to me it is more like predicting the weather. You have Conditions that are right for a caution, just like the weather. : #1. close to pit time anyway, and the leader is way out front, 80% chance of a phantom debris caution. #2. looks like it might come down to a fuel mileage race. 60% if leader is close to the pack, 80% if they are half a lap ahead. #3. if they are spread out and have been for a while, any spin, no matter how sleight, 100% caution. same thing for any contact 100% debris caution. Bunch up the field. #4. any race 30 laps or less from the end, with a spread out field..100% debris caution. By this time in the race, the cars are so mangled from restarts that a debris caution can be thrown anytime, and the camera can show the actual debris on the track. hot dog wrapper, bearbond tape, rollbar padding, door foam, or an actual piece of car or metal patch panels that crews purposely fix to fall off so they can get a caution and work on the car more.
It works better when when we have helpers at the track throwing hot dog wrappers if a driver we don't like gets too big a lead.
