McLaren are only 42 points back with ten races to go, with some Sprints thrown in as well. Checo only has 24 points in the last seven race weekends and Max hasn’t won in the last four. I think they’ll get there with ease - it would take a pretty massive turn in either direction between Red Bull and McLaren for it not to change hands at some point, imo.
You could throw either Tsunoda or Ricciardo in there and at the very least it wouldn’t be worse than what Perez is doing, so I guess they’ve just kinda sold the WCC? The more time passes the more I’m amused by the idea of Max pulling a shocker and going to Mercedes, because a lot of Red Bull’s decision-making these days reeks of either carelessness or arrogance.