Is Jimmie Johnson's 6 time hopes, Toast?

With 5 to go, is Jimmie's chase hopes done, or toast?

  • Yes, stick a fork in him he's done

    Votes: 10 30.3%

  • Agree, but not 100% sure

    Votes: 8 24.2%

  • No, I still think it is a 50/50 thing

    Votes: 11 33.3%

  • No way, I am a believer and Jimmie is still going to pull it off

    Votes: 4 12.1%
  • Total voters
    33
Greg

Greg

2014 RF YAHOO CHAMP Your leader
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Is Jimmie Johnson's 6 time hopes, Toast?

1. Yes, stick a fork in him he's done

2. Agree, but not 100% sure


3. No, I still think it is a 50/50 thing


4. No way, I am a believer and Jimmie is still going to pull it off.


Jimmie Johnson must gain the following per race, x 5 races. Remember if he doesn't meet this standard against all, he will not be champ.

-gain 2.2 points per race on Brad K
-gain 1.6 points per race on Kurt B
-gain 2,2 points per race on Stuart
-gain 3.6 points per race on Kyle B
-gain 5.8 points per race on Kenesth
-gain 6.2 points per race on Harvick
-gain 7.0 points per race on Edwards


Note: In a case were a driver has more wins than Johnson, the calculation requires Johnson to have one more point total, since he would lose in tiebreaking situation.
In a case were a driver has won less than Johnson, the calculation only requires him to tie, since he would get the tiebreaker.

The reason to note all in front of Johnson is to not only demonstrate a deficit of 35 points to Edwards the leader, but to show the layers of complexity. He not only has to catch Edwards, but he must also gain 30 on Harvick, as well as gaining on the other five drivers ahead of him.
 
-DRIVER /gap/W's
-Carl Edwards leader/ 1 win
-Kevin Harvick -5/ 4 wins
-Matt Kenseth -7/ 3 wins
-Kyle Busch -18/ 4 wins
-Tony Stewart -24/ 2 wins
-Brad Keselowski -25/ 3 wins
-Kurt Busch -27/ 2 wins
-Jimmie Johnson -35/ 2 wins
 
I am not going to count him out until he is mathematically eliminated. I don't know if he's done or not but I'm sure glad that I get to see him race another week. Nasty hit. Glad he's OK. I said it before and I'll say it again. Screw all of you COT haters! Thankfully all of the safety mechanisms in place seemed to have done their job.
 
If there were only one or two drivers between him and the points lead I'd say he's 50/50. But, the top three in points are running very well and KyBu isn't out of this by a long shot.

Yes, I'm a Kenseth fan but I truly believe that he has had the best car thus far in the chase and that he's the guy to beat right now.

If the last 5 years have tough us anything, it's to never, ever completely count out the #48 team.
 
Edwards is averaging 34.8 points per race
Finishing 9th is worth 35 points (the 34.8 number includes all or the bonus points, he probably averaged closer to tenth place plus some bonus points). So if Edwards continues at the same rate, Johnson will need to finish 2nd in all of the remaining events to catch him, or at least score 42 points per race, possible with a 3rd and a bonus point.
 
looks like a roush year to me. hopefully kenseth but edwards looks like the guy to beat.
 
Stewart Fan said:
This isn't about Joey Logano:D
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lmao! funny how quickly he was brought in to be the next best thing. i still believe he can drive, but he needs to go to the truck series where he can learn to race.

back to jimmie: glad to see his hold on the championship is over, but that hit he took last night kinda scared me.
 
Bucky Badger said:
It was refreshing to hear Jimmie and Chad get into it on the radio
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WOW...that is all I can say about that....

Anyway, I do think that JJ is done for the year...I have been saying for weeks now that I think each week one more driver will fall out of "contention" for the title. Who would have ever guessed after last weeks performance this week that would be JJ. Even if he is not mathematically out you have to look at facts. With guys like Edwards and Harvick finishing strong every week and many times making something out of nothing, JJ would have to go on a roll like he did in 2007 and win about 4 in a row and he would STILL need for some of the top guys to have a lot of bad luck.
 
I think there are 5 races of crazy sheet left. He's not dead, but Chad needs to step up and give him real fast cars for the rest of the season.
 
I would not wager on Jimmie-Chad winning the title this year - but as has been said, until they are eliminated, they still have a chance.
 
Flashback..... 2006..... Leaving Charlotte with 5 races to go, Jimmie Johnson sat 7th in points 146 points behind then leader Jeff Burton. The other five drivers that were ahead of him were Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Mark Martin, Dale Earnhardt Jr, & Denny Hamlin. Those 146 points then translated to 36 points today. Jimmie Johnson is currently 35 points out. Most everyone counted him out in this same position in 2006. We all know now that it is more than doable. Likely to happen again, no. More than possible, absolutely.
 
Can he make a comeback? Yes, but everyone else is going to have to roll over and play dead and I don't see that happening.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
Flashback..... 2006..... Leaving Charlotte with 5 races to go, Jimmie Johnson sat 7th in points 146 points behind then leader Jeff Burton. The other five drivers that were ahead of him were Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Mark Martin, Dale Earnhardt Jr, & Denny Hamlin. Those 146 points then translated to 36 points today. Jimmie Johnson is currently 35 points out. Most everyone counted him out in this same position in 2006. We all know now that it is more than doable. Likely to happen again, no. More than possible, absolutely.
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Finished off with a win, then 3 second place finishes and cruised to a 9th place finish at Homestead. Lets not forget 2007, when Jeff took the lead with 5 to go, then JJ won 4 in a row. With the new points system, wins give you an even greater point advantage.

But this will be harder to do. Carl and Matt are running real strong, and JJ isn't. He doesn't get to race at Atlanta, one of his best tracks, and instead has to survive Talladega, one of his worst tracks.

If he doesn't win this year, he'll wish he had listened to Chad when he was told to dial it back.
 
I think that golden horseshoe has caused a bowel obstruction. JJ is running like crap.
 
SpeedPagan said:
Nah, not by a long shot. He may not win the Championship this year, but he'll def. win #6 and #7 before his career ends.
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I remember a time not too long ago when I thought Gordon was a shoe in to get 7 titles. Never made it to 5. Nothing is for sure.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
I hope Jimmie does win 7, and 8 for that matter.
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if he wins seven i will readily debate the fact that he isn't close to being the driver that petty and earnhardt were.

if he wins eight, i won't have to argue. because it will completely discredit the chase format.
 
Jimmie is a 5-10th place finisher without Knauss, the same as Gordon is without Evernham. It's all about the relationship with the crew chief. The (most recent) older point system favored Johnson and the tracks with which he ran well. The new point system reflects a more accurate overall season performance. IMO.
 
Yeah, BF. But as has been said many many times, If Gordon had a better crew chief...if Joonyer had a better crew chief...if Kurt had a better crew chief, if Pee Wee had a better crew chief...

This is a TEAM SPORT! Jimmie-Chad is the best in the business.
 
mickeysimzac said:
I remember a time not too long ago when I thought Gordon was a shoe in to get 7 titles. Never made it to 5. Nothing is for sure.
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Yea, and Gordon totally won 5 championships in a row too! :sarcasm:

Can we please stop comparing Gordon & Johnson? As far as I can tell, none of them are quitting the sport yet, and they both still have a chance to win Championships.

Personally I'm starting to wonder if switching the racing teams around in the Hendrick shops was such a good idea. Maybe they should switch back. Put Earnhardt Jr. back with Mark Martin, and Gordon & Johnson can go back to being in the same shop.

robbybee said:
Yeah, BF. But as has been said many many times, If Gordon had a better crew chief...if Joonyer had a better crew chief...if Kurt had a better crew chief, if Pee Wee had a better crew chief...

This is a TEAM SPORT! Jimmie-Chad is the best in the business.
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Well, that'll remain to be seen if they're still the best in the business after this season.
 
My thoughts on Jimmie, I don't think he's done but for sure he's got his work cut out for him in that he needs to win prolly 2 more times & have the 99, 29, & 18 all have bad days. If the 48 has a bad day at Talladega & Carl & Kevin both finish in the top 5, that may be it. I seriously doubt he'll be able fart thunderbolts out of his arse in 4 races...
 
robbybee said:
Yeah, BF. But as has been said many many times, If Gordon had a better crew chief...if Joonyer had a better crew chief...if Kurt had a better crew chief, if Pee Wee had a better crew chief...

This is a TEAM SPORT! Jimmie-Chad is the best in the business.
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No... They were the best. Jimmy and chad are over. They wont win this year, they will struggle next year and chad will leave. Then jimmie will be another has been just like Jeff Gordan
 
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