Appreciate the kind words. The problem with silly season (and rumors) is that lots of info is "unreliable"...even coming from inside the garage. There are so many games being played, it's tough to really put a finger on what's fact vs what's a smoke screen for other purposes (like interviewing a driver and sending out signals that he's your guy just to make the incumbent driver sign for less money. I believe that's what's been happening with the 5...but again, not based on fact, just actions).
I don't think there's much tension between SHR and HMS at the driver level...at least it doesn't feel different. I'm sure there's tension at the executive level. Maybe even some at the engineering/data share level as well, but I don't get involved in any of that stuff. I do think that there's a code within manufacturers. You don't ever want to be in their doghouse, they have a ton of influence. In this order, a driver wants himself to win the race, then a teammate, then someone of the same manufacturer, then someone who doesn't mess up the Chase for himself or a teammate, then "other."
I've heard so many rumors it would be impossible to know what actually came close to happening. I rarely post them here because most of them don't happen, and for lots of different reasons. Like I said, some are smokescreens, some the desire was there but they fall apart, others are just lies, or a bad game of drunk person telephone. One of the reasons I even mentioned the rumor of RC buying out Mears and putting Ty in that car is because that "initiative" went really far down the road two years ago (like, REALLY far down the road) so when it sprung up again when I was in Richmond, it was worth sharing. One thing I can tell you for certain...if MTJ hadn't been "let go" from MWR, Ryan Blaney was going to be in the 78. They were already preparing his contract when MTJ suddenly became available.
The whole problem with the Erik Jones thing is that Coach had 5 drivers signed, and only 4 cars to put them. EJ might stay more than one year at FRR...but only because they just can't vacate one of JGR's rides. If a seat does become available, then yes, EJ would go to JGR, and Suarez would go to the 77. Who would have vacated the JGR seat...I don't know. I think I mentioned this earlier, but if the second FRR car had fallen apart completely (and for about 2 or 3 weeks it was definitely on life support - credit David Wilson with the save) then Denny would have been out of a job. That much had already been determined as a contingency plan.
Things do change really quickly in the garage, sometimes for the craziest reasons. One minute Barney Visser is low-balling Kurt Busch on an extension with FRR because Kurt has no other options, the next minute Tony gets injured in a side project and Gene says "F*ck you" to Tony and creates a 4th car. There are also so many things taken to the "we need your signature on this paper now" level, then fall apart. Most of which are sponsor related - coming in to support a program or switching teams and taking drivers with them, etc. It's a stressful existence for sure.
I don't know what Cole's future is. I've never met him, but I've heard he's a pretty good kid. I have met his father...and that's all I'll say about that...
I think BobbyFord answered that last question well. It really does depend. A great setup (and that includes knowing what makes a great setup for your driver...every driver is different...some love it loose, some tight, some want no give in the steering, some you can turn the steering wheel completely all the way around and only move a foot on the track, etc) is the most important thing. If an elite team nails the setup, they're going to have a good day. I think where driver talent really comes into play the most is when the setup is missed, or other circumstances (bad tires, drastic weather conditions, etc) play a role. A talented driver will help you out of jams better than mediocre ones. It's really hard to win a race when "things go wrong" on your car...but a really talented driver will at least figure out how to get a top 10 out of the mess, where a less talented driver will finish 23rd,
The two teams I know most intimately in the garage are the 78 & the 41. If I could only steal ONE person from each team to take to my 4 car operation...it can be anyone...2 engineers, 2 crew chiefs, 2 drivers, gas man...etc...one person from each team...I would steal Cole Pearn and Kurt Busch. I think each one is the most important to their respective operations.