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stridsberry
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Stridsberry’s 2003 Preseason Rankings
It’s that time of year, when the pre-season predictions are made. Of course, no matter what you predict, you’re going to upset some people. Which is why I have two things to say: first, there are only so many positions to go around; only so many drivers can finish in the top-10, or top-20, or vice versa. Second, they’re PREDICTIONS, not prophecies; unless you’re psychic, the odd are astronomically against correctly prediction every position prior to the start of a season. And of course, injuries and firings will always throw a monkey wrench into the equation. With that in mind, here is my best guess of how the WCS will finish this year, based on last year’s finishes, the past few years worth of point standings, and my own objective opinion (though not necessarily in that order).
1. TONY STEWART
He’ll get off to his usual slow start, but he’s still the man to beat, especially if the consistency is there.
2. RYAN NEWMAN
Penske’s teaming with Dodge makes both all the more formidable. With a year to learn about pushing the car just the right amount, Ryan will be a key challenger down the stretch.
3. MARK MARTIN
Mark will contend once again for the top-5 in points, but it will take more than one win this year to have a shot at the championship.
4. JIMMIE JOHNSON
Jimmie began to wilt down the stretch last year, with just one top-5 in the 2nd half. The odds are about evenly split between him rebounding for a title run and falling victim to the sophomore slump.
5. JEFF GORDON
He finally admitted how much the divorce proceedings were affecting him, and if Brooke keeps her antics up, it may once again keep him out of the title chase.
6. RUSTY WALLACE
Three straight 7th-place points finishes; now that’s consistency. This is going to be Rusty’s make-or-break year, when we find out if he’s still got what it takes to win.
7. KURT BUSCH
Everything’s been made of Kurt’s finish in the points last year, but this was only about an 8th-10th place team before getting hot at the end. It’s still a strong team, but not yet championship caliber.
8. MATT KENSETH
The wins are nice, but cutting down on the mechanical failures is how this team will become a title contender.
9. DALE EARNHARDT JR.
A top-10 points finish is not unlikely, but a championship? Sorry, but it’s not going to happen this year.
10. STERLING MARLIN
Last year was Sterling’s best shot ever at a championship, and while he’ll still be competitive, I don’t think he’s going to get that shot again.
11. BILL ELLIOTT
His horrible finish to the 2002 season doesn’t do anything to help his cause, but there’s still a couple of wins left in that body and car.
12. DALE JARRETT
He’s been in decline ever since winning the championship, and there’s not been many direct changes to try and pull out of that downward spiral. He may not even win a race this year.
13. GREG BIFFLE
This is perhaps my boldest prediction of the preseason – that no rookies will finish in the top-10 in points. Greg will come close, but he won’t have a cakewalk like in BGN.
14. RICKY CRAVEN
They’ve literally changed everything but the number and driver for the cars this year, but the changes will pay off in the long run – and he will get back to Victory Lane.
15. JEFF BURTON
Yet another veteran driver who’s been in decline. He’s still young enough to make a comeback, but he’s got to get after it for that to happen.
16. BOBBY LABONTE
A change in manufacturers wasn’t in the best interest of this team, because they’re now in a crowded pond and a lot less lucky to get factory support. Another year of mid-pack runs seems to be in order.
17. JOHNNY BENSON
Johnny will be a lot better than last year, especially with the new Pontiac design. But it’s unreasonable to expect a top-10 in points coming from so far back – Kurt Busch is the exception, not the rule.
18. RICKY RUDD
Ricky will be better than Sadler was in this car, that much I can say. How much better, the jury’s still out on.
19. WARD BURTON
Luck will be on his side a bit more this year, but not enough return to the top-15; the field is simply too saturated with top drivers for that to happen.
20. JAMIE McMURRAY
It’s a new team he’s driving for, and it will take some time to break that team in. But watch for him in the 2nd half of the season.
21. MICHAEL WALTRIP
He won’t be the back marker that he was in his first year at DEI, but do take note of how his performance fell off after his job security was no longer in question.
22. ELLIOTT SADLER
Each of the last two years, a top organization has had a major off year. This year, it’s going to be Robert Yate’s teams; I could see last year that they were falling off the radar.
23. KYLE PETTY
Kyle’s team was going downhill, not uphill, at the end of last season, which keeps me from ranking him any higher. But he sure surprised a lot of folks last year; who’s to say he won’t do it again?
24. KEVIN HARVICK
Meanwhile, RCR will prove that their decline wasn’t a fluke, failing to place any drivers in the top 20 in points. Not with performance as sporadic as last year.
25. DAVE BLANEY
Last year was a career year, for both team and driver. But they’re going to get priced back into mediocrity this season, because a single car team can only go so far these days.
26. JEFF GREEN
Last year, six top-10s was good enough for 17th in points. It won’t be so easy this year, and any of his major success will once again come in the Busch Series.
27. STEVE PARK
Steve was showing a lot of promise at the end of 2002, but it will be at least another half a season before he’s finally the driver he once was.
28. ROBBY GORDON
Last year, he was only truly competitive for about the middle third of the season. I didn’t see anything to convince me that that will change.
29. JOHN ANDRETTI
This is about where John was last year, wasn’t it? And the year before last? And the year before that? At least he’s consistent.
30. TERRY LABONTE
The decline will likely continue for poor old Terry, and if so, will lead to his retirement at the end of the season.
31. JEREMY MAYFIELD
The Man Who Stole Casey Atwood’s ride still won’t do much with it. Casey is probably feeling a little poetic justice.
32. JERRY NADEAU
My heart told me that Jerry’s going to do well in this car. But then my more realistic side kicked in and reminded me that this team has been in severe decline ever since Ernie Irvan retired.
33. KENNY WALLACE
Kenny is the 5th person to drive this car in three years, and the chemistry just won’t be there until towards the end of the year.
34. JOE NEMECHEK
Three top-5’s in the final eight races make it easy to forget that he only had two other top-20 finishes in 25 races with Hendrick. Some say he’s ready to contend, but I don’t think this team is there.
35. JACK SPRAGUE
Even with the help he’s getting from Hendrick, I can some up Jack’s coming season in six words: Rookie on a single car team. I’m glad we could clear that up.
36. MIKE SKINNER
The switch to Pontiac should help Mike break into the top-10 results a couple more times than last year, but time’s running out on getting that win, and it likely won’t happen here.
37. TODD BODINE
Todd is almost guaranteed of finishing higher this year than last. Of course, that’s because the team will be open for the entire season, but you take what you can get.
38. CASEY MEARS
He’s among the rawest of the raw, but stepping into a team that isn’t new might help. Then again, I have two words for you: Jason Leffler. Hmmmm…
39. JIMMY SPENCER
Take a driver that failed to produce with a big-name organization, an owner with a low-buck team and legal problems, and a big-name crew chief. Put them together, and you’ve got yourself a back marker team and people looking for work at the end of the year.
40. KEN SCHRADER
I think that BAM will do better this year than last, now that they have an experienced WC driver (no offense to Shawna) and partial sponsorship. Then again, any strong runs will likely be a result of other drivers not wanting to look at Carrot Top in their rear-view mirror.
41. TONY RAINES
Tony brings some real talent to this organization, as evidenced by his last two years in BGN. But you’ll only get so far without a sponsor.
42. LARRY FOYT
I just don’t think Larry should be in Winston Cup this year. He needs a couple more years in Busch to gain more experience, but money talks, and the sponsor has rushed him to the top. I hope Harrah’s likes riding around in the back.
43. BRETT BODINE
He won’t be running a full schedule this year, but that will likely be a good thing in the long run, because: the same budget over fewer races = more money per race to spend = a better performance = more prize money won. Gotta love economics, eh?
It’s that time of year, when the pre-season predictions are made. Of course, no matter what you predict, you’re going to upset some people. Which is why I have two things to say: first, there are only so many positions to go around; only so many drivers can finish in the top-10, or top-20, or vice versa. Second, they’re PREDICTIONS, not prophecies; unless you’re psychic, the odd are astronomically against correctly prediction every position prior to the start of a season. And of course, injuries and firings will always throw a monkey wrench into the equation. With that in mind, here is my best guess of how the WCS will finish this year, based on last year’s finishes, the past few years worth of point standings, and my own objective opinion (though not necessarily in that order).
1. TONY STEWART
He’ll get off to his usual slow start, but he’s still the man to beat, especially if the consistency is there.
2. RYAN NEWMAN
Penske’s teaming with Dodge makes both all the more formidable. With a year to learn about pushing the car just the right amount, Ryan will be a key challenger down the stretch.
3. MARK MARTIN
Mark will contend once again for the top-5 in points, but it will take more than one win this year to have a shot at the championship.
4. JIMMIE JOHNSON
Jimmie began to wilt down the stretch last year, with just one top-5 in the 2nd half. The odds are about evenly split between him rebounding for a title run and falling victim to the sophomore slump.
5. JEFF GORDON
He finally admitted how much the divorce proceedings were affecting him, and if Brooke keeps her antics up, it may once again keep him out of the title chase.
6. RUSTY WALLACE
Three straight 7th-place points finishes; now that’s consistency. This is going to be Rusty’s make-or-break year, when we find out if he’s still got what it takes to win.
7. KURT BUSCH
Everything’s been made of Kurt’s finish in the points last year, but this was only about an 8th-10th place team before getting hot at the end. It’s still a strong team, but not yet championship caliber.
8. MATT KENSETH
The wins are nice, but cutting down on the mechanical failures is how this team will become a title contender.
9. DALE EARNHARDT JR.
A top-10 points finish is not unlikely, but a championship? Sorry, but it’s not going to happen this year.
10. STERLING MARLIN
Last year was Sterling’s best shot ever at a championship, and while he’ll still be competitive, I don’t think he’s going to get that shot again.
11. BILL ELLIOTT
His horrible finish to the 2002 season doesn’t do anything to help his cause, but there’s still a couple of wins left in that body and car.
12. DALE JARRETT
He’s been in decline ever since winning the championship, and there’s not been many direct changes to try and pull out of that downward spiral. He may not even win a race this year.
13. GREG BIFFLE
This is perhaps my boldest prediction of the preseason – that no rookies will finish in the top-10 in points. Greg will come close, but he won’t have a cakewalk like in BGN.
14. RICKY CRAVEN
They’ve literally changed everything but the number and driver for the cars this year, but the changes will pay off in the long run – and he will get back to Victory Lane.
15. JEFF BURTON
Yet another veteran driver who’s been in decline. He’s still young enough to make a comeback, but he’s got to get after it for that to happen.
16. BOBBY LABONTE
A change in manufacturers wasn’t in the best interest of this team, because they’re now in a crowded pond and a lot less lucky to get factory support. Another year of mid-pack runs seems to be in order.
17. JOHNNY BENSON
Johnny will be a lot better than last year, especially with the new Pontiac design. But it’s unreasonable to expect a top-10 in points coming from so far back – Kurt Busch is the exception, not the rule.
18. RICKY RUDD
Ricky will be better than Sadler was in this car, that much I can say. How much better, the jury’s still out on.
19. WARD BURTON
Luck will be on his side a bit more this year, but not enough return to the top-15; the field is simply too saturated with top drivers for that to happen.
20. JAMIE McMURRAY
It’s a new team he’s driving for, and it will take some time to break that team in. But watch for him in the 2nd half of the season.
21. MICHAEL WALTRIP
He won’t be the back marker that he was in his first year at DEI, but do take note of how his performance fell off after his job security was no longer in question.
22. ELLIOTT SADLER
Each of the last two years, a top organization has had a major off year. This year, it’s going to be Robert Yate’s teams; I could see last year that they were falling off the radar.
23. KYLE PETTY
Kyle’s team was going downhill, not uphill, at the end of last season, which keeps me from ranking him any higher. But he sure surprised a lot of folks last year; who’s to say he won’t do it again?
24. KEVIN HARVICK
Meanwhile, RCR will prove that their decline wasn’t a fluke, failing to place any drivers in the top 20 in points. Not with performance as sporadic as last year.
25. DAVE BLANEY
Last year was a career year, for both team and driver. But they’re going to get priced back into mediocrity this season, because a single car team can only go so far these days.
26. JEFF GREEN
Last year, six top-10s was good enough for 17th in points. It won’t be so easy this year, and any of his major success will once again come in the Busch Series.
27. STEVE PARK
Steve was showing a lot of promise at the end of 2002, but it will be at least another half a season before he’s finally the driver he once was.
28. ROBBY GORDON
Last year, he was only truly competitive for about the middle third of the season. I didn’t see anything to convince me that that will change.
29. JOHN ANDRETTI
This is about where John was last year, wasn’t it? And the year before last? And the year before that? At least he’s consistent.
30. TERRY LABONTE
The decline will likely continue for poor old Terry, and if so, will lead to his retirement at the end of the season.
31. JEREMY MAYFIELD
The Man Who Stole Casey Atwood’s ride still won’t do much with it. Casey is probably feeling a little poetic justice.
32. JERRY NADEAU
My heart told me that Jerry’s going to do well in this car. But then my more realistic side kicked in and reminded me that this team has been in severe decline ever since Ernie Irvan retired.
33. KENNY WALLACE
Kenny is the 5th person to drive this car in three years, and the chemistry just won’t be there until towards the end of the year.
34. JOE NEMECHEK
Three top-5’s in the final eight races make it easy to forget that he only had two other top-20 finishes in 25 races with Hendrick. Some say he’s ready to contend, but I don’t think this team is there.
35. JACK SPRAGUE
Even with the help he’s getting from Hendrick, I can some up Jack’s coming season in six words: Rookie on a single car team. I’m glad we could clear that up.
36. MIKE SKINNER
The switch to Pontiac should help Mike break into the top-10 results a couple more times than last year, but time’s running out on getting that win, and it likely won’t happen here.
37. TODD BODINE
Todd is almost guaranteed of finishing higher this year than last. Of course, that’s because the team will be open for the entire season, but you take what you can get.
38. CASEY MEARS
He’s among the rawest of the raw, but stepping into a team that isn’t new might help. Then again, I have two words for you: Jason Leffler. Hmmmm…
39. JIMMY SPENCER
Take a driver that failed to produce with a big-name organization, an owner with a low-buck team and legal problems, and a big-name crew chief. Put them together, and you’ve got yourself a back marker team and people looking for work at the end of the year.
40. KEN SCHRADER
I think that BAM will do better this year than last, now that they have an experienced WC driver (no offense to Shawna) and partial sponsorship. Then again, any strong runs will likely be a result of other drivers not wanting to look at Carrot Top in their rear-view mirror.
41. TONY RAINES
Tony brings some real talent to this organization, as evidenced by his last two years in BGN. But you’ll only get so far without a sponsor.
42. LARRY FOYT
I just don’t think Larry should be in Winston Cup this year. He needs a couple more years in Busch to gain more experience, but money talks, and the sponsor has rushed him to the top. I hope Harrah’s likes riding around in the back.
43. BRETT BODINE
He won’t be running a full schedule this year, but that will likely be a good thing in the long run, because: the same budget over fewer races = more money per race to spend = a better performance = more prize money won. Gotta love economics, eh?
