How on Earth can you call the Chase "a lottery"?

cheesepuffs

cheesepuffs

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If anything, the current Chase format is the toughest way there has ever been to win a Cup championship. You have to perform every. single. week. or risk elimination. You cannot have a "bad track". There are zero excuses. It's harder than ever and you have to earn it all the way.

Why and how can some of you call it "random" or a "lottery"? It's nothing remotely close to random. There is absolutely nothing random about who wins this championship. Nothing.
 
Individual results are magnified in miniseasons of three races.

See Jimmie Johnson failing to advance after a $5 part broke at Dover last year after finishing 11th and 6th in the first two races.

Or how it's not how well you do, but in what order you do well. Brad Keselowski finished in the Top 5 in six of the ten Chase races in 2014 yet wasn't even a finalist because of Martinsville. Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin combined for four such results throughout that Chase. Same goes for Jeff Gordon, who finished 1st or 2nd in five of the ten Chase races yet wasn't even a finalist.
 
completely agree with the OP and I was going to say as much on the Harvick thread. This format rewards one thing and its not luck, it's pure speed. You have to be able to run up near the front for 10 weeks straight, no excuses and no "luck" involved in that. If you get in a wreck or have reliability issues, tough. You shouldn't be running near the backmarkers anyways.
 
cheesepuffs said:
You have to perform every. single. week. or risk elimination. You cannot have a "bad track". There are zero excuses. It's harder than ever and you have to earn it all the way.
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No, you only have to perform at Homestead. Any top-tier team can make it to Homestead given that they perform as a top-tier team.
 
Acs said:
completely agree with the OP and I was going to say as much on the Harvick thread. This format rewards one thing and its not luck, it's pure speed. You have to be able to run up near the front for 10 weeks straight, no excuses and no "luck" involved in that. If you get in a wreck or have reliability issues, tough. You shouldn't be running near the backmarkers anyways.
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Exactly. The fact that is magnifies everything is a good thing. It means errors are even more costly. Meaning that whoever wins had to be basically perfect the entire time. One slip up and you're toast. It's a grueling and intense way to crown a champion, yet tons of members here complain on a daily basis that it's a joke format.
 
People call the current chase format a "lottery" because they don't like it, and "lottery" is a pejorative term in the context of a skill-based competition, so they use it as a way to show their scorn. I agree that it is a misuse of the term because a lottery is random and the chase is not. Skill has a lot to do with determining who wins the chase, including driver skill and team set up and execution skill. If the chase was a lottery, each of the 16 drivers would have an equal chance of winning.

However, luck does play a major role in the chase. Because everything depends upon a "three race mini-season," the negative impact of any stumble is magnified. The best driver can get eliminated in a heartbeat. My bottom line conclusion: You must perform at a high level with skill and execution to win the chase, but even with great skill and execution, you still need good luck to get there.
 
Speedbowl14 said:
No, you only have to perform at Homestead. Any top-tier team can make it to Homestead given that they perform as a top-tier team.
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This is so far off the mark it's ridiculous. You can't even make it to Homestead if you aren't nearly perfect. Every round is super difficult to get through with no room for error.
 
ToyYoda said:
Newman and Hamlin proved two years ago that you can slip through the cracks and make it to Homestead.
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That's like saying Kenseth "slipped through the cracks" to win the '03 title.

Newsflash, they all earned it. Newman and Hamlin had made it through every round past their competition fair and square.
 
cheesepuffs said:
That's like saying Kenseth "slipped through the cracks" to win the '03 title.
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It's not even remotely like saying that. Kenseth earned the most points over the course of that season. Newman and Hamlin essentially got to Homestead in '14 because Gordon and Kez had incidental contact in one of the mini-seasons.
 
cheesepuffs said:
You have to perform every. single. week. or risk elimination. You cannot have a "bad track".
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No, you don't, and yes, you can. You only need to win once in the first round to advance. You can finish 40th in the other two races. Repeat for rounds two and three. From there, you can technically win the championship at Homestead by finishing as low as 37th, depending on what happens to your competitors.

Gods, I hate myself.
 
cheesepuffs said:
Exactly. The fact that is magnifies everything is a good thing. It means errors are even more costly. Meaning that whoever wins had to be basically perfect the entire time. One slip up and you're toast. It's a grueling and intense way to crown a champion, yet tons of members here complain on a daily basis that it's a joke format.
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That encourages risk aversion, in my opinion. Did the Final Four campaigns of Ryan Newman, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., and Jeff Gordon really wow anyone the past two years?
 
Charlie Spencer said:
No, you don't, and yes, you can. You only need to win once in the first round to advance. You can finish 40th in the other two races. Repeat for rounds two and three. From there, you can technically win the championship at Homestead by finishing as low as 37th, depending on what happens to your competitors.
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And I think a win locking you into the next round is fantastic incentive.

We bitch about points racing until we get points racing elmimated, and now all we want back is points racing. Puh-leeze.
 
cheesepuffs said:
And I think a win locking you into the next round is fantastic incentive.

We bitch about points racing until we get points racing elmimated, and now all we want back is points racing. Puh-leeze.
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Were points racers not present in the two championship foursomes we've had so far?
 
cheesepuffs said:
And I think a win locking you into the next round is fantastic incentive.

We bitch about points racing until we get points racing elmimated, and now all we want back is points racing. Puh-leeze.
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We? Please avoid the generalizations. I never bitched about it, and you likely won't find a Kenseth fan who does ;)

I agree that it's an incentive, but a driver definitely doesn't need to be excellent for 10 consecutive weeks. Every third week and decent 10th week will do it. That leaves 70% of the time he can suck like a 20-amp Hoover.
 
FLRacingFan said:
That encourages risk aversion, in my opinion. Did the Final Four campaigns of Ryan Newman, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., and Jeff Gordon really wow anyone the past two years?
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The competition is way too tight during the last ten races to hold anything back. If you think any teams strategy going into the chase is to hold back and be cautious to make it to Homestead then you'd be incorrect. That mindset would never win a title in this format.
 
cheesepuffs said:
The competition is way too tight during the last ten races to hold anything back. If you think any teams strategy going into the chase is to hold back and be cautious to make it to Homestead then you'd be incorrect. That mindset would never win a title in this format.
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It seems to me that the people who made it a point to race hard head-to-head (Gordon, Keselowski, Logano, Kenseth) paid the price for it in some manner.
 
cheesepuffs said:
The competition is way too tight during the last ten races to hold anything back. If you think any teams strategy going into the chase is to hold back and be cautious to make it to Homestead then you'd be incorrect. That mindset would never win a title in this format.
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I'm not saying they'll hold anything back, just that they don't have to be on top of their game 10 consecutive weeks. I agree they'll definitely try, but win the first race in each round and there isn't as much stress if you crash out of the next two.

And I had no problem with Newman's old school points racing approach. If NASCAR doesn't like it, they need to reward wins with more points and then have those points carry over from round to round. Points racing and rewarding wins can be combined.
 
cheesepuffs said:
And when Newman made it everybody bitched non-stop. But we allow a win and you're in scenario and people hate that too. Literally nothing makes some people here happy.
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Ratchet up the points scale.

That would be my first priority...if I were in charge. As long as you have that as your base I think you could make a variety of formats fit around it.
 
cheesepuffs said:
And I think a win locking you into the next round is fantastic incentive.

We bitch about points racing until we get points racing elmimated, and now all we want back is points racing. Puh-leeze.
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All I've heard since April is points. Is Tony gonna get in the top 30? Oh he's in...will Buescher get in the top 30? Will Newman, Blanely, McMurray...blah blah blah blah get in the top 16? It's nauseating and confusing when you're trying to track the points on 1/4 of the field...and this year wasn't even that bad. Last year points was all I heard! Every driver wants to be consistent for these next 9 weeks. What is consistency? POINTS RACING! The fact that most races in this final stretch are won by Chase drivers is because 40% of the field is a Chase driver...and because the other 60% doesn't have a rat's ass chance of winning week-in and week-out anyway. It's the cream of the crop doing what they've done all season...not drivers "putting it all on the line".

In this Chase, drivers want to be CONSISTENT. Not one of these drivers will risk finishing 30th for a win. Not one. Anyone who says they would is ignorant or lying through their teeth.

In a season-long championship we'd be down to 5 guys with a realistic shot at the championship and the drama BS on TV wouldn't start for another 6 weeks. I miss that.
 
Speedbowl14 said:
All I've heard since April is points. Is Tony gonna get in the top 30? Oh he's in...will Buescher get in the top 30? Will Newman, Blanely, McMurray...blah blah blah blah get in the top 16? It's nauseating and confusing when you're trying to track the points on 1/4 of the field...and this year wasn't even that bad. Last year points was all I heard! Every driver wants to be consistent for these next 9 weeks. What is consistency? POINTS RACING! The fact that most races in this final stretch are won by Chase drivers is because 40% of the field is a Chase driver...and because the other 60% doesn't have a rat's ass chance of winning week-in and week-out anyway. It's the cream of the crop doing what they've done all season...not drivers "putting it all on the line".

In this Chase, drivers want to be CONSISTENT. Not one of these drivers will risk finishing 30th for a win. Not one. Anyone who says they would is ignorant or lying through their teeth.

In a season-long championship we'd be down to 5 guys with a realistic shot at the championship and the drama BS on TV wouldn't start for another 6 weeks. I miss that.
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Did you not watch Texas Chase race 2014?
 
Lottery is a polite word when we could think of other less civil words for it
 
Calling it a lottery is an exaggeration by Chase haters. If it was literally a lottery the on-track season would be over and NASCAR would pick the champion out of a hat.
 
cheesepuffs said:
The competition is way too tight during the last ten races to hold anything back. If you think any teams strategy going into the chase is to hold back and be cautious to make it to Homestead then you'd be incorrect. That mindset would never win a title in this format.
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I think there will be a lot of conservatism in the Round of 16 and in the Round of 12. The objective will be to avoid mistakes and avoid misfortune. And those who do experience mistakes or misfortune will switch into desperation mode... go for a win to bail you out from prior poor results. I think going "all out for the win" will be the operative strategy for the final four races. JMO.
 
Charlie Spencer said:
And I had no problem with Newman's old school points racing approach. If NASCAR doesn't like it, they need to reward wins with more points and then have those points carry over from round to round. Points racing and rewarding wins can be combined.
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This is what Nascar really needs, IMO.
 
cheesepuffs said:
Exactly. The fact that is magnifies everything is a good thing. It means errors are even more costly. Meaning that whoever wins had to be basically perfect the entire time. One slip up and you're toast. It's a grueling and intense way to crown a champion, yet tons of members here complain on a daily basis that it's a joke format.
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Not just members here but those out in the real world and who knows how many left the series because of it.
 
cheesepuffs said:
And I think a win locking you into the next round is fantastic incentive.

We bitch about points racing until we get points racing elmimated, and now all we want back is points racing. Puh-leeze.
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I can't speak for others but I NEVER EVER complained about the classic points system. I was happy with how it was but could have lived with awarding more points for winning and a few other tweaks.
 
cheesepuffs said:
And when Newman made it everybody bitched non-stop. But we allow a win and you're in scenario and people hate that too. Literally nothing makes some people here happy.
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Hang on a second as I never complained once about Newman as it would have been cool for him to win the lottery without winning a race. I don't follow the last 10 races and never see the last race of the year but it would be my hope that someone that has not won a race wins it all.
 
NasNYG567 said:
Calling it a lottery is an exaggeration by Chase haters. If it was literally a lottery the on-track season would be over and NASCAR would pick the champion out of a hat.
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I think I may have been the one that originally called the illegitimate method of crowning a champ a lottery, the caution clock "the egg timer thing" and I know I have referred to Nascar's charity in giving unearned laps back as "spitting them out like a Pez Dispenser. All I can say to you and anyone else who really likes the Nascar of today and the chase is please tell your friends and have them watch and attend races as the masses have spoken with their wallets and eyeballs.
 
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