Chase Analytics: Kevin Harvick enters the playoffs as favorite

[LewTheShoe]

An updated Pit Rho analysis of chase probabilities is out (link to article). Most likely to be eliminated at Dover are McMurray, Dillon, Stewart, and Buescher. However, Pit Rho says there is a 64% chance that at least one of these four will advance to the round of 12. Larson and Elliott are the most at risk to drop below the 12th place cut line.

Harvick remains the heavy favorite with Keselowski next in the probabilities.

 

[Team Penske]

Harvick has always been a good race car driver, this is the first time in his career
he has had the best CC in the garage. His equipment at SHR is about the same as RCR
Kurt Bush is also a wheel man driving the same equipment as Harvick, the difference is the CC.
I also believe Kurt is wearing a bridle to keep him in check.

 

[Zerkfitting]

Kirk to Spock "Don't tell me the odds".

 

[LewTheShoe]

As a true-believer fan of Brad Keselowski, I wish I shared the opinion of the Pit Rho analysis that the 2 is the favorite to capture the Sprint Cup championship. But I don't share that view, because the Ford lack of speed will be very difficult to overcome at Homestead, even if consistency and execution get the 2 team to Homestead in the final four. I hope I'm wrong on that...

 

[Team Penske]

I liked that chart until it is proven wrong. Historical driver performances is the part that makes me go UH!

 

[LewTheShoe]

This week's Pit Rho analysis of chase probabilities rates Austin Dillon a better bet to advance than Joey Logano, which surprises me. Also, B Kez is given a 31% chance to advance, which seems high to me... but as a Kez fan I'll take it.