Hurricane Helene

sdj

sdj

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We are fortunute that this bad ass is due west of us at this time in the Gulf Of Mexico. We are 80 miles east of the Gulf and the storm center is 80 or so miles west of that and we are seeing 20 with gusts to 40 MPH winds. WE are good to go but, the folks in the Big Bend of Florida are expecting a 20 foot tidal surge sometime around 7 PM.

Please put these folks in your prayers as this is a life altering event.
 
A bit of information.

Along the coasts of Florida there are what is called barrier islands, basically made of sand. Lots of folks over time have build homes on these islands. A lot of folks do not know how these barrier Islands came to be.

The answer: Reoccurring HURRICAINES and tidal surges over time!
 
I don't think there's any way to hyperbolize how bad this storm is in Western NC. Just a biblical disaster.

And a lot of people who didn't heed the warnings because "the experts are always wrong." I hope the death toll isn't massive.
 
sdj said:
A bit of information.

Along the coasts of Florida there are what is called barrier islands, basically made of sand. Lots of folks over time have build homes on these islands. A lot of folks do not know how these barrier Islands came to be.

The answer: Reoccurring HURRICAINES and tidal surges over time!
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That's an issue in NC as well. Homes collapsing into the ocean every week from surge events.

And yet every inch of available land is being developed even still.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
And a lot of people who didn't heed the warnings because "the experts are always wrong." I hope the death toll isn't massive.
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A sheriff in FL attributed at least five deaths to ignored evac orders. Said surviving neighbors said the deceased were told the surge wouldn't be as bad as forecast. Expects to find more who tried to shelter in attics as water rose.
 
Charlie Spencer said:
A sheriff in FL attributed at least five deaths to ignored evac orders. Said surviving neighbors said the deceased were told the surge wouldn't be as bad as forecast. Expects to find more who tried to shelter in attics as water rose.
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They did their own research.

That’s my concern about western N.C.

Last night, the “back in my day” crowd was complaining about schools being closed “over a little wind and rain.”

One of them got completely sideways with me when I said this wasn’t a storm to mess with and that I deal with these storms all the time where I live.

Can’t stand some of these tough guys sometimes. Mother Nature is undefeated. You can drive trucks and lift weights all you want, that ain’t saving you from a flood.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
Can’t stand some of these tough guys sometimes. Mother Nature is undefeated. You can drive trucks and lift weights all you want, that ain’t saving you from a flood.
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The tough guy attitude doesn't help much when the family is on their fifth day of standing in line for bottled water and looking forward to getting cold-water cat baths in the school gym before sleeping on the floor again, with no end in sight. In hindsight, putting up with your in-laws outside the affected area suddenly looks pretty damn good. If only the roads were open and you could get gas...
 
Charlie Spencer said:
The tough guy attitude doesn't help much when the family is on their fifth day of standing in line for bottled water and looking forward to getting cold-water cat baths in the school gym before sleeping on the floor again, with no end in sight. In hindsight, putting up with your in-laws outside the affected area suddenly looks pretty damn good. If only the roads were open and you could get gas...
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I have plenty of experience with hurricanes. I would NOT have stayed for this one if I was in Western NC.

But I'm betting there was a snowball effect. If businesses weren't taking it seriously, nobody really could.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
I have plenty of experience with hurricanes. I would NOT have stayed for this one if I was in Western NC.

But I'm betting there was a snowball effect. If businesses weren't taking it seriously, nobody really could.
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Hugo caught me by surprise in 1989. We lived almost 100 miles inland. It wasn't our first storm but no one had a clue a storm could travel fast enough to still be Cat 2 that far in, or even Cat 1 in Charlotte. We'll sleep in the car a few hundred miles away before that happens to us again, and be happy to be there.

That's exactly what the warnings reminded me of on Tuesday. 'Large storm will move inland quickly and effects will be felt as far inland as southern Appalachians'.

So to some extent I can understand not comprehending what these storms can do without first hand experience, at least in areas 300 miles from landfall. And the NHC missed the forecast track, with it going further east than expected. It probably didn't interact as expected with the steering low over the Midwest. I guarantee they'll be studying this one for a while.

But people on the coast should know better. It's one thing if you don't have a working vehicle or issues that require you to stay even if you want to go. But to voluntary stare down a Cat 4 as an excuse to get drunk and 'Protect muh property!'? You get what you've earned, but don't take the kids with you or give the first responders PTSD.
 
Charlie Spencer said:
Hugo caught me by surprise in 1989. We lived almost 100 miles inland. It wasn't our first storm but no one had a clue a storm could travel fast enough to still be Cat 2 that far in, or even Cat 1 in Charlotte. We'll sleep in the car a few hundred miles away before that happens to us again, and be happy to be there.

That's exactly what the warnings reminded me of on Tuesday. 'Large storm will move inland quickly and effects will be felt as far inland as southern Appalachians'.

So to some extent I can understand not comprehending what these storms can do without first hand experience, at least in areas 300 miles from landfall. And the NHC missed the forecast track, with it going further east than expected. It probably didn't interact as expected with the steering low over the Midwest. I guarantee they'll be studying this one for a while.

But people on the coast should know better. It's one thing if you don't have a working vehicle or issues that require you to stay even if you want to go. But to voluntary stare down a Cat 4 as an excuse to get drunk and 'Protect muh property!'? You get what you've earned, but don't take the kids with you or give the first responders PTSD.
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There's a combination of people not knowing what these storms are capable of and the whole tough guy thing.

I can't stress enough how dire the language was and how many people I know on Facebook who completely scoffed at them. The National Weather Service, area meteorologists, and government agencies were telling people this was going to be catastrophic beyond description.

Thoughts beyond this are for The Podium...
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
There's a combination of people not knowing what these storms are capable of and the whole tough guy thing.

I can't stress enough how dire the language was and how many people I know on Facebook who completely scoffed at them. The National Weather Service, area meteorologists, and government agencies were telling people this was going to be catastrophic beyond description.

Thoughts beyond this are for The Podium...
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This isn't all about you bud. There are people in poor areas that didn't have to funds to vacate and were at the mercy of the storm. Get off your high horse, we get the point.
 
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StandOnIt said:
This isn't all about you bud. There are people in poor areas that didn't have to funds to vacate and were at the mercy of the storm. Get off your high horse, we get the point.
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I was careful to exclude those people from my criticism:
Charlie Spencer said:
It's one thing if you don't have a working vehicle or issues that require you to stay even if you want to go.
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I was mobilized for four hurricanes with the SC National Guard. Yes, unfortunately there are people who don't have the resources to evacuate even though they want to. Those who could have left but chose to stay place an avoidable drain on post-storm emergency resources. After one storm, we had someone ask if they could borrow a generator because he had $500 of meat that would go bad in his freezer. There was a gas station that was able to pump but had more than doubled the price, cash only; then the owner called saying he couldn't deposit the money, and would we provide security?

On the other hand, we had two steak houses and a Baskin-Robbins call and tell us to come get their inventory before it went bad. We used our mobile kitchen to cook the steaks for the evacuation shelters. Most of the ice cream went there too, although I confess we did skim a few containers off for ourselves.

My experience is that those who literally CAN'T relocate are outnumbered by those who could have but either chose not to or waited too late. It's also that those who plan on riding out the storm often expect the world to operate as normal the next day, and grossly underestimate the duration of third-world conditions.
 
Ashville NC was over 450 miles from where the hurricane came ashore and is at an elevation of over 2000 ft. I can't help but wonder that some folks never thought it would be that bad. I don't remember ever a hurricane doing that much damage that far inland.
 
StandOnIt said:
Ashville NC was over 450 miles from where the hurricane came ashore and is at an elevation of over 2000 ft. I can't help but wonder that some folks never thought it would be that bad. I don't remember ever a hurricane doing that much damage that far inland.
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I think that is exactly the case. I live about an hour to the east and I never expected anything like it.
 
StandOnIt said:
Ashville NC was over 450 miles from where the hurricane came ashore and is at an elevation of over 2000 ft. I can't help but wonder that some folks never thought it would be that bad. I don't remember ever a hurricane doing that much damage that far inland.
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That's a question people should be asking. Why?
 
StandOnIt said:
Ashville NC was over 450 miles from where the hurricane came ashore and is at an elevation of over 2000 ft. I can't help but wonder that some folks never thought it would be that bad. I don't remember ever a hurricane doing that much damage that far inland.
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NOAA issued an extremely rare statement on Wednesday about the storm.

UPDATED: September 25, 2024. Reporters: This is a rare news release from NOAA for an operational weather event. We urge the news media to continue focusing the public’s attention on the major impacts from inland flooding expected along the path of Helene well after landfall.
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The major flood risk includes the urban areas around Tallahassee, metro Atlanta and western North Carolina, including Asheville. Recent rainfall in these areas, especially the southern Appalachians, have left the grounds saturated and the river tributaries running high. Additional rainfall from Helene will exacerbate the existing flood risk. Extreme rainfall rates (i.e., torrential downpour) across the mountainous terrain of the southern Appalachians will likely inundate communities in its path with flash floods, landslides, and cause extensive river and stream flooding.
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www.noaa.gov

Communities need to prepare for catastrophic, life-threatening inland flooding from #Helene, even well after landfall

Widespread power outages likely from hurricane and tropical storm-force winds
www.noaa.gov www.noaa.gov


Shared by the local NWS:



The National Weather Service sent out alerts with the most dire language they've used since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Wednesday:

This has the potential to be an extremely rare event with catastrophic flash-flooding that hasn't been seen in the modern era, with major to record breaking flooding likely. Numerous landslides are expected in the mountains, with a couple of large, damaging landslides or slope failures.

Wind gusts up to 60-65 mph will be possible across the western portion of the County Warning Area. The combination of strong wind gusts and saturated soils will likely result in widespread downed trees, with numerous power outages to follow. Isolated tornadoes are possible now through at least 8 am Friday.



Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or flooding. It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.
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Thursday morning:

Dangerous catastrophic flash-flooding is expected along numerous streams, especially in the North Carolina/South Carolina mountains and northeast Georgia. Flooding of mainstem rivers is expected, with major to possibly historic flooding likely near the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Confidence is high in landslides and debris flows occurring during the heaviest rainfall tonight through at least 12 pm Friday.
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Thursday afternoon: A very rare "URGENT" bulletin is sent out nothing that this will be the most catastrophic event in over a century.

*URGENT MESSAGE*
This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen in the western portions of the area in the modern era. Record flooding is forecasted and has been compared to the floods of 1916 in the Asheville area. The impacts from this event are expected to be greater than Tropical Storm Fred from August 2021, the mountains in 2004 from Frances and Ivan, and in Upstate South Carolina the Saluda River Basin flooding from 1949. We plead with everyone that you take every single weather warning very seriously through the entirety of this event as impacts will be life-threatening and make sure to have multiple ways to receive the alerts. The protection of life and property is the overall mission of the National Weather Service, and we pledge to stand by the folks of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. We cannot stress the significance of this event enough. Heed all evacuation orders from your local Emergency Managers and go to a storm shelter if you do not feel safe at your current location.

Hurricane Helene will make landfall later this evening near the Big Bend of Florida. Significant to catastrophic, life-threatening flooding will occur along and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Historic flooding will be possible in this area as an additional 9-14" of rainfall will be in store. Many landslides will occur as a result, with a few large and severely damaging slope failures or debris flows are likely.

Possible hurricane-force gusts in the North Carolina mountains, northeast Georgia, and the western portion of Upstate South Carolina. 60-70 mph wind gusts possible elsewhere. The combination of strong winds and super saturated soils will lead to widespread trees down and numerous power outages.
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I deal with hurricanes and tropical storms every single year. I have NEVER seen language like this, not even during Florence.

I do not know what the news media looked like in the western part of the state. But I know Brad Panovich of the NBC station in Charlotte and that Ethan kid who runs the North Carolina's Weather Authority FB page (and does an incredible job) were both saying they were very concerned because people were not taking this threat seriously.

I've been seeing stories being shared by friends and by the NCWXA page. One story was from a young woman who was scared for her life and noted that she did not have the opportunity to leave at all because her employer made her work until after 9pm.
 
rd45usa said:
That's a question people should be asking. Why?
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An unusual track that people simply believed was not possible.

There was another low pressure system that caused something of a Fujiwhara effect, altering the path of Hurricane Helene and amplifying its impacts.

Helene was also a very large hurricane. We were outer bands from Helene from 700 MILES AWAY.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
An unusual track that people simply believed was not possible.

There was another low pressure system that caused something of a Fujiwhara effect, altering the path of Hurricane Helene and amplifying its impacts.
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Same thing we saw in SC in 2015 with TS Jochiam. A non-tropical low, adjacent to a tropical cyclone and counter-rotating. The low pulls water from the tropical storm but isn't warm enough to carry it very far, so it dumps it. The warm TS has plenty of water to spare; indeed, if it's still over water, it's absorbing more.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
Multiple national news channels reported this morning on the frustrations over the federal response.
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There's always going to be frustration. It's human nature to complain under these circumstances. People with little access to the surviving world don't have access to the news of the full extent of the damage. The world shrinks to your immediate family, friends, and surroundings. There are all these disaster resources, why aren't they responding quicker in my area? Often it may be a couple of days before roads are cleared so agencies can get in and start assessing and prioritizing. Asheville was completely isolated for two days.

Been there.
 
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