else on race day is no guarantee of victory, but it certainly is a nice attribute to have. Statistically speaking, being the fastest guy in any given race associates with winning that race 39.8% of the time. A win rate of ~40% for the fastest guy shows just how tough it is to win Cup races. These are very long races with numerous pit stops, and a lot of stuff can go wrong. Often conditions change significantly between the green flag and the checkers. The fields are deep in top quality teams, and the performance gaps tend to be small relative to other racing series. (BTW, that 39.8% stat covers all Cup races from 2005 - when loop data became available - through 2018... over 500 races.)

MotorsportsAnalytics.com compiles and tracks a stat they call "central speed ranking," a measure of green-flag lap times versus competition in each quarter of each race, adjusted to omit crash-damage aberrations. Below are the 2019 central speed rankings through 9 races, 25% of the season.

1 Joe Gibbs/18 = 3.11
2 Penske/22 = 5.11
3 Stewart-Haas/4 = 5.67
4 Penske/2 = 6.50
5 Joe Gibbs/19 = 8.22
6 Joe Gibbs/11 = 8.89
7 Penske/12 = 8.89
8 Stewart-Haas/14 = 9.25
9 Stewart-Haas/10 = 10.00
10 Hendrick/9 = 10.22
11 Chip Ganassi/1 = 11.11
12 Stewart-Haas/41 = 11.78
13 Chip Ganassi/42 = 12.33
14 Joe Gibbs/20 = 14.13
15 Hendrick/48 = 14.44
16 Hendrick/88 = 16.22
17 Hendrick/24 = 16.33
18 Richard Childress/3 = 16.89
19 Wood Brothers/21 = 17.67
20 Roush Fenway/17 = 18.56
21 Roush Fenway/6 = 19.67
22 Leavine Family/95 = 20.33
23 JTG-Daugherty/37 = 21.00
24 Richard Childress/8 = 21.89
25 Germain/13 = 23.44
26 JTG-Daugherty/47 = 23.44
27 Richard Petty/43 = 24.44
28 Front Row/34 = 26.33
29 Front Row/38 = 26.78
30 Front Row/36 = 29.89

Last year, the much hyped "Big 3" was really just a "Big 2" in terms of central speed... Harvick was neck-and-neck with Kyle Busch at one and two, then a really large gap, followed by Truex, Kurt Busch, Chase, Brad K and the rest. One and two were way faster than the tightly-grouped herd behind, in the full year of 2018.

This year, through just 9 races, it looks like #18/Kyle Busch has a large gap in speed over the three fastest Fords (Logano, Harvick, Kez), then another gap to the rest. It should be interesting to see who comes forward to join the fray at the front of the speed wars.
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I am surprised Harvick is that far up at #3. Unless it's factoring in qualifying, I don't get that one. He was fast at Bristol failed tech, fast early at Atlanta Vegas and Richmond then fell back to decent finishes, really out to lunch everywhere else he should have been strong though like Phoenix Fontana and Texas.
 
Man, I wish Harvick could trade the 2014 lottery championship for his 2010 and 2016 legitimately earned championships. That 2010 championship would have been huge for RCR. Nobody brought the week to week speed throughout that season like they did.
 
Switchback said:
Man, I wish Harvick could trade the 2014 lottery championship for his 2010 and 2016 legitimately earned championships. That 2010 championship would have been huge for RCR. Nobody brought the week to week speed throughout that season like they did.
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That is one of the largest discrepancies in Avg start to Avg finish I have ever seen for a contender. Struggle bus in qualifying, rocketship in racetrim.
 
Switchback said:
Man, I wish Harvick could trade the 2014 lottery championship for his 2010 and 2016 legitimately earned championships.
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You are misinterpreting what the PEER rankings are. They don't claim to show who won the championship, nor who deserved it. It's roughly analogous to the Total Quarterback Rating that ESPN developed for the NFL. No one claims the team with the highest rated quarterback is automatically the champion of the NFL.

There are many other factors in winning races and championships other than what PEER attempts to measure.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
Kyle Busch has the best car, the best crew and is hands down the best driver. Only cars that have anything for him are the Penske duo of Brad and Joey. If the other teams don't catch up, Kyle's likely to blow this whole season out.
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I agree.

Also surprising is the 48, 88, 6 compared to points.
 
LewTheShoe said:
You are misinterpreting what the PEER rankings are. They don't claim to show who won the championship, nor who deserved it. It's roughly analogous to the Total Quarterback Rating that ESPN developed for the NFL. No one claims the team with the highest rated quarterback is automatically the champion of the NFL.

There are many other factors in winning races and championships other than what PEER attempts to measure.
Click to expand...

He made the most points both those years, I wasn't going off these rankings. They were just a reminder.
 
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