First four out

MRM

MRM

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Since we have a final 4 prediction for the Chase, how about predicting the first 4 out? Here are mine.

Aric Amirola
A.J. Allmendinger
Greg Biffle
Kyle Busch
 
I wont predict but the Gibbs stable may be the first to go :(


Matt might last a while with a little luck
 
Speedbowl14 said:
Kurt, Denny, AJ, Greg
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Actually I won the 2012 RF championship . I am not one to brag and it humbles me have to discuss my superior brilliance that allowed me to so utterly annihilate, dominate, destroy, and vanquish the competition prior to Homestead in 2012 when I won the championship.

It was a bittersweet time cause I can still remember the groupies (that was the mommas and sisters of many of my opponents) crying all week about how bad I shamed their sons and brothers in front of the whole entire RF audience.

It was so humbling and caused me to spot the field to much in 2013, after the mascare I put on them in 2012 when I won the RF chase championship. I hurt so bad that I even had pity on their momas and sisters, who was otherwise so very fortunate to be a groupie for the 2012 champion.

I was worried about SlicedBread22 becoming a fan boy and going on and on about me with a thread a day.
That is nice, but not my style. I prefer being the classy humble 2012 RF champion.

Hopefully I will not have to discuss this again, it is a little embarrassing even for me the accomplished 2012 champion. I consider myself just another member like everyone else except for being the 2012 RF chase champion.
 
Greg said:
Actually I won the 2012 RF championship . I am not one to brag and it humbles me have to discuss my superior brilliance that allowed me to so utterly annihilate, dominate, destroy, and vanquish the competition prior to Homestead in 2012 when I won the championship.

It was a bittersweet time cause I can still remember the groupies (that was the mommas and sisters of many of my opponents) crying all week about how bad I shamed their sons and brothers in front of the whole entire RF audience.

It was so humbling and caused me to spot the field to much in 2013, after the mascare I put on them in 2012 when I won the RF chase championship. I hurt so bad that I even had pity on their momas and sisters, who was otherwise so very fortunate to be a groupie for the 2012 champion.

I was worried about SlicedBread22 becoming a fan boy and going on and on about me with a thread a day.
That is nice, but not my style. I prefer being the classy humble 2012 RF champion.

Hopefully I will not have to discuss this again, it is little embarrassing even for the 2012 champion. I consider myself just another member like everyone else except for being the 2012 RF chase champion.
Click to expand...
Greg who? Lol Also I came here in the off season after 2012...... Don't worry though.. if you want to make a thread about me after this season when I beat out Chex and DUN for the cup I will be just as humble... with merely a :D
 
Two heavy hitters could get eliminated in the first round. Amarillo, and Dinger are the early exit defaults if they make it to the great 8, it will be a huge over achievement . Biffle, Edwards, and Newman are good enough point racers to get thru the first round. Newman might make the great 8, but that is the ceiling.
I think Edwards has a good shot at making the great 8, he has been the great over achiever this year imo (at least so far). Getting the most out of the Rousch cars.

So here is my list of heavy hitters that will not last long.

One of the Busch Brothers, will not make it to final 12, and neither will make it to the great 8.

Kurt is able to handle the pressure, but the team consistency isn't good. I see some DNFs. He needs wins more than anyone, not likely to point his way through the early rounds.
But from an elimination standpoint he is high risk either way. They have the inconsistencies this year, but from this group I think Kurt is the most capable of pulling an out of nowhere Stewart 2011. He can win anywhere, good on just about any type of track.
That along this year's inconsistencies or dnfs makes him the toughest call or wildcard in the chase, Stewart at least had some season long consistency in 2011 that the 41 doesn't have.

Kasey Kahne will probably make it thru the first round, but that is about all. He just seems to be able string off enough bad luck or whatever runs together to make it not happen. He is the on/off type and the 2nd biggest wildcard behind Kurt for that reason, but there is a big drop off between the two. Kahne is very good driver, but the idea of him runing the table is incredulous.

Kyle just isnt good in the Chase, one early DNF, or any added drama will start the psycho circus.

Hamlin has a shot at the final 8. But It has been a long time since Denny could dominate a race, and Talladega is his best shot at winning, and no race is more dicey, a lot to overcome. Grubb is the biggest strength.

Joey could dominate and win the whole thing but he is the highest risk driver in the upper group, I just think something will keep them from the final four.

Dale Earnhardt Jr will make a solid run but not the final four at Homestead.

The real battle will be between JJ, Gordon, Harvick, Kezalowski and Kenseth, yes Kenseth. He is steady and could sneak in, but he is obviously OTA weaker than the others.
The one thing that gives a him a strong shot is his consistency and at least one non winner will advance from the eliminatior round to the final race at Homestead (races 33 to 35, 3 races with four advancing) . But still the same he will be hurting at Homestead in the Toyota. He will need the Hendrick and Penske built cars to miss the set up at Homestead enough to let a top 5 work for him.
Consequently he is Brian's biggest nightmare.

Aside from the Kenseth Toyota non winning speed, the final four race will be a crap shoot among the other three.
 
let it be jimmie, jeff, junior, and kez. then watch the new brain france chase rules, including provisional into the final round!!!
 
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LOL you dont have to wonder anymore.

As expected, Almirola, Allmendiger and both Roush cars.
 
IDK, Loudon is a short track, both the chase Roush's were in the top 15 the first race, Dinger and Almirola were on the bottom 18th and 23rd, but the jury is still out for Almirola IMO, he was having three top tens in a row when it blew up. I think it might have to go to the third race in the first round for Almirola at least.
 
Reck said:
LOL you dont have to wonder anymore.

As expected, Almirola, Allmendiger and both Roush cars.
Click to expand...

Really gotta feel for Almirola, makes you wonder if he would've actually had a shot at advancing past this round. I wouldn't have thought so, but I also wouldn't have thought he'd be running amongst the top 5 with less than 40 laps left today. We'll really find out now, anything less than a win from him in the next couple of races spells almost certain elimination.
 
Not likely to happen with Alimrola blowing up, but the way the chase is set up with Talladega in the middle, I could have seen a team like his make the final 8 if they survived past round one and won Talladega.
 
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