What is your promote, keep, drop line?

[RaceCritter]

Watching so many rising stars and failing experiments in trucks and xfinity as well as seeing some popular drivers in the Cup just tool along with few top 10s or no wins…money aside (ish).

When someone has moved up a level what do you think their performance should be in what kind of time frame before the owner/team makes a change?

I’m not talking a 5 win in a season phenomenon getting an obvious promotion. More like the 1 win in 3 years and maybe 2-3 top 10s? Or someone who is averaging a 15-20th place finish?

Outside of Hendricks should 1 win every 2-3 years be enough to keep a seat. Should an average finish of 15 be enough or would you be demoting them?

Think Austin Dillon vs Daniel Suarez. But there are countless others of course. What performance should be enough to stay on some ride at each level?

 

[Revman]

Great thread. Just awesome. I think it has to be more than wins. I think that qualifying position, laps led, and wins need to factor in to an analysis of driver performance with a premium on qualifying and laps led over wins for younger drivers. I think we are developing the timeline for all of that as we speak. Let's look at Ty....no wins. Disappointing.....but you don't cut and run on him, do you? He has had speed....hasn't led many laps.....no wins....year 3. You probably don't do anything this offseason, but you would have to take a serious look at that seat if he is in the same place next season. Now, we are talking about performance, but in Ty's situation, we all understand the situation there....he has Monster and Grandpa.....politics changes things unfortunately......Heim would agree.

 

[kckolbe]

Watching so many rising stars and failing experiments in trucks and xfinity as well as seeing some popular drivers in the Cup just tool along with few top 10s or no wins…money aside (ish).

When someone has moved up a level what do you think their performance should be in what kind of time frame before the owner/team makes a change?

I’m not talking a 5 win in a season phenomenon getting an obvious promotion. More like the 1 win in 3 years and maybe 2-3 top 10s? Or someone who is averaging a 15-20th place finish?

Outside of Hendricks should 1 win every 2-3 years be enough to keep a seat. Should an average finish of 15 be enough or would you be demoting them?

Think Austin Dillon vs Daniel Suarez. But there are countless others of course. What performance should be enough to stay on some ride at each level?

You are speaking my language.

Obviously different teams have to have different standards. Even for top teams, though, I'd say playoffs is enough. I would keep Bowman at his current level of performance.

For Austin Dillon/Ty Gibbs, he's the owner's grandson, not going anywhere. Interestingly, Busch and Dillon are looking pretty comparable in finishing position so far this year, with Busch really struggling. It's hard to argue Dillon is dragging the team down, even though there's plenty of evidence he sucks as a driver.

With Gibbs, I'm gonna take an odd angle and say I wouldn't fire him even were it a reality. Yeah, this year he's lagging behind, 5 spots behind Briscoe and Hamlin, and Briscoe is in a transition year and Hamlin has wins to make up for it. But really, look at how old Hamlin is. How much longer is he staying? Are you really confident Briscoe will work out? Do you really want to let a talented young driver walk? Because Gibbs would be picked up elsewhere. He's just too fast. Now, if you're Joe Gibbs, you have two empty seats you have to fill, the 11 and 54. And that doesn't just mean finding two new drivers, but having to acclimate two new drivers, all while Briscoe is still getting used to things. Whatever team culture you think you have, kiss it goodbye.

Now for Suarez. We can't pretend Trackhouse is a good team. How can you even mention Suarez when SVG, his teammate, is finishing almost 6 spots worse than Suarez? And SVG is older, so his potential isn't that high. Even if he does improve next year, and how could he not, you really think he's gonna be full time 5 years from now? No, this is a short term experiment. I think the Trackhouse and Suarez relationship has degraded too much, and so Suarez will likely go, but this team will suffer for it. Also, while Chastain may be once again having a borderline playoff season, he doesn't make it without a win, and given that Chastain only has 1 DNF, I'd say he's more likely to fall than climb in the standings. He's just not that fast.

I'd boot Dillon if I could, but I think you aren't being fair at all to Suarez.

 

[Conover]

Great thread. Just awesome. I think it has to be more than wins. I think that qualifying position, laps led, and wins need to factor in to an analysis of driver performance with a premium on qualifying and laps led over wins for younger drivers. I think we are developing the timeline for all of that as we speak. Let's look at Ty....no wins. Disappointing.....but you don't cut and run on him, do you? He has had speed....hasn't led many laps.....no wins....year 3. You probably don't do anything this offseason, but you would have to take a serious look at that seat if he is in the same place next season. Now, we are talking about performance, but in Ty's situation, we all understand the situation there....he has Monster and Grandpa.....politics changes things unfortunately......Heim would agree.

Indeed, good observations. Despite the obvious relationship, I think Ty Gibbs will be at JGR a long time. He has shown flashes, and with experience and maturity will produce wins. It could be one of those deals where, once he gets his first win, he starts producing multi win seasons on a regular basis. Team changes made this year seem to be positive.

Sponsorship support is a huge part of driver retention. Almirola’s Cup career was largely attributable to Smithfield. Trackhouse has scored some key partners which will help them navigate through a drop off year in performance. I feel like they’re stretching their organization too thin thereby failing to keep up with this car’s evolving speed setting.

Some drivers are just solid pros, and keep getting rides despite performance. Look at Ty Dillon. I thought he was done, total toast after losing his ride. Then gets put in the 10 by Kaulig; I thought that was dumb…but he’s done a pretty good job so far. Ty Dillon knows how to drive, a pro, but I wouldn’t pick him for a top ride. Yet, his steady performance keeps him in the series.

 

[hmmm298]

They definitely should give them at least anywhere from about 3-5 years to show something, but they should show flashes like Hocevar and even Zane Smith/Todd Gilliland now.

Look at Byron’s first couple of years and he even had Chad. But he showed flashes of greatness even though he struggled greatly. Imagine if they had given up on him, and now he’s arguably possibly the best driver in NASCAR. Definitely the best to not win a championship so far.

The sweet spot imo can vary depending on the driver and age/maturity level but is anywhere from 3-5 years to get fully acclimatized.

5+ years you should be starting to become a veteran of the sport.

 

[RaceCritter]

You are speaking my language.

Obviously different teams have to have different standards. Even for top teams, though, I'd say playoffs is enough. I would keep Bowman at his current level of performance.

For Austin Dillon/Ty Gibbs, he's the owner's grandson, not going anywhere. Interestingly, Busch and Dillon are looking pretty comparable in finishing position so far this year, with Busch really struggling. It's hard to argue Dillon is dragging the team down, even though there's plenty of evidence he sucks as a driver.

With Gibbs, I'm gonna take an odd angle and say I wouldn't fire him even were it a reality. Yeah, this year he's lagging behind, 5 spots behind Briscoe and Hamlin, and Briscoe is in a transition year and Hamlin has wins to make up for it. But really, look at how old Hamlin is. How much longer is he staying? Are you really confident Briscoe will work out? Do you really want to let a talented young driver walk? Because Gibbs would be picked up elsewhere. He's just too fast. Now, if you're Joe Gibbs, you have two empty seats you have to fill, the 11 and 54. And that doesn't just mean finding two new drivers, but having to acclimate two new drivers, all while Briscoe is still getting used to things. Whatever team culture you think you have, kiss it goodbye.

Now for Suarez. We can't pretend Trackhouse is a good team. How can you even mention Suarez when SVG, his teammate, is finishing almost 6 spots worse than Suarez? And SVG is older, so his potential isn't that high. Even if he does improve next year, and how could he not, you really think he's gonna be full time 5 years from now? No, this is a short term experiment. I think the Trackhouse and Suarez relationship has degraded too much, and so Suarez will likely go, but this team will suffer for it. Also, while Chastain may be once again having a borderline playoff season, he doesn't make it without a win, and given that Chastain only has 1 DNF, I'd say he's more likely to fall than climb in the standings. He's just not that fast.

I'd boot Dillon if I could, but I think you aren't being fair at all to Suarez.

Suarez was just an example I threw out as someone who has won twice and who had a following but seems stuck in that 15ish spot. Nepo clearly supports some teams/drivers of course. I’m guessing there is a wide gulf between what most owners expect and what is sustainable through sponsorship and it’s also speeding up. I suspect if you aren’t a relative, your horizon for winning and keeping sponsors is shorter than it used to be.

I guess Trackhouse and 23XI and maybe wood brothers are the teams this applies to the most. Do they think they are top tier clubs or do they have a sense that 1-2 wins across 2-4 drivers is doing well? Hard to say. For me personally I’d stick it out with Suarez and Chastain another year maybe two. I think at the mid tier allowing for an unlucky streak or a bad pit crew alignment should be baked in if someone shows they can win more than a rain out. I mean Beuscher is a decent example of that. Dude was total mid pack except for a
Fluke but letting him drive another year really showed he has chops.

I do think the top 16/ playoffs aren’t a bad litmus test. If you can make the playoffs 50% of the time something must be going well

 

[Revman]

Indeed, good observations. Despite the obvious relationship, I think Ty Gibbs will be at JGR a long time. He has shown flashes, and with experience and maturity will produce wins. It could be one of those deals where, once he gets his first win, he starts producing multi win seasons on a regular basis. Team changes made this year seem to be positive.

Sponsorship support is a huge part of driver retention. Almirola’s Cup career was largely attributable to Smithfield. Trackhouse has scored some key partners which will help them navigate through a drop off year in performance. I feel like they’re stretching their organization too thin thereby failing to keep up with this car’s evolving speed setting.

Some drivers are just solid pros, and keep getting rides despite performance. Look at Ty Dillon. I thought he was done, total toast after losing his ride. Then gets put in the 10 by Kaulig; I thought that was dumb…but he’s done a pretty good job so far. Ty Dillon knows how to drive, a pro, but I wouldn’t pick him for a top ride. Yet, his steady performance keeps him in the series.

Well said. I worry about the timing of the changes on Ty's team. Driver performance is a collection of variables most of which I am clueless as I am not a driver. So, we spend a couple of years with Gayle. We kind of knew where Ty was in his progression. Then, before we get a clear picture about his ceiling, all of those waters become murky as we break in a new crew chief in Tyler Allen. How in the hell can we separate one Ty's issues from the other? I didn't like this change.

Great point about Dillon. Told the story a million times here, but I sat next to him on a plane to San Francisco. This guy is a complete gentleman. Rooted for him ever since.

 

[Revman]

They definitely should give them at least anywhere from about 3-5 years to show something, but they should show flashes like Hocevar and even Zane Smith/Todd Gilliland now.

Look at Byron’s first couple of years and he even had Chad. But he showed flashes of greatness even though he struggled greatly. Imagine if they had given up on him, and now he’s arguably possibly the best driver in NASCAR. Definitely the best to not win a championship so far.

The sweet spot imo can vary depending on the driver and age/maturity level but is anywhere from 3-5 years to get fully acclimatized.

5+ years you should be starting to become a veteran of the sport.

I agree on the 3-5 years.....but man that is asking a lot of sponsors who like Victory Lane parties. Could make the case that if you land a sponsor like that--and there are some--you are a top tier team. The thing with Ty and Monster that is interesting is that Monster is not a match for JGR. Don't know how the hell this even exists. When Coach comes around, the Monster Girls must move away. Saw it on the stage in Phoenix when Ty won the Xfinity Championship. Can't imagine why the hell the Monster people put up with that when Ty isn't winning, but they must know what they are doing.

I like your enthusiasm for Willie B.....and your observations.....but your assessment of his ability is very optimistic....and that's okay, really.

 

[virtualbalboa]

Now for Suarez. We can't pretend Trackhouse is a good team. How can you even mention Suarez when SVG, his teammate, is finishing almost 6 spots worse than Suarez? And SVG is older, so his potential isn't that high.

Because SVG isn't in Cup due to the presumption he's gonna be a great oval racer. He's in Cup because he is a real threat to win on road/street circuits and the entire structure of the sport benefits teams who hire a specialist capable of making the chase by being able to win one race.

Any driver without that sort of skill who isn't a consistent threat and doesn't bring money or genes matching the owner can be replaced easily.

 

[StandOnIt]

Great thread. Just awesome. I think it has to be more than wins. I think that qualifying position, laps led, and wins need to factor in to an analysis of driver performance with a premium on qualifying and laps led over wins for younger drivers. I think we are developing the timeline for all of that as we speak. Let's look at Ty....no wins. Disappointing.....but you don't cut and run on him, do you? He has had speed....hasn't led many laps.....no wins....year 3. You probably don't do anything this offseason, but you would have to take a serious look at that seat if he is in the same place next season. Now, we are talking about performance, but in Ty's situation, we all understand the situation there....he has Monster and Grandpa.....politics changes things unfortunately......Heim would agree.

Glad you brought Heim into the conversation. Nepotism is alive and well. Boy wonder should be in the Trucks and Xfinity and Heim should have been brought thru the ranks and be in cup. Another bad decision by sold out Joe.
So many factors. Drivers with a golden calf like Almirola, drivers who are popular with large media followings, some have family money and big business connections. None of it matters much when it comes to talent and who continues to score wins top 5's and 10's.
It's all part of the story. Little guys digging like the Seigs in Xfinity, Well liked well sponsored Allgaier, Super talent Larson and Bell, guys who made it on talent alone. Guys like Chastain who last night told how obsessed he was and how hard he worked for years and years to get where he is today.
It's an easy road for some with golden spoons and harder than hell for others who have to fight and claw for everything.

IMO some seats are not earned, but most really are.

 

[StandOnIt]

They definitely should give them at least anywhere from about 3-5 years to show something, but they should show flashes like Hocevar and even Zane Smith/Todd Gilliland now.

Look at Byron’s first couple of years and he even had Chad. But he showed flashes of greatness even though he struggled greatly. Imagine if they had given up on him, and now he’s arguably possibly the best driver in NASCAR. Definitely the best to not win a championship so far.

The sweet spot imo can vary depending on the driver and age/maturity level but is anywhere from 3-5 years to get fully acclimatized.

5+ years you should be starting to become a veteran of the sport.

Had a fan last night saying Byron was embarrassed and then he said Byron was pissed. Byron isn't that way. He was figuring what they needed next time, said in his interview right after the race that they were faster so far this year than last. That is the kind of driver he is. Cold, calculating, the silent assassin IMO. He will never be another Carl Edwards personality type, but he has titles in his future and BTW is leading in the points.

 

[RaceCritter]

I realize it’ll never happen in NASCAR but is still think it would be great if there were more podium recognition for 2nd and 3rd place. We have some amazing races where those guys should be showered with praise too for an epic drive but it’s too often drowned out because only first place “wins”. I do get that’s the nature of NASCAR but watching Byron (for example) who I don’t even like basically get a waa waa interview after owning 95% of the race and giving us such an exciting 4th stage…I’d give him a silver medal and a handshake for that performance. Just sayin.

 

[kckolbe]

I realize it’ll never happen in NASCAR but is still think it would be great if there were more podium recognition for 2nd and 3rd place. We have some amazing races where those guys should be showered with praise too for an epic drive but it’s too often drowned out because only first place “wins”. I do get that’s the nature of NASCAR but watching Byron (for example) who I don’t even like basically get a waa waa interview after owning 95% of the race and giving us such an exciting 4th stage…I’d give him a silver medal and a handshake for that performance. Just sayin.

Eh...I'd say 65 points is more than adequate compensation. He's gonna get plenty of coverage throughout the season as someone fighting for the overall lead in points.

 

[StandOnIt]

I realize it’ll never happen in NASCAR but is still think it would be great if there were more podium recognition for 2nd and 3rd place. We have some amazing races where those guys should be showered with praise too for an epic drive but it’s too often drowned out because only first place “wins”. I do get that’s the nature of NASCAR but watching Byron (for example) who I don’t even like basically get a waa waa interview after owning 95% of the race and giving us such an exciting 4th stage…I’d give him a silver medal and a handshake for that performance. Just sayin.

I thought the interviewer of Byron was going to hold a wake. Terrible job.

 

[AlTerego]

Watching so many rising stars and failing experiments in trucks and xfinity as well as seeing some popular drivers in the Cup just tool along with few top 10s or no wins…money aside (ish).

When someone has moved up a level what do you think their performance should be in what kind of time frame before the owner/team makes a change?

I’m not talking a 5 win in a season phenomenon getting an obvious promotion. More like the 1 win in 3 years and maybe 2-3 top 10s? Or someone who is averaging a 15-20th place finish?

Outside of Hendricks should 1 win every 2-3 years be enough to keep a seat. Should an average finish of 15 be enough or would you be demoting them?

Think Austin Dillon vs Daniel Suarez. But there are countless others of course. What performance should be enough to stay on some ride at each level?

With the way the championship is now winning is everything to me & the championship is like winning MPD.

Based solely on performance I would give the Gibbs boy one more year after this to show he was worthy of a JGR seat. He would need to be fast & show signs he was getting ready to win.

If Bubba doesn’t win this year it will have been a little over 3 years since his last victory. 2311 is a team with plenty of resources so I don’t think you can let that lack of success stand. I’d love to see Haim get a shot in the 23 car as I think the kid is fast & a future cup winner.

Obviously the Gibbs boy & Bubba are going nowhere & should be able to drive for their team’s for as long as they want.

 

[Daytripper]

I realize it’ll never happen in NASCAR but is still think it would be great if there were more podium recognition for 2nd and 3rd place. We have some amazing races where those guys should be showered with praise too for an epic drive but it’s too often drowned out because only first place “wins”. I do get that’s the nature of NASCAR but watching Byron (for example) who I don’t even like basically get a waa waa interview after owning 95% of the race and giving us such an exciting 4th stage…I’d give him a silver medal and a handshake for that performance. Just sayin.

If you ain't first your last!

 

[hmmm298]

If you ain't first your last!

And if you ain’t running at the end, you’re Kyle Larson.

 

[Charlie Spencer]

I do get that’s the nature of NASCAR but watching Byron (for example) who I don’t even like basically get a waa waa interview after owning 95% of the race and giving us such an exciting 4th stage…I’d give him a silver medal and a handshake for that performance.

Byron walked off with 65 points to Chastain's 50.

 

[RaceCritter]

That also seems screwy.

 

[Greg]

That also seems screwy.

It should not be possibile to win the race and lose points to anyone else. I appreciate some bonuses for winning stages, etc, but they should never exceed or even equal the total number of points the winner will recieve.

 

[kckolbe]

It should not be possibile to win the race and lose points to anyone else. I appreciate some bonuses for winning stages, etc, but they should never exceed or even equal the total number of points the winner will recieve.

Here's an argument to why it should be okay. Remember the quintuple OT we had last year? Imagine a driver leading the whole race, but running out of fuel around OT 3-4, and a driver who only leads the final lap comes away with more points. No method is perfect, but great performances of all kinds should be rewarded. I'm personally for bringing back the most laps led bonus, tbh.

 

[Charlie Spencer]

That also seems screwy.

Oh, I agree. It's easily fixed by giving the race winner a fixed 75 points regardless of stage finishing position.

But the subject was whether we should pay attention to podium finishes. If I walking away in 2nd with the most points, why would I care about a ceremony?

 

[StandOnIt]

I think you have to figure in the first time winner jackpot jamboree when doing serious gerbiling. Wasn't there supposed to be a mid season tournament?
That could go on Ross's resume, game one tournament winner.

 

[Revman]

Another bad decision by sold out Joe.

You operate on the assumption that Heim is heading to JGR. Legacy is trying to acquire another charter for those keeping score.

 

[RaceCritter]

For top tier teams a Minimum of 2 wins every 3 years seems the absolute bottom to keep and a real expectation of at least one win a year…or better. But no one would dump Larson or Byron if they had a total bolo year. Maybe 2.3-3 years at this point.

For the mid tier honestly one win every 3 years would likely keep a lot of seats. Anything better than seems to cement it.

But wins are squirrelly and I’d think something like top 10 and top 5 finishes would be a much better overall gauge of a quality driver. If I was Spire or Traxkhouse and had anyone with 3 top 5 and 6 top 10 races in a year I’d likely want them even without wins. I’ll keep thinking on it as a brain teas because they don’t care what I think

 

[StandOnIt]

You operate on the assumption that Heim is heading to JGR. Legacy is trying to acquire another charter for those keeping score.

I operate on the fact that he kicked Busch to the curb, hired boy wonder, then he hired Briscoe and he muffed both of those chances because Heim and boy wonder didn't get along. Heim has been in the trucks for 4 years now lol, fine with me. Keep losing yotas. Good luck with Swalitch.

 

[Revman]

I operate on the fact that he kicked Busch to the curb, hired boy wonder, then he hired Briscoe and he muffed both of those chances because Heim and boy wonder didn't get along. Heim has been in the trucks for 4 years now lol, fine with me. Keep losing yotas. Good luck with Swalitch.

How's that Busch thing working out for Poor Richard? Seems like a good management move to me....and then the Kenseth thing.....win much after release? Another good move. This isn't a scrapbooking party where everyone is welcome regardless of ability. Again, you operate on the assumption that Heim is JGR bound....I am thinking that Legacy is at play. Maybe 23XI once WE get done with Riley's paid visit.

 

[StandOnIt]

How's that Busch thing working out for Poor Richard? Seems like a good management move to me....and then the Kenseth thing.....win much after release? Another good move. This isn't a scrapbooking party where everyone is welcome regardless of ability. Again, you operate on the assumption that Heim is JGR bound....I am thinking that Legacy is at play. Maybe 23XI once WE get done with Riley's paid visit.

I posted a couple of snippets for Kyle B. It seems he is driving a new Vette, and he picked up a new sponsor from the beer wagon people. Life is good in the Chevy world.