Sprint Cup Chase predictions. How will it all end?

FenderBumper

FenderBumper

The "good old days" ??
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I know there's one more race, but of the all competitive championship contenders seem to be set. The way I see it, Denny is in, and if Tony and/or Jr get knocked out, they'll be replaced by drivers who won't be competitive enough to challenge for the championship.

If you're into predictions, list in order the 3 drivers you feel will be 1 - 3 in points going into Homestead and how things might unfold. If you can, give some reasons why you feel that these 3 drivers will be in it to the end, and who may end up as the champ. There aren't any rules to this, so you can modify your predictions right up to the green flag at Chicagoland.

For me:

1) Gordon
2) Johnson
3) Keselowski

Why? Gordon is rejuvinated, and I can see and hear his lust for wins and a championship every week. He is sick and tired of being out shined by JJ, and he is on a mission to put an end to JJ's amazing 5 year run. IF Jimmie makes one of those mistakes that cost Gordon in a couple of races last year, I fully expect Gordon to respond the first time it's to his advantage.

Johnson is a very cool character, and that's what got him his 5th. During the chase, he never drives over his head while drivers like Edwards (2008) and Denny (2010) panick and hand him the crown. He just needs to stay away from drama with Gordon, who is racing JJ quite differently this year.

It seems to me that a cool head and not over driving have been keys to JJ's 5, and Gordon has been displaying this quality this year. The other I see with the right mental attitude is Keselowski. I think about all Kez went through last year, and he remained focused and didn't retaliate while getting that NW championship. He and Paul will win CHAMPIONSHIPS, but can they get it done so soon in their short careers? I thing that there is a very good chance they can...IF Keselowski can make the top 10 and get those 9 or even 12 bonus points. If not, he'll probably need JJ and JG to get into it a little and be in positon to take advantage.

Also rans:

Kyle Busch - Lasts a bit longer this year, but does indeed melt down shortly after losing the points lead to Johnson.

Denny Hamlin - Shows some improvement, but remains too inconsistant to be a threat.

Kurt Busch - Does great, until he doesn't. Melts down and stops useful communication with his CC.

Carl and Matt - Never get the points lead and realize that the Roush cars don't have what it takes. Carl could become a negative factor in determining the next champion.

I'm not scared. Who else isn't afraid to be totally wrong?
 
No clue as to which mod moved this to a SLIGHTLY related thread, but whoever it was, give me a break. Putting a championship prediction thread into a 'who makes the chase' thread is surely an error.
 
Simple. There's Jimmie Johnson and then there is what is know as the 'field' Looking back at the stats of the Chase contenders and how they perform my money has to be placed on the clear favorite, Jimmie Johnson. He has an average finish of 8.1 in the Chase races and nobody else comes close.

Jeff Gordon on a roll right now and has been scoring more points than anyone as of late. He's been there, done that and he's ready to plow over the field. You can see his confidence build every week.

Kyle Busch has matured quite a bit over time and he may just be there. These bonus points for the wins are going to give him a great start.

Carl Edwards is strong over these final 10 tracks. Though last year he was the hottest thing leading into the Chase and then fell back.

Kenseth, he's so quiet he may just be there in the end.

Harvick, where's he at again? I haven't heard much from him lately.

Kurt Busch, he'll blow up and his season will be over.

Newman, another quiet one.

Earnhardt & Stewart. Well, they didn't exactly back into this Chase as some may state. I know Jr. has been in the top 10 for the past 20 weeks. Who knows, stranger things have happened. OK, maybe not that strange but you get the idea.

Keselowski & Hamlin have been going in two different directions. I think Hamlin will continue in his direction but Keselowski will sorely miss his bonus point that he would have gotten by cracking the top 10.

My picks..... The guys that have been there all season. It is a toss up for me between Johnson and Gordon. Johnson's always there and Gordon is ready for revenge. Revenge is a dish best served cold, what ever the heck that means.

Gordon
Johnson
Edwards

There's a reason these guys are already up in the top of the standings and I think that trend will continue.
 
If the the old style, win at any cost, aggessive Jeff Gordon emerges, Johnson wont kow what hit him.

Don't think that Stewart wouldn't like see all the gloves come off either ;)
 
I don't know what's happening at RCR, but they have been way off for a long time. Harvick's opportunistic driving is making them look better than they really are.

How can Hendrick Chevys dominate while most of the others are just good or lousy? It shows the strength of HMS. Any driver would take a big paycut to get in one of those rides.
 
Prognostications are just that - guesses. It's like asking, "Who's gonna win the StupidBowl?". But I love them none the less.

So here are my picks in order:

I thought that Pee Wee would win the CUP last year, and he had a decent shot going in. But we all know who prevailed - and why they prevailed. But with another year of experience, a very good racecar every week (almost anyway), a refined approach and his desire to make everyone go BOOOOO! he will show that he has what it takes to win the big one. IMO, KyBu will gain himself and Toyota their first CUP Championship.

It's hard to say that Jimmie-Chad isn't the favorite going in. While his season hasn't been remarkable, all you have to do is look at the points (as they stand right now) to realize that the 48 will be a serious threat to win it all again. But they continue to be plagued by issues on Pit Road and that could spell disaster for them this year (if you consider second place disasterous, that is).

The 24 will certainly be a bigger factor than in the recent past, but Jeff always seems to have one or two spectacular crashes during the season and he just may be due for another - soon. He could pass the 48 for best-of-class competition but he won't be able to overcome the bonus point differential.

KEZ is a guy with an incredible upside, but it's been proven true many times over that before you win a Championship, you first have to learn what it's like to lose one.

I really don't see anybody else being a serious contender - but it's gonna be interesting to see how it plays out!
 
Johnson, Gordon, and Edwards will fight it out until the end. I expect one other driver to get hot early and me in that mix, but slip away by the final 2-3 races.
 
I think we are gonig to see one of the closest Chase races in history by far! I think the top three thoughout the whole thing will be:

Gordon
Johnson
Kyle Busch

With these three trading things around a little bit. However, in my opinion it is too early to tell exactly who will win it. Whoever it is will have to WIN Races in the chase, and I mean more than one. The only way to give yourself room for a bad race is to win a couple in my opinion.

However, I still say Johnson is the favorite to win it all unless someone can out perform him and out WIN him in the chase.
 
It's going to come down to Johnson and Jeffy, I don't see any of the other guys having the hang time to stay with these two.
 
i think kenseth and edwards are the only two with a shot at breaking jimmie's streak.

would love to see keselowski blow up the chase from a wild card spot.

kyle/harvick: hope one is in and one is out by the time the series gets to martinsville.

any of stewart/gordon/earnhardt staying in contention til the end should bring back some messageboard posters.
 
My predictions

1. #24 Jeff Gordon - I think will get it done this year. He is on a hot streak right as the chase begins

2. #2 Brad Kesolowski - He has been on a great run all summer but since this is his first chase I dont think he will win

3. #48 Jimmie Johnson - Not having the best of seasons with only 1 win but he is good at all the races in the chase and somehow always wins so you cant count him out.

4. #29 Kevin Harvick - Looking very strong right but still has occasional races he cant finish top 10 in.

5. #99 Carl Edwards - Leads alot of laps and is very consistant he could be a possibility.

6. #22 Kurt Busch - He can run strong but finishes are not always consistant

7. #18 Kyle Busch - He can win races but I dont see him having enough patience to but 10 consistant races together.

8. #17 Matt Kenseth - Is very consistant about getting top 10's but that will not be good enough for a championship

9. #39 Ryan Newman - Has some race tracks coming up that favor him but I dont think either of the SHR cars are in position to win a championship.

10. #14 Tony Stewart - Pretty much the same as Newman

11. #11 Denny Hamlin - Has run very inconsistant this season. He just doesnt look to be in any form like he was last year.

12. #88 Dale Jr. - He will run around 10th place most races. Wont challenge for any wins with an exception of Talladega.
 
I'm going to modify things a little. Seeing JJ intentionally wreck Kurt tells me that this hatred runs deep. He's done it before, but he always had some denyability. Not this time. If the chase starts going south for Kurt, I think he will get stupid(er) and provoke JJ again and again. This whole thing is getting a little sad.

My wishful top 3 are.

1) Gordon
2) Kyle Busch
3) Keselowski

I was very impressed with Kyle. They struggled with the car all night, and Kyle drove what he had all night. I'm still not convinced he can keep his head together for 10 weeks straight.

I was a little dissapointed to see Kez and Paul struggle so much. This seems to be a track Brad will have trouble getting comfortable on.

Denny seems confused and embarassed. I think that being a WC after criticizing the whole thing bothers him, but he seems to have lost focus. I will say that using TRD engines was a good call with yet another JGR engine turning into confetti.

Harvick? He's won 3 of his races this year only because he got a huge dose of luck in each one.

Carl has been so up and down, I don't know what to think. It seems like the only team that has a firm grip week after week is the 24.
 
I really think this is Harvick's year. Johnson and Stewart will be in the top five.
 
Smoke14 said:
I really think this is Harvick's year. Johnson and Stewart will be in the top five.
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He sure has that horseshoe in place. Right up Menards ass. Did you hear Menard on the radio after that self inflicted and very tame spin in the grass? "I think the right rear is down". He sounded like he was reading a script as he mumbled it. Of course, no tire was down. All pumped up and round as can be.
 
FenderBumper said:
He sure has that horseshoe in place. Right up Menards ass. Did you hear Menard on the radio after that self inflicted and very tame spin in the grass? "I think the right rear is down". He sounded like he was reading a script as he mumbled it. Of course, no tire was down. All pumped up and round as can be.
Click to expand...

Jeff Gordon eluded to this in post race press conference....sounds like their could of been some "team orders" going on there! lol
 
Gordon_Fan24 said:
Jeff Gordon eluded to this in post race press conference....sounds like their could of been some "team orders" going on there! lol
Click to expand...

It sure looked like it. I couldn't find much video of the 'spin', but the tire tracks on the grass were 2 straight lines. I'm not even sure how someone would spin down on their own on that part of the track.

It might explain why Harvick didn't put up much of a fight when Gordon passed him. Maybe he thought it would be better to let Gordon decide first and try and fake him into staying out.
 
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