Here are some Monday morning thoughts and stats for you:
This race took me back to the early 2000s in more than one way. There is the obvious similarity between the way this race began and The Winston in 2001, which several people have already noted. In addition, it has been quite some time since a driver so low in points, with so few top 5s and laps led, won a race. It happened on several occasions in the early 2000s, but very rarely since then (not including plate races, rain-shortened races, and that sort of thing).
While our current field depth still doesn't compare to the early 2000s, I felt at the start of the season that we were at least inching closer in that direction, and Almriola's win is further evidence of that. Hopefully, the new car and new teams that will be in Cup next year will deepen the level of competition even further.
- Aric Almirola's win is just his 2nd top-12 finish in the last 13 races.
- Penske Racing's 3 teams finished consecutively in the top 5 (3rd-4th-5th). However, this is not the first time they've finished like that. They finished 2nd-3rd-4th at Martinsville in the spring of 2020. Since expanding to 3 teams, Penske has gotten all 3 teams in the top 5 on 4 occasions.
- Kevin Harvick has finished 4th, 5th, or 6th in nearly half the races this season (10 out of 22), but only has one finish better than 4th.
- In all but 3 of Denny Hamlin's first 10 races, he led 25+ laps and finished 4th or better. In each of his last 12 races, he has led no more than 11 laps and finished no better than 4th.
- Earlier this season, Matt DiBenedetto finished 11th, 12th, 13th, and 14th in a 4-race stretch (though not consecutively). In the last 3 races, he finished 9th, 10th, and 11th (though not consecutively).
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is racking up pairs of finishes this season. In the first two races, he finished 18th. In races 5 and 6, he finished 12th. In races 12 and 13, he finished 20th. Then over the last 8 races, he has three non-consecutive pairs of finishes (two 12ths, two 15th, and two 37ths).
- For the 3rd consecutive season, Kurt Busch picked up a somewhat unexpected win at a 1.5-mile track and followed it up with a finish outside the top 15 in the next race.
- Corey LaJoie has quietly turned Spire Motorsports into a consistent top-25 team. In the last 14 races, he has 11 finishes between 15th and 23rd.
RCR's playoff hopes certainly took a turn for the worse with Almirola's win. Instead of Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon holding down the last two spots, they're now fighting for the last spot and hoping there are no more surprise winners. Reddick has come on strong after a rough start to the season, with extremely consistent finishes. He has finished between 6th and 13th in all but three of the last 16 races. Dillon has been consistently a few spots lower than his teammate, finishing between 10th and 17th in all but three of the last 15 races.
Finally, a quick look at who else might upset the playoff picture over the next 4 races:
- Daniel Suarez has a strong record at Watkins Glen. I don't know that Trackhouse could win a race on pure speed, but if some weird strategy comes into play, Suarez is a good road racer and this team has far surpassed expectations already this year.
- The Indy Grand Prix course is difficult to predict since it is new for everyone. In last year's Xfinity race, Chase Briscoe dominated and won, but given the way his rookie year in Cup is going, I don't think it's realistic to expect that he will contend. But we certainly could have a surprise winner here. After all, few would have predicted Bell to win at the Daytona Road Course.
- Michigan could be where Kevin Harvick finally wins, since he's won 4 of the last 5 Michigan races. I wouldn't be surprised to see the RCR cars contend here either. Michigan will probably be the best opportunity for one of the drivers on the bubble to potentially solidify his playoff spot.
- Daytona, of course, is the biggest wild card. I think the biggest chance for an upset would come from Stenhouse or Jones, but certainly, anyone could win and throw Harvick or Hamlin out of the playoffs at the last moment. It's hardly fair and it hardly seems right, but that's where we are in modern-day NASCAR, and this potential scenario is exactly why Daytona has become the cutoff race.