Cup RACE thread --- Richmond

Nitro Dude said:
Absolutely. Larson and Chase is going to be there for the long haul. But, I'm really surprised that the 24 and 48 are on the outside looking in this early in the game. I don't know why the 48 team is struggling so much this year. They seem to start the race halfway competitive and then after the first pit stop they go backwards.:(
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You may want to look at the history of the CC.
 
All of the drivers who finished among the top 10 in the first and/or second stage ended up finishing in the top 14 at the end of the race. This ties the record set in the spring 2017 race at Atlanta.

Ironically, Austin Dillon finished 11th with 0 stage points in both of those races.

Never, since stage racing began, has the group of all the top 10 finishers in each stage finished any better than within the top 14 at the end of a race. However, there were some instances where this almost happened:
2019-06 Martinsville
2018-25 Darlington
2018-24 Bristol
2018-20 New Hampshire
2018-03 Las Vegas
2017-36 Homestead

In addition, there have been 6 races where all of the top 10 stage finishers finished the race in the top 15:
2019-11 Dover
2018-19 Kentucky
2018-06 Martinsville
2018-05 California
2018-02 Atlanta
2017-07 Texas
 
Careful what you wish for

NASCAR may throw a new stage in at 10 to go
 
jaqua19 said:
Richmond can be great. Really a lot of the dullness we have is due to how the gen 6 car runs on certain tracks.

I don't think it's fair to blame Richmond. NASCAR knew they messed up with the gen 6 car, hence all the package changes from 2015-today. With that many modifications, it seems natural that the car will just miss it at certain tracks.

That said I don't really think this race was dull. The 11 and 9 were having a solid battle for the lead, the 5 stormed through the field before losing the balance. The 20 was on a different tire strategy. We saw for the second week in a row, legitimate race winning speed, at times from Ross Chastain. Kurt's surprising wreck. Villain KB messing up. JGR getting it done at their best track, a lot like Roush at Michigan.

There was passing, albiet mostly due to the tire strategy.

NBC did a horrendous job covering the race though. Spent 80% of the first 250 laps covering Hamlin and Chase. And then the rest of the race covering JGR.

A solid, good, not great race, weighed down by poor coverage.


And Rick Allen/Burton handicap the rating anyway

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I have to hear why you think it’s the car. Not trying to argue, but clearly something needs to be done. Full HP with low downforce and this place was almost Brickyard levels bad with the tires.

They could only put about 25 miles on the tires last night, falloff was almost 3 seconds on a full run. That’s too much and doesn’t let drivers race each other
 
jaqua19 said:
Richmond can be great. Really a lot of the dullness we have is due to how the gen 6 car runs on certain tracks.

I don't think it's fair to blame Richmond. NASCAR knew they messed up with the gen 6 car, hence all the package changes from 2015-today. With that many modifications, it seems natural that the car will just miss it at certain tracks.

That said I don't really think this race was dull. The 11 and 9 were having a solid battle for the lead, the 5 stormed through the field before losing the balance. The 20 was on a different tire strategy. We saw for the second week in a row, legitimate race winning speed, at times from Ross Chastain. Kurt's surprising wreck. Villain KB messing up. JGR getting it done at their best track, a lot like Roush at Michigan.

There was passing, albiet mostly due to the tire strategy.

NBC did a horrendous job covering the race though. Spent 80% of the first 250 laps covering Hamlin and Chase. And then the rest of the race covering JGR.

A solid, good, not great race, weighed down by poor coverage.


And Rick Allen/Burton handicap the rating anyway

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Like always....well said. Deep down inside, I wanted Hamlin to catch Martin, and make a statement....I kind of think he already did, but two in a row to start would have been significant. I think these Playoffs will be fascinating. TRD did a hell of a job closing the gap from Pocono on as they accelerated development to catch Hendrick. Add Rick's Bondo games, and I think the cars are close....as KB said, however, Hendrick probably has a wider set up window. All of that said, I think it is game on now, and it is going to be fun. Larson needs to punch back soon IMO, but I hope he doesn't.
 
Revman said:
Like always....well said. Deep down inside, I wanted Hamlin to catch Martin, and make a statement....I kind of think he already did, but two in a row to start would have been significant. I think these Playoffs will be fascinating. TRD did a hell of a job closing the gap from Pocono on as they accelerated development to catch Hendrick. Add Rick's Bondo games, and I think the cars are close....as KB said, however, Hendrick probably has a wider set up window. All of that said, I think it is game on now, and it is going to be fun. Larson needs to punch back soon IMO, but I hope he doesn't.
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I have this terrible feeling that the 11 is about to go on a tear. Hopefully his choking ways will continue, but they seem primed and hot right now.
 
Dr_B_UNC said:
I have this terrible feeling that the 11 is about to go on a tear. Hopefully his choking ways will continue, but they seem primed and hot right now.
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I'm itching that as well.

But Darlington and Richmond have been historically good for Denny. So we'll reserve judgement for now.

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Dr_B_UNC said:
I have this terrible feeling that the 11 is about to go on a tear. Hopefully his choking ways will continue, but they seem primed and hot right now.
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I choose to look at it like this: It’ll make it all the much sweeter while he is on a roll when he does inevitably choke.
 
Dr_B_UNC said:
I have this terrible feeling that the 11 is about to go on a tear. Hopefully his choking ways will continue, but they seem primed and hot right now.
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jaqua19 said:
I'm itching that as well.

But Darlington and Richmond have been historically good for Denny. So we'll reserve judgement for now.

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My son repeatedly has reminded me of Denny's lack of prowess when the chips are down....However, the 2019 walk off in Phoenix was a step. Bottom line, I agree, he is starting to heat up, and I have always felt that if he could ride that wave before he starts thinking about it, he has a shot. I think that the cars are now close to Hendrick, but as KB noted, the Hendrick set up window is still wider. I feel like Round 2 will tell the tale. Vegas is crucial for Denny.
 
ChexOrWrex said:
He’s been on a tear all season.
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Yeah, but I don't he has been a Larson-like threat. Is he there now? Dunno. Gonna be fun to find out. When I'm not ignoring bitching about packages, the playoffs, traction compounds, attendance, and TV coverage; this is what I spend my time thinking about....and it brings me great joy. What an awesome sport. Round 2 is crucial for Denny.
 
Revman said:
My son repeatedly has reminded me of Denny's lack of prowess when the chips are down....However, the 2019 walk off in Phoenix was a step. Bottom line, I agree, he is starting to heat up, and I have always felt that if he could ride that wave before he starts thinking about it, he has a shot. I think that the cars are now close to Hendrick, but as KB noted, the Hendrick set up window is still wider. I feel like Round 2 will tell the tale. Vegas is crucial for Denny.
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I believe KyB, and genuinely wonder why the window is bigger or what he means. On DBC, they speculated earlier that rumor in the garage was Hendrick had like 16 horsepower on the field. This in turn allowed them to put more downforce in the car for maneuverability where other teams have to trim out more. I wonder if this is what he's getting at.
 
Dr_B_UNC said:
I believe KyB, and genuinely wonder why the window is bigger or what he means. On DBC, they speculated earlier that rumor in the garage was Hendrick had like 16 horsepower on the field. This in turn allowed them to put more downforce in the car for maneuverability where other teams have to trim out more. I wonder if this is what he's getting at.
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Really good point....but 16 hp? That is a huge advantage. I am thinking that it is more about the margin the new Chevy allows--particularly during a development freeze....but who knows....maybe Chevy has that. If that's the case, they have underperformed.....I mean the only car in the field designed specifically for this rules package, a development freeze which paralyzes the competition, and 16 hp?
 
The Chevys have so much of a mechanical advantage that Elliott blew the doors off the 3 disadvantaged Toyotas in front of him.

Oops.
 
Revman said:
Really good point....but 16 hp? That is a huge advantage. I am thinking that it is more about the margin the new Chevy allows--particularly during a development freeze....but who knows....maybe Chevy has that. If that's the case, they have underperformed.....I mean the only car in the field designed specifically for this rules package, a development freeze which paralyzes the competition, and 16 hp?
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They've had the speed, often extremely poor execution. Chase and the 9 team alone have made more critical errors this season than I think all his previous combined.

It may have been 12 horsepower, but yeah. Either way, it was huge. I think one host said "8 hp" and the other two chimed in "I've heard more like 12-16." I can't provide exact link. It was earlier this season...
 
Revman said:
Yeah, but I don't he has been a Larson-like threat. Is he there now? Dunno. Gonna be fun to find out. When I'm not ignoring bitching about packages, the playoffs, traction compounds, attendance, and TV coverage; this is what I spend my time thinking about....and it brings me great joy. What an awesome sport. Round 2 is crucial for Denny.
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The speed is there a bit, and I think Denny's head is as good as it's been.

Richmond he was fast. But the 9 was as fast and the 5 was faster before they lost the handle.

5 was also faster than the 11 at Darlington so I'm not quite sure Denny has the speed the 5 does, but it doesn't matter, he only needs it a Phoenix.

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Revman said:
Really good point....but 16 hp? That is a huge advantage. I am thinking that it is more about the margin the new Chevy allows--particularly during a development freeze....but who knows....maybe Chevy has that. If that's the case, they have underperformed.....I mean the only car in the field designed specifically for this rules package, a development freeze which paralyzes the competition, and 16 hp?
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I absolutely love when the forum is engaged in these discussions.

Okay, I don't know if THE advantage is in horsepower alone, but having a horsepower advantage, even though it's not huge does leave a bit more wiggle room to experiment, since they have speed to fall back on.

But I don't think it's it. If KB is right, and he usually is, I think this is moreso about mechanical grip in the same way JGR had the aero grip stuff figured out from 2016-2019.

The HMS are just making more grip, and as a result, generating more power. If this is the case, what KB is saying here is that the JGR cars need to hit it *right* to match the pace that HMS has. Earlier in the season, JGR couldn't match it, even when they did hit is *right*. KB in the 600 clearly had it hooked up and he was wheeling his absolute ass off just to keep pace and race with the 9 and 24, 10 seconds behind the 5.

Now, they can match that speed, but they have to hit it right and be precise with what they do. HMS can do more with their setups because the cars are faster.

This is interesting info from KB. Because it's telling us that

1.They HAVE to get it right, nail it, and work harder to find something they don't have. They did that at their best track, Richmond. And they weren't really necessarily faster than the 5 and 9. They just executed much better.

2. It's an admittance that HMS still has more inherent speed than JGR right now. That is huge. Because it tells us that as of right now, they still aren't where they need to be. And the clock is ticking. I also think they're talking about the 5, more than the organization as a whole though. The Nashville car was going to be the phoenix car, and that was probably the most dominant car of the entire season really.

Just my take.

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jaqua19 said:
I absolutely love when the forum is engaged in these discussions.

Okay, I don't know if THE advantage is in horsepower alone, but having a horsepower advantage, even though it's not huge does leave a bit more wiggle room to experiment, since they have speed to fall back on.

But I don't think it's it. If KB is right, and he usually is, I think this is moreso about mechanical grip in the same way JGR had the aero grip stuff figured out from 2016-2019.

The HMS are just making more grip, and as a result, generating more power. If this is the case, what KB is saying here is that the JGR cars need to hit it *right* to match the pace that HMS has. Earlier in the season, JGR couldn't match it, even when they did hit is *right*. KB in the 600 clearly had it hooked up and he was wheeling his absolute ass off just to keep pace and race with the 9 and 24, 10 seconds behind the 5.

Now, they can match that speed, but they have to hit it right and be precise with what they do. HMS can do more with their setups because the cars are faster.

This is interesting info from KB. Because it's telling us that

1.They HAVE to get it right, nail it, and work harder to find something they don't have. They did that at their best track, Richmond. And they weren't really necessarily faster than the 5 and 9. They just executed much better.

2. It's an admittance that HMS still has more inherent speed than JGR right now. That is huge. Because it tells us that as of right now, they still aren't where they need to be. And the clock is ticking. I also think they're talking about the 5, more than the organization as a whole though. The Nashville car was going to be the phoenix car, and that was probably the most dominant car of the entire season really.

Just my take.

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Great post....and as you know, I share your appreciation for this type of conversation.....It makes sense that JGR "nails it" at their best tracks, and therefore was certainly the equal of--if not the class of--the field. I do believe that HMS has the better car, but to your point, JGR only needs Phoenix. Having said that, I don't think Denny is better than Chase or Larson there....MTJ could be the sleeper there. JGR is not where they want to be, but the question is are they close enough? FWIW.....I think the horsepower is close, but as we know, it's the mapping that is the key. This is really about the new Chevy, and the advantage that it brings.
 
jaqua19 said:
The speed is there a bit, and I think Denny's head is as good as it's been.
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....but I wonder if it is as good as it needs to be to win this thing....
 
Revman said:
....but I wonder if it is as good as it needs to be to win this thing....
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Don't really know. He's overdue. And the last two years he's been a gracious loser.

If he gets beat this year, I don't think it will be due to self sabotage.

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Revman said:
Great post....and as you know, I share your appreciation for this type of conversation.....It makes sense that JGR "nails it" at their best tracks, and therefore was certainly the equal of--if not the class of--the field. I do believe that HMS has the better car, but to your point, JGR only needs Phoenix. Having said that, I don't think Denny is better than Chase or Larson there....MTJ could be the sleeper there. JGR is not where they want to be, but the question is are they close enough? FWIW.....I think the horsepower is close, but as we know, it's the mapping that is the key. This is really about the new Chevy, and the advantage that it brings.
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I think Truex is the sleeper there.

To your point, yeah, they just need to be better at Phoenix. But if it's best stuff vs best stuff, HMS still has a slight advantage if it's just one race.

It's looking like we are gonna get a HMS vs JGR championship, a 2v2, should be fun.

Truex has history and bonus points on his side now. Hamlin has had enough pace to point his way in when if he doesn't win. Larson is a lock. And I think the last spot goes between Elliot, Busch and Blaney.

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jaqua19 said:
Don't really know. He's overdue. And the last two years he's been a gracious loser.

If he gets beat this year, I don't think it will be due to self sabotage.

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I kind of do. He has vacillated between the focused isolated Denny to the entourage partying Denny for the Final. What's left? ......I'm not sure that I want to know. The Championship race is not the place to find yourself. I remember when he won Phoenix in 2019 in the walk off, and then immediately said that he didn't need to win the Championship to feel complete about his career. I was in Phoenix--jacked as hell--when I heard that.....I'm like WTF? How about a little killer instinct? Gabehart wasn't pleased either. He has no idea who he needs to be to win this. Maybe he finds it.....I kind of hope he does because I think he has a ton of talent. He is fun to watch right now.
 
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