I created a spreadsheet, and formula to rank the final 10 races of every champion since 2004. Formula, spreadsheet and comments below. Discuss!

jaqua19

jaqua19

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((winsx2)+(top 5s)+(top 10s)/(avg finish))+((converted total points scored)/10)

Some important averages.

Average champion rating: 37.70
Tony Stewart's 2 Championship average: 38.75
Kyle Busch 2 Championship average: 34.80
Jimmie Johnson Average rating: 39.04
Jimmie Johnson 5 straight average: 39.55

Some notable observations.

2017 Truex, wow.

Martin Truex Jr in 2017 and Tony Stewart in 2011 are the only two champions to have a playoff run better than Johnson's AVERAGE.

Tony Stewart's best playoff run is a top 5 playoff run.

Only Truex and Johnson have put together single playoff runs better than Tony's average. Hot take: Tony Stewart is the 2nd greatest champion of the Chase era, not Kyle Busch.

Truex's one bad race in 2017 was Talladega. The wreck there, resulting in a 25th place finish, kept him from having 10 top 10 finishes in the Chase, furthering his all time playoff run into history.

2009 may be Peak Jimmie Johnson. Outside of the 38th place finish at Texas when he was wrecked by Hornish, he had a 3rd place average finish and was probably going to have 10 top 10s.

Truex's 9 top 5s is a record.

9 top 10s have only happened 5 times, Truex once, Johnson 4 times.

Kyle Busch's final 10 races in his 2 Championship runs were inferior to 13/17 champions. WOW. This may be the most shocking statistic.

Brad Keselowski's Championship run was below average.

The Busch Brother's have 3 of the 4 worst playoff runs.

Chase Elliot's championship run was just above average.

8/17 times, the champion won at least 3 races.

Jimmie Johnson and Truex are the only Champions to post at least 7 top 5s.

No Champion has ever finished with 8 top 5s.

8 top 10s appear to be the mode amongst Champions.

Interestingly, Carl Edward's 2008 and 2011 runner ups would have made this list twice without being at the bottom.

His 2008 run would have been 33.87.

Carl Edwards 2011 runner up to Tony Stewart was 40.30

Carl Edwards loss in 2011 was superior to every champion outside of Truex, Johnson, and Stewart.

At his best, Carl Edwards was more elite than most of the champions, he just was misfortunate enough to be racing against two of the 5 best Championship runs of all time.

It took two top 5 all time runs to beat Carl Edwards.

OUCH

I had fun with this. Discuss!
e3955f0883642bd2431fd0737e519ef7.jpg


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Last edited:
Truex had one of the most deserving championship years in recent memory. Ironically, Kyle Busch didn’t win the title any of his best seasons (2008, 2017, 2018). 2017 really hurt because Kyle won 5 races the second half of the year, won 3 of the 10 chase races, and had the best car at homestead but finished 2nd to Truex because he got behind on a late pit stop. That one still hurts. 2018 he was the most consistent and tied for the most wins that year, as well as the regular season champ, then unloaded with a brick the last race of the year. 2015 was a byproduct of this dumb championship format; and 2019 he was the regular season champ as well so not nearly as fluky. I view both as make up ones for one of his 3 best seasons.

Kevin Harvick is one of the best of my lifetime and would be a legend if not for bad luck and the dumb championship formats we have; coupled with wasting a lot of his career with a middling RCR. Edwards was the 2nd most screwed by the lottery format and I believe that’s why he said f it and went into farmer Thanos mode
 
Thank the nascar gods Truex didn't cut a tire in the 2017 finale. Edwards got hosed big time for having a championship. NASCAR is fortunate that Harvick came thru for them in 2014, in retrospect if he doesn't he's sitting with zero championships right now, all based on 1 Homestead race. 2020 is probably the most glaring example, it could be argued some of these other years when there's a weakness on DNF's or something, but not when the guy has 9 wins combined with the lowest avg. finish in the last 20 years.
 
DaBiff1618 said:
Truex had one of the most deserving championship years in recent memory. Ironically, Kyle Busch didn’t win the title any of his best seasons (2008, 2017, 2018). 2017 really hurt because Kyle won 5 races the second half of the year, won 3 of the 10 chase races, and had the best car at homestead but finished 2nd to Truex because he got behind on a late pit stop. That one still hurts. 2018 he was the most consistent and tied for the most wins that year, as well as the regular season champ, then unloaded with a brick the last race of the year. 2015 was a byproduct of this dumb championship format; and 2019 he was the regular season champ as well so not nearly as fluky. I view both as make up ones for one of his 3 best seasons.

Kevin Harvick is one of the best of my lifetime and would be a legend if not for bad luck and the dumb championship formats we have; coupled with wasting a lot of his career with a middling RCR. Edwards was the 2nd most screwed by the lottery format and I believe that’s why he said f it and went into farmer Thanos mode
Click to expand...
2008 he was beat by Edwards across the board, who was put away by Johnson.

Kyle Busch's 2017 playoff numbers were 3/4/6. 11.2 avg finish, 350 points. 35.14 rating.

His 2018 playoff numbers were 2/4/7, 348 points with a 10.2 avg finish. 34.90 score.

So you're right, 2017 was his best playoff season.

So in actuality, even in his superior seasons, he really didn't perform much better in the final 10 races compared to his title seasons.

2017: 35.14
2015: 35.06
2018: 34.90
2019: 34.60

So even his better/best playoff run in 2017 is inferior to most champions.

Not trying to be a wet blanket, just interesting to look at. His 4 best playoffs are all pretty even, and according to this data, about championship calibur. He just couldn't get it done in the finale in 2/4 of those runs.


As for Edwards, certainly screwed, but I take solace in the fact that it took two of the five best playoff runs to beat him twice.

As an Edwards fan, him being a bridesmaid for so long made me question if he really was good enough to be a cup Champion. I don't question it anymore.

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jaqua19 said:
((winsx2)+(top 5s)+(top 10s)/(avg finish))+((converted total points scored)/10)

Some important averages.

Average champion rating: 37.70
Tony Stewart's 2 Championship average: 38.75
Kyle Busch 2 Championship average: 34.80
Jimmie Johnson Average rating: 39.04
Jimmie Johnson 5 straight average: 39.55

Some notable observations.

2017 Truex, wow.

Martin Truex Jr in 2017 and Tony Stewart in 2011 are the only two champions to have a playoff run better than Johnson's AVERAGE.

Tony Stewart's best playoff run is a top 5 playoff run.

Only Truex and Johnson have put together single playoff runs better than Tony's average. Hot take: Tony Stewart is the 2nd greatest champion of the Chase era, not Kyle Busch.

Truex's one bad race in 2017 was Talladega. The wreck there, resulting in a 25th place finish, kept him from having 10 top 10 finishes in the Chase, furthering his all time playoff run into history.

2009 may be Peak Jimmie Johnson. Outside of the 38th place finish at Texas when he was wrecked by Hornish, he had a 3rd place average finish and was probably going to have 10 top 10s.

Truex's 9 top 5s is a record.

9 top 10s have only happened 5 times, Truex once, Johnson 4 times.

Kyle Busch's final 10 races in his 2 Championship runs were inferior to 13/17 champions. WOW. This may be the most shocking statistic.

Brad Keselowski's Championship run was below average.

The Busch Brother's have 3 of the 4 worst playoff runs.

Chase Elliot's championship run was just above average.

8/17 times, the champion won at least 3 races.

Jimmie Johnson and Truex are the only Champions to post at least 7 top 5s.

No Champion has ever finished with 8 top 5s.

8 top 10s appear to be the mode amongst Champions.

Interestingly, Carl Edward's 2008 and 2011 runner ups would have made this list twice without being at the bottom.

His 2008 run would have been 33.87.

Carl Edwards 2011 runner up to Tony Stewart was 40.30

Carl Edwards loss in 2011 was superior to every champion outside of Truex, Johnson, and Stewart.

At his best, Carl Edwards was more elite than most of the champions, he just was misfortunate enough to be racing against two of the 5 best Championship runs of all time.

It took two top 5 all time runs to beat Carl Edwards.

OUCH

I had fun with this. Discuss!
e3955f0883642bd2431fd0737e519ef7.jpg


Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I would really like to know how you define a top 10 run?
A top 5 run means you finished 5th or better.
So does a top 10 run also include top 5 finishes OR finishes
between 6th to 10th??
 
Team Penske said:
I would really like to know how you define a top 10 run?
A top 5 run means you finished 5th or better.
So does a top 10 run also include top 5 finishes OR finishes
between 6th to 10th??
Click to expand...
I just mean by the data/statistic I created.

This formula I created factors in wins, top 5s, top 10s, average finish, and total points scored over the final 10 races. All of these factors come together to create a single statistic.

By top 5 Championship run, I just mean the 5 best ranking stats out of all the champions. Truex's 42 and change was best, then Johnson's 41.56, etc.

Edwards lost in 2008, and 2011. Jimmie Johnson's 2008 playoff run was one of the 5 best playoff runs we've seen in the Chase. As was Tony Stewart's.

A top 10 run I would consider 6-10. Because this is an overall statistic meant to measure the driver's body of work of the final 10 races.

Make sense?

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Interestingy, I ran the numbers for Jeff Gordon's 98 overall season. Over the course of 33 races, he had 13/26/28, which is stupid. Average finish of 5.7, which is stupid, a converted 1329 points gives that season a 40.87 rating.

So, this just sort of sets a standard for level of performance. While a 40.87 over an entire season is much more difficult to execute than over the final 10 races, it's worth noting that 2017 Truex, 2007 Johnson, 2008 Johnson and 2013 Johnson all performed at a level over 10 races that was superior to Gordon's 98 overall body of work.

I'm really curious about how Gordon's best 5 year stretch scores against Johnson's 39.59 5 straight Chase stretch. Pretty close, I'd imagine.

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