Smackdown! Again!
Time for NASCAR to set egos aside, swallow some pride and invite the people who put on the show back to the table.
I'd like to believe NASCAR might do that now, but I'm not optimistic about it. And the reason is that the judge's "smackdown" concerns only the preliminary injunction skirmish, not the actual merits of the antitrust case.
Jim France wants to punish 23XI and FRM for having the audacity to challenge the Supreme Ruler Of The Stock Car Universe with a lawsuit. France wants to make an example of these upstarts... a public flogging (financially) to make sure no other team owners consider their options anytime soon. Make 'em compete as open teams, costing over $10 million per car in revenue during 2025. And kiss those SHR charters good-bye, because NASCAR won't approve their sale to 23XI and FRM.
On the other side... 23XI and FRM ask that the status quo business conditions be extended while the legal challenge winds its way through court. And the judge has agreed with this, strongly and completely... indeed a "smackdown" to prevent NASCAR's desired punishment of the wayward children of 23XI and FRM.
However, that's just the temporary business conditions during the legal process. The merits of the case are yet to be presented, argued, and decided by a jury of ordinary North Carolina citizens. Persuading the judge to delay the punishment until the legal questions are answered is one thing, but ultimately prevailing on those legal issues is another thing entirely. Unless NASCAR believes they will lose the jury verdict, I expect they will not be amenable to reopening negotiations toward genuine compromise to reach a settlement.
Regarding the merits of the case, the plaintiffs have two early rulings in their favor... (1) The judge has apparently decided that the relevant market is "elite stock car racing" rather than something much broader such as "all motorsports" or even "all professional sports and entertainment," making it much easier to prove in court that a monopoly exists. (2) The judge believes that NASCAR's infamous Section 10.3 antitrust release is likely a violation of the law, in and of itself. Will these two rulings be enough to convince the France family to abandon their legal defense and negotiate a settlement? I am doubtful.
I know several people here are predicting settlement before Daytona 500, settlement by All Star weekend, etc. They might be right,
and I hope they are, but my prediction is settlement comes much nearer the December trial date.