Looking ahead a bit...
Dover. All the top challengers do well there historically.
Kansas. Not much history to go on there, maybe a little edge for JJ.
Talledega. With the plates, draw names out of a hat. Gordon has a tendency to come out of these plate races smelling all rosy, so a slight nod there for him.
Charlotte. See Dover. If anyone, Martin gets a slight edge there due to consistency.
Martinsville. Favors the smarter drivers, who are able to save brakes. Maybe Gordon gets a nod here.
Atlanta. See Charlotte. If Sterling is gonna make a run, he must hold his own here.
Rockingham. By this time, we should be down to three or four with legitimate chances due to bad breaks at the last few races. Martin and Gordon each get a nod here.
Phoenix. Flat track. Stewart gains points here.
Miami. Stewart again.
What does all this mean? First off, it means I need a more challenging job if I have time to do this at work.
Secondly, it means that each of the competitors for the championship has at least one strong track left on the schedule. Therefore, it will come down to who loses it more than who wins it for awhile. Cut tires, lap traffic, and getting a decent finish when your equipment ain't top notch will decide it. Mark Martin has demonstrated the ability to finish consistently better than the others. He may win one more race this year, but I will be surprised if he finishes out of the top 25 anywhere except maybe Talledega. Depending on when the 37 car pileup happens. Gordon is all over the place with his finishes; either he's awesome or he blows. Stewart shows a lot of consistency, but a lot of meetings with the wall too this year. JJ is done IMO, and Sterling will hang around. I see Mark Martin holding off Tony Stewart for the championship, as Tony will make a late run on his stronger tracks. We'll have a lot clearer picture after Charlotte I think. One or more will be all but out of it by then.
