14 non-Daytona/Talladega races, 4 winners

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Privateer

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At what point is this a thing to talk about?

I don't consider it a huge positive or negative either way, it's just odd. In those 14 races, those 3 have 12 wins, 8 runners-up, 2 3rds, 5 4ths, and 5 5ths. So in those 14 races, there's only 10 instances out of 42 of any of the 3 not finishing Top 5.

Some NASCAR commentators out there thought pre-season there could be 17 different winners in the first 26 races because "this field is so competitive", which I rolled my eyes at, but we're 16 races in and it's already mathematically impossible. Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Truex have clearly been class of the field.

These guys have stepped it up to a level beyond everyone? Competition of the field is down due to drivers or certain teams? The current race format is easier to game? Can't put it all on just one team has the field whipped, they all represent different teams, 2 of which have multiple teammates. There's sometimes been a guy or two that seem uber-dominant and win say a third of all races, but this year you have a post-it note with 3 drivers and one of those 3 is going to win. (Bowyer's done very well, but he's not Harvick, Kyle Busch, or Truex this year.)
 
Yep. Each week its a 80-90% chance one of them 3 is going to win. So what else is there to talk about?
 
Privateer said:
Bowyer's done very well, but he's not Harvick, Kyle Busch, or Truex this year.
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I don't think Bowyer's that far out of the conversation though. He's been running towards the front about every week, has two wins, and is 6th in points, just two points behind Truex. Everybody thinks the 4, 18, and 78 are locks for Homestead, I wouldn't be surprised if Bowyer is the 4th guy.
 
it's like some wake up in a new day like a bird, don't do any research and think this is odd or a new thing. Like last year for example two cars ran a huge number of laps led and finished one and two. Huh, this year I'll be dammed two of them are doing it again. Wonder why somebody had the brilliant idea to cut everything and have 4 of them run for the title. Could be to disguise the fact that it has been happening for years.
 
Speedbowl14 said:
Yep. Each week its a 80-90% chance one of them 3 is going to win. So what else is there to talk about?
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Hence why there's constantly *warnings* to stay on topic in race threads and so on lol. Often times there just isn't much to talk about during these races.
 
I think one of the interesting parts about it this year are the playoff points. I know people hate to talk about the playoffs, but since one guy hasn't been as dominant as Truex was last year, none of them will get an automatic birth to the final 4 like Truex did last year. All three/four will probably make the final 8, but they will have to start fighting for those final 4 spots.

Last year, Truex was a lock in the final 4 from the start of the playoffs and everyone else had to race their way in. Things didn't start getting crazy on track until Phoenix. This year, I expect things will get crazy a little earlier.
 
- Talent outflux. Over the last half-decade or so we've lost all-time greats like Gordon, Stewart, Kenseth...Edwards was obviously also very good, and it wasn't even that long ago that Greg Biffle was doing well. NASCAR can circlejerk these young guys all day long but they're still very raw and have a lot of development left to do. They're more potential than finished products right now.

- Less "randomness" in races. Rather than random "debris" yellows altering the complexion of the race there's more of a script to follow with the stages, and teams can structure their strategies around them. That scheduled cautions now exist has led to NASCAR allowing the rest of the race to flow more freely and you don't see nearly as many late dubious cautions, and subsequently fewer random lotto winners due to strategy or restart carnivals.

- Select teams and manufacturers just put better stuff out there right now.
 
StandOnIt said:
it's like some wake up in a new day like a bird, don't do any research and think this is odd or a new thing. Like last year for example two cars ran a huge number of laps led and finished one and two. Huh, this year I'll be dammed two of them are doing it again. Wonder why somebody had the brilliant idea to cut everything and have 4 of them run for the title. Could be to disguise the fact that it has been happening for years.
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2017 season thru Sonoma. Not counting Daytona and Talladega because performance in those races doesn't matter:

Truex/Busch/Harvick - won 3 races out of 14, 2 runners-up, 5 3rds, 2 4ths, 3 5ths. Whereas this year their top 5s are 32 out of 42, last year they were 15 out of 42.

This year only Clint Bowyer has won races outside of those 3, 2 of them in fact. Last year we had Keselowski win 2, Newman, Larson win 2, Jimmie Johnson win 3, Logano, Austin Dillon, and Blaney.

The start of this season is therefore demonstrated to be very different to the start of the 2017 season, where those 3 drivers did in the end go 1-2-3 in the season standings.

The 4, 18, and 78 have won 24 of the last 33 races.
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Wow. The offseason break in the middle has helped disguise that. That's only 3 races away from a full calendar year.

When I have more time I'll do a composite points of those 33 races to see how large the races gap is from those drivers, guys like Keselowski, and then the rest of the field. There has to be aftereffects from this though for the rest of the field that feels they should be competitive (Hendrick, Chevy in general). I feel other than some "old-timers" retiring after 2017 and Bayne getting pushed to partial season at Roush, there's been little of anything.
 
FLRacingFan said:
- Talent outflux. Over the last half-decade or so we've lost all-time greats like Gordon, Stewart, Kenseth...Edwards was obviously also very good, and it wasn't even that long ago that Greg Biffle was doing well. NASCAR can circlejerk these young guys all day long but they're still very raw and have a lot of development left to do. They're more potential than finished products right now.

- Less "randomness" in races. Rather than random "debris" yellows altering the complexion of the race there's more of a script to follow with the stages, and teams can structure their strategies around them. That scheduled cautions now exist has led to NASCAR allowing the rest of the race to flow more freely and you don't see nearly as many late dubious cautions, and subsequently fewer random lotto winners due to strategy or restart carnivals.
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I do agree with both of those. And talent outflux may increase after this year with Jimmie.
 
FLRacingFan said:
- Talent outflux. Over the last half-decade or so we've lost all-time greats like Gordon, Stewart, Kenseth...Edwards was obviously also very good, and it wasn't even that long ago that Greg Biffle was doing well. NASCAR can circlejerk these young guys all day long but they're still very raw and have a lot of development left to do. They're more potential than finished products right now.

- Less "randomness" in races. Rather than random "debris" yellows altering the complexion of the race there's more of a script to follow with the stages, and teams can structure their strategies around them. That scheduled cautions now exist has led to NASCAR allowing the rest of the race to flow more freely and you don't see nearly as many late dubious cautions, and subsequently fewer random lotto winners due to strategy or restart carnivals.

- Select teams and manufacturers just put better stuff out there right now.
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This covers the factors at work. It is different and particularly pronounced this season by the different winners measure. There were 11 different winners in the first 16 races in 2017, 2016, and 2015.

The question isn't whether we are seeing more concentrated dominance currently. The questions are is that inherently a negative, and if so, how should it be addressed? The lack of late race cautions is a large contributor IMO. The best car of the day is just plain winning more often now. Is that bad? Not to me.

I believe that team 'parity' is an issue that should be managed over the long term by trying to close resource gaps and ensure that more teams have an opportunity to excel. I don't believe it should be managed with quick fixes that are essentially designed to make results more random. Anyone who thinks that TV ratings woes are being driven primarily by anything other than the departure of so many star drivers so quickly is fooling themselves.
 
Sadly predictable, yes. Not someone like Gordon or Johnson in their primes dominating, either. Truex's ascension to the top of NASCAR is completely puzzling to me. Harvick was always decent, but five drivers in the modern era have won a title in their 40s. Three of those drivers have seven championships, one has 84 wins, and the other is Harvick's boss. Harvick would be quite out of place in that group if he wins a championship this year, imo.

Jimmie falling off the face of the Earth also doesn't make any sense. He was automatic at several tracks, and now he gets lapped at Martinsville by Clint Bowyer. How are they that far behind? You could put Jimmie in a damn tuk tuk at Martinsville and he'd get a top 10.

Busch is the only one that makes sense. Prime of his career, top team, good crew chief. The results aren't surprising. Imagine Kyle having the season Harvick having this year, only 10 years from now. That's what Harvick is doing.
 
Privateer said:
I think if you told Junior fans 12 years ago the future champion racing for DEI is Truex, not Junior, none of them would believe you.
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Truex sucked (comparatively speaking to now) in the late 00s, early 10s. Just a real weird career for him. He looked like he was gonna be another Casey Mears there for a while with one win and then many many years racing around for top 10s.
 
Speedbowl14 said:
Truex sucked (comparatively speaking to now) in the late 00s, early 10s. Just a real weird career for him. He looked like he was gonna be another Casey Mears there for a while with one win and then many many years racing around for top 10s.
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Everything you say is true. Always thought he was little more than a glorified midfielder. Sure proved a lot of people wrong.

Comparing owner point standings from last year to this year because that's best way to do like vs. like (63 more points have been handed out this year, this is due to variable race entries, if you want to normalize you could remove a point or two from every position), the top 11 positions in the standings are significantly ahead of where they were after race 16 last year. Getting 40 points for a win, the top 11 are a combined +266 over this point in 2017 and that's with 2nd being down 22. 1st is +37, 3rd is +36, 6th is +35, 7th is +41, 10th is +37, and 11th is +39.

This being points, it's a near zero-sum game, so they have to come from somewhere. That is 12th through 24th, all of which have declined from 2017, and are a combined -210. It is worst in the 18th thru 21st range. 18th is -24, 19th is -44, 20th is -33, and 21st is -21.

25th thru 30th are all positive and 31st thru 36th are all negative.

So the top 11 cars have put a larger gap between themselves and the midfield, the midfield (pretty much the back half of the multi-car well-funded entries where teams expect to win) have fallen back, the tail of what I call the "serious entries" (Leavine, Front Row, Germain, JTG Daugherty) have caught up to the midfield some, and the backmarkers have gotten worse.
 
ReturnTrip said:
Sadly predictable, yes. Not someone like Gordon or Johnson in their primes dominating, either. Truex's ascension to the top of NASCAR is completely puzzling to me. Harvick was always decent, but five drivers in the modern era have won a title in their 40s. Three of those drivers have seven championships, one has 84 wins, and the other is Harvick's boss. Harvick would be quite out of place in that group if he wins a championship this year, imo.

Jimmie falling off the face of the Earth also doesn't make any sense. He was automatic at several tracks, and now he gets lapped at Martinsville by Clint Bowyer. How are they that far behind? You could put Jimmie in a damn tuk tuk at Martinsville and he'd get a top 10.

Busch is the only one that makes sense. Prime of his career, top team, good crew chief. The results aren't surprising. Imagine Kyle having the season Harvick having this year, only 10 years from now. That's what Harvick is doing.
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Not taking anything away from Truex, but I think Cole Pearn is THAT good. He's taken what was considered an average driver and won a championship with him and could win a second.

Jimmie's fall off is no different than other drivers from the past who were winning races left and right, then the well went dry. I think Jimmie will win a race this year, maybe two.
 
MRM said:
Not taking anything away from Truex, but I think Cole Pearn is THAT good. He's taken what was considered an average driver and won a championship with him and could win a second.

Jimmie's fall off is no different than other drivers from the past who were winning races left and right, then the well went dry. I think Jimmie will win a race this year, maybe two.
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Cole Pearn is a great Chief no doubt and he brings great stuff to the track. Truex is actually an above average driver and if he pulls it off again this year he will enter elite status. The final laps at Homestead last year holding off Busch cemented his excellence, now he is touching the next level.
 
Truex was never “Casey Mears level” as a driver. For those that payed attention he drove for 2nd tier teams the first half of his career and always outperformed his equipment. He should’ve had at least 7-8 career wins before going to Furniture Row, but lost several races at MWR due to bad pit stops or untimely yellows. But he’s always been fast and a chase caliber driver, so the fact he’s doing great in great equipment shouldn’t be that surprising.
 
Over the years I think veteran drivers were usually the best drivers, there are a lot of reasons for this including the quality of the team. A driver has to be pretty good to last long enough to become a veteran. Like every job, the longer you do it the better you become at it. As some of the veterans are cycled out of the sport there are fewer veterans competing with each other. Also, there was a period of time where the Cup drivers were taking seats in the feeder series reducing the number of drivers moving up to Cup. I am confidant that the current group of younger drivers will come into their own - several are challenging the top drivers now.
 
Thought the OSS was going to take care of all of this. Another half million down the ****ter for any team that wants to compete. The sanctioning body cannot get out of its own way. Really pathetic. Heard that JGT just dropped the $ for one. Really?
 
Revman said:
Thought the OSS was going to take care of all of this. Another half million down the ****ter for any team that wants to compete. The sanctioning body cannot get out of its own way. Really pathetic. Heard that JGT just dropped the $ for one. Really?
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You dont HAVE to buy one. Go use NASCARs
 
FLRacingFan said:
- Less "randomness" in races. Rather than random "debris" yellows altering the complexion of the race there's more of a script to follow with the stages, and teams can structure their strategies around them. That scheduled cautions now exist has led to NASCAR allowing the rest of the race to flow more freely and you don't see nearly as many late dubious cautions, and subsequently fewer random lotto winners due to strategy or restart carnivals.
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Although I'm not a huge fan of stage racing, the demise of fabricated debris cautions has been a move in the right direction and if the better teams are the beneficiary of it, so be it.
 
4tires17gals said:
Jeff gordon won 13 races in one year and few complained
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OMG are you kidding me? If social media had existed then it would have been a friggin sh*t show. People used to call in to shows and talk about how they (HMS, 24 Team) cheated and were ruining the sport. The dislike for Kyle Busch pales in comparison to the outright unabashed extreme hatred people had for JG.
 
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